by some 48% to something in the 20's for Gov. Palin.
Well, here are the facts:
Posted on 10/04/2008 7:25:30 AM PDT by bobsunshine
Does anyone think Governor Sarah Palin is not a force in this year’s presidential race? Here’s something for folks to consider when looking at the political landscape and the polls. The usually ignored VP debate drew a historic audience - jumping into first place for any VP debate and into 2nd place for all Presidential debates:
Update: Looking at the per network totals at Drudge I noticed PBS and C-SPAN may not be included in the tally, so this could be the all time record breaker! Updated: PBS ads another 3.5 million viewers, making this debate number one even over the 1992 previous record holder - end update.
(snip)
How is it the VP debate dwarfed the top of the ticket debate this year and all years past? Anyone going to try and claim all those viewers took time out of their busy lives to watch Joe Biden? Let’s get real here, 69.9 million people wanted to see Governor Sarah Palin. Biden cannot draw that kind of crowd. McCain doesn’t draw these crowds, even Obama doesn’t. Let’s put that into perspective using 2004 as the baseline; more people tuned into the debate than voted for Bush or Kerry (62 million and 59 million, respectively) in the last election.
Do I think Biden won the debate by large margins? Not likely, he wasn’t the main draw. Palin can bring out 23,000 - 60,000 supportive Americans just by coming to town. Biden has no such drawing power. Yes, a lot of nervous liberals showed up, but that number would be the less than or equal to the number who showed up to watch Obama - their hero. I ain’t buying polls who show Biden winning, they are woefully out of whack. The math just doesn’t work.
In addition, how is it McCain-Palin are sinking in the polls but the RNC is bringing in record donations in September? That is just not going to happen together. If the nation was swarming to Obama-Biden they would be taking their donations with them.
When a mathematical model is broken it usually is detected when its outputs are inconsistent with parameters or drivers in the system. A great example of this is the Global Warming predictions being spewed by models based on rising CO2 levels, while actual temperatures are dropping with rising CO2 levels. That is a clear indication the mathematical model is broken, not that reality is broken.
So we have all these polls showing enormous leads in states like VA which are actually larger than the national numbers. VA is at best 50-50 state, Obama is not going to be leading nationally by 6% and by 10% in VA.
Something is going on because ALL the polls are showing the same drift towards Obama. But Palin is not losing crowds, the RNC is not seeing lowered donations - just the opposite is happening! Palin just out drew Reagan, Obama, Bush, Clinton, Gore, etc. Is this America turning away from Palin? Not possible.
I think the polls are suffering from one side not participating in the polling process. Polls rely on equal interest across all the voter categories for their models to accurately reflect the national mood. If the polls are not measuring one half of the electorate the results will go out of balance in favor of the opposite half. There is no way to avoid this in polls - you cannot measure what you cannot sample. In science there is the situation of where a measurement disturbs the system under test. In the end you are measuring the effect of the measurement, not the system, and you get biased or garbage results.
Back to why I think it is the polling process, not the nation of the mood, causing the results. Engineers use sanity checks to independently verify measurements and products of a model or algorithm. If the independent verification fails (like McCain-Palin sinking in the polls but growing in audience interest) then we know something is wrong.
Right now there are two independent verification data points that indicate the polls probably have some serious problems. RNC money is not dipping in concert with the polls, and Palin’s ability to draw crowds is not diminishing either. In fact, we could point to a 3rd independent indicator that additionally shows the polls have problems, and that is the fact Obama’s crowds are shrinking and smaller than McCain-Palin’s in the same city within one week of each other. If the trend was to Obama and away from McCain-Palin this would not be happening. Note that all these indicators happened in September, or late September, so they are all in the exact same time frame.
Like I said, this is a standard scientific and engineer tool to discover if a mathematical model is producing good results. And I would bet there may be other indicators out there that might show a serious problem with the polls we are seeing. Now, it could be a problem with the math model itself, or it could be in the sampling process. Since all the polls, based on different internal models and extrapolation methods, are showing the same trend it cannot be the math inside the polls. That leaves only one area that could be hitting all the polls the same - and that is participation in the sampling process.
