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How do you start a recession?
Snopes -- "Credit Canard" ^ | Snopes: "Collected via e-mail, September 2008"

Posted on 10/04/2008 11:01:54 AM PDT by OldNavyVet

Snopes says: "On 30 September 1999, the New York Times published an article entitled "Fannie Mae Eases Credit to Ease Mortage Lending" by Stephen A. Holmes. The complete text of the article is available online."

(Excerpt) Read more at snopes.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy
KEYWORDS: depression; recession
The coming recession wasn't visible four weeks ago, so its appearance just before a US Presidential election smells to high heaven.

Nonetheless, the primary cause of today's problem started long ago -- between the two Bushes -- and Snopes provides some background.

The Snopes article is entitled "Credit Canard," and the link to it is

http://www.snopes.com/politics/business/easescredit.asp

In addition, the reference NY Times article is at

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C0DE7DB153EF933A0575AC0A96F958260

1 posted on 10/04/2008 11:01:55 AM PDT by OldNavyVet
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To: OldNavyVet

How do you start a recession? Put demoncRATS in charge. Take a look at the state CA and WA and the nation as a whole.


2 posted on 10/04/2008 11:22:47 AM PDT by lilylangtree (Veni, Vidi, Vici)
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To: OldNavyVet

Yes, it was visible - all the way back to last December.

Many people here on FR just have not wanted to believe it.

The NBER has been saying that there has been a non-zero probability (like 30 to 50%) that we started a recession last December to sometime in Q1 2008 - and they’ve been saying this for months. But again, people here on FR didn’t want to believe it, claiming that this was a plot by the MSM to denigrate the Bush economy.

Unemployment claims have been over 300K for months, which is a strong recessionary indicator. When one reads down into the GDP reports, not just the headline numbers, there have been signs for months that things were not going well. The history of recent recessions is that when we see a 0.3% (or greater) jump in unemployment (as we did from last December->January), that recessions have followed. The history of 20th century recessions shows that recessions follow price shocks in oil/energy.

So the signs have been there, warning us that a recession was entirely possible. The GDP headline numbers, due to strong export growth, have obscured a rapidly declining domestic economic activity for two quarters now. People keep pointing to the GDP headline number, but they refuse to read the guts of the BLS and BEA reports, which weren’t all perfume and roses.

Add in the fact that we’ve had a significant contraction of credit, we have housing deflation, that housing is a HUGE component of the domestic economy, that the housing sector was responsible for a huge component of the employment growth in the last five years... and you could see signs 10 months ago that things were going to get dicey.

Now, with the finance sector imploding, we’re going to have for-real deflation in real estate, stocks, commodities, you name it.

Given all the economic signs we’ve had for 10 months, the economy has done amazingly well to get this far. But there was very little doubt in my mind that sooner or later, we were going to see a recession so bad that not even the most optimistic of economists (eg, Kudlow) could deny it.

And now it is upon us. Consumer discretionary spending is contracting at a very rapid rate, and consumer spending is leaping up. The price shock of gas, coupled with the contraction of credit, is forcing people to tighten their belts rapidly.


3 posted on 10/04/2008 11:31:32 AM PDT by NVDave
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To: OldNavyVet
How do you start a recession should not be the question. It should be “How do you get out of a recession”? Obama does not have the answer (raising taxes and letting the Bush tax cuts expire).
4 posted on 10/04/2008 11:40:52 AM PDT by kempo
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To: OldNavyVet

BTT


5 posted on 10/04/2008 11:42:55 AM PDT by Inyokern
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To: kempo

You start a recession, which turns into a depression, when you send the jobs of the people overseas to third world countries. This is what has happened here in the USA,and Yes, this has happened over a long period of time, so the people themselves do not realize what has happened to us all.

As long as we have a job, we forget the people who have been without a job for so long. Some people are in gangs and in prison, because they have not figured out a way to live without a job.


6 posted on 10/04/2008 11:50:52 AM PDT by tessalu
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To: tessalu

This recession did not start yesterday or the day before, it started when people began losing their jobs, so stop scratching your heads and trying to figure out just who did what.


7 posted on 10/04/2008 11:53:01 AM PDT by tessalu
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To: OldNavyVet

It’s been visible for years. Many of us have been pointing it out for years. But we were called “doom and gloomers.”


8 posted on 10/04/2008 11:53:08 AM PDT by mysterio
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To: tessalu

This recession did not start yesterday or the day before, it started when people began losing their jobs, so stop scratching your heads and trying to figure out just who did what.


9 posted on 10/04/2008 11:53:26 AM PDT by tessalu
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To: OldNavyVet

I am shocked. Usually Snopes is pretty left wing.


10 posted on 10/04/2008 11:59:52 AM PDT by markomalley (Extra ecclesiam nulla salus)
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To: tessalu

If you haven’t had a job in the last twenty years you haven’t been looking for one.


11 posted on 10/04/2008 12:26:26 PM PDT by kempo
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To: tessalu

Talking to yourself in public is the first sign of insanity. When you keep mumbling the same thing over and over, it is another step down on the spiral.


12 posted on 10/04/2008 5:10:24 PM PDT by ApplegateRanch (The Great Obamanation of Desolation, attempting to sit in the Oval Office, where he ought not..)
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To: lilylangtree
Take a look at the state CA and WA

I'm thinking Michigan...

13 posted on 10/04/2008 5:26:05 PM PDT by Lonesome in Massachussets (The Democratic Party strongly supports full civil rights for necro-Americans.)
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To: Lonesome in Massachussets

I read in the paper today where MA is looking to the Fed Govt for a bailout along with CA. Currently WA state is running a $3 billion dollar deficit (from mismanagement) but haven’t ask the Fed Govt for a bailout YET.


14 posted on 10/05/2008 12:38:46 PM PDT by lilylangtree (Veni, Vidi, Vici)
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To: lilylangtree

Massachusetts state government got hooked on real estate transfer tax and capital gains, which have more or less dried up. There’s not much slack in the budget. Governor Patrick has asked all executive departments to cut there expenses by 7.5%.

State taxes as percent of income are about in the median, nationwide. Massachusetts residents are more alergic to taxes and public sector unions are held in disrepute. Overall the Commonwealth’s economy is pretty robust. Michigan seems moribund, they don’t want to change.


15 posted on 10/05/2008 4:24:23 PM PDT by Lonesome in Massachussets (The Democratic Party strongly supports full civil rights for necro-Americans.)
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