This would be a historic situation if true (as if we haven’t seen history being made all year in one way or another). When will we know if this is what is happening? After the polls start closing and we start seeing results coming in. If it is a sampling problem because one side of the political spectrum basically refused to participate, then Obama will either squeak out a win or lose. Only time can prove this theory.
Wasn’t Rush the one who said they have changed the poll samples so there are more libs and fewer Republicans? The polls heavily favored Kerry in the last election. I remember one TR person who said, “Well, probably tomorrow Kerry will be President.”
Deafen your ears and fight on.
That said, there is internal stuff IN the polls that suggests something is fishy: one poll shows McCain winning the "suburbanite" vote---critical in places like OH and PA. Another shows Obama underperforming Kerry in the Jewish vote by 15%; another shows him getting only 80% of the Dem vote, while McCain is getting about 90% of the GOP vote; yet other internals show them splitting independents.
Now, EITHER THE POLLS ARE RIGHT OR THEIR INTERNALS ARE RIGHT. The only way both can be right is if they are weighting the samples so heavily in the Dems' favor that it's giving them the answer they want. As Strata says, we'll know soon enough.
I watched and recorded the debate on PBSHD so I could see it in HD. My only other choice was NBCHD, and I didn't want to have to watch NBC or MSNBC commentary.
I hope you are right, I do notice way more McCain signs in this area than I ever saw Bush signs. I know that is not an effective way to measure, but it certainly makes me feel better. I pray the pools are all fixed, it is hard to believe this many people watched and no one’s mind was changed, but Tues. we should see some better numbers.
I watched the debate just last night and i was very dissapointed. I didn’t hear Regeanite comments from Palin, I heard McCainite comments from her.
Sarah is having an effect the MSM doesn't want to talk about.
Of course the polls don’t make any sense. I live in a very conservative part of Colorado and there has absolutely not been a shift to Nobama. Many think McCain is a crazy RINO, but not enough to go to the dark side. I believe the MSM want conservatives to be depressed thereby repressing voter turn-out. If McCain allows Palin off the leash, I believe conservative voter turn out will be off the charts!
In a sample of several thousand they "SWAG" that this is the breakdown of 70,000,000 viewers. I don't buy it for a minute.
Explain this: Rasmussen has McCain only up 8 in Mississippi, but only has Obama up 4 in MAINE. Now if McCain is only up 8 in Mississippi, how in the hell can he be only 4 behind in Maine?
There is no doubt that Palin is the biggest draw among the three candidates. She is the best communicator and the one who seems to energize her audience the most. Whether McCain wins or loses, Palin is going to be a political force to be reckoned with. In all fairness, Geraldine Ferraro also drew a huge audience in her debate with Bush 41 in 1984. That didn’t help Mondale who was destroyed. The real question is how does Palin’s popularity translate into votes for McCain. The jury is still out.
More solid than usual black support for the Democrat ticket in MS?
There is another group who I believe is looking for a reason to vote for McCain. Something that makes the close-pin vote acceptable.
That said, McCain has to take the bull by the horns. I hope he does.
Then the Dem voters stay home!
The polls are just taking into account the voter registration drives the Obama campaign is working on.
In other words... FRAUD.
Drudge has a breakdown of who watched where. Make of it what you will.
SARAH SHOW: 69,989,000 WATCH...
TOTALS
ABC 13,130,000
NBC 12,820,000
CBS 11,100,000
FOXNEWS 11,098,000
CNN 10,685,000
FOX 4,500,000
MSNBC 4,412,000
I do not believe the polls. I have two friends who are strictly Dems. and where voting for Obama because they wanted to change the government. But after watching the VP debate they said they like Palin's views and how she understands them. One has a small business and understands that Obama would be raising their taxes. They are now both voting for McCain.
Mark Twain famously asserted that "There are three kinds of lies: Lies, damned lies, and statistics!"Any FReeper knows that journalism is not objective. But because the American body politic has been immersed in the fraudulent claim of journalistic "objectivity" for a century and a half, we all have to keep reminding ourselves, and each other, of that fact.
At bottom, a reporter publishing what he calls the results of a scientifically valid poll is the same person who will accentuate the negative about any conservative. Due consideration has to be given to the possibility that the numbers we are seeing are simply examples of Mark Twain's Type III lie.
The media midgets probably think that those 69 million viewers tuned in just to catch a glimpse of the magnificent Joe Biden.
The world’s almost seen website (drudgereport.com) has a poll with over 500,000 votes. Palin is beating Biden with 70% of the vote.
http://www.drudgereportarchives.com/dsp/polls_results/20081003_palin_biden_debate.htm
The only reason ABC got that many is most tuned in expecting Grey’s Anatomy.
Good analysis. This is not your garden variety election. There are so many variables such as race, gender, age, etc. that can affect turnout, which is the real determinant of who will win. Early voting could account for more than a third of the vote and up to 50% in key states like FL. The black turnout will set records. And no one knows how the Wilder/Bradley effect will affect the outcome. And there may be an October surprise beyond the economic meltdown and rising unemployment that will influence the outcome.
Prediction: The Palinites will turnout, big time; the youth vote won’t.
She is looking to the future not the past as she pointedly admonished Biden about his fingerpointing and looking backwards.
The bigger point is that less than 25% watched it on fox or FNC.
I’m up in NW Indiana and haven’t seen one McCain sign or bumpersticker....plenty of Hussein’s crap tho.
Secondly, the author didn't mention mobile phones, but that bolsters his assertion about sampling errors.
Author is also correct that there must a reason so many crave to see Palin, and I think that reason bodes well for us.
The youth are already voting big time in place like VA and Ohio. Obama has targeted the college campuses [along with the homelss] to get out the vote. I see a bigger turnout among the young this election cycle.
Bruce Springsteen is coming back to campaign in Ohio, four years after his last campaign swing. Last time, he drew big crowds at Ohio State University and in Cleveland, but his candidate, John Kerry, lost. This time, “The Boss” is stumping for Barack Obama at OSU and hopes to get voters to the polls soon, thanks to Ohio’s new early-voting rules.
“His presence at the rally will provide our campaign with the opportunity to mobilize tens of thousands of our supporters in one place to go out and vote early, as well as to register new voters and sign up new volunteers who will help our campaign for change send Barack Obama to the White House,” said Obama’s Ohio campaign manager, Aaron Pickrell, in a statement.
Playing an acoustic set, Springsteen will appear in the Main Oval at OSU on Sunday. Tickets for the 4:30 p.m. performance are free and can be picked up starting tomorrow at Obama campaign offices in central Ohio. The list of those offices will be available later today on the campaign’s Ohio website, according to a campaign spokesman..
I don’t.
I’ve seen reports that the buses are nearly empty.
Interesting that you say that because just yesterday I drove through a stretch of road that I take all the time to my parents in Ohio that includes parts of West Virginia, Pennsylvania and of course Ohio. And it was easily 5 to 1 signs for McCain-Palin, and also more signs for McCain-Palin than I really remember seeing for Bush in either of the last two elections along this stretch. And I am pretty involved in politics and pay attention to this stuff pretty closely in terms of signs etc. each election.
And this is Northern WV, Western PA, Southeastern OH batteground territory. I think that there are some "bitter clingers" ready to make their voice heard on election day, hopefully enough to make the difference.
Just a while back, there was a poll that one third of democrats are racist against blacks. That does not square with recent polls. On the other hand, McCain hadn’t even been focusing on the race for a time. I thought it would give him a boost. Apparently not. That could be because McCain changes when he sets foot near the Patomac.
Good news. Please provide some of those reports.
Well, here are the facts:
Same here, the 06 polls were pretty darn accurate.
That said, we just have to wait and see if Gov Palin’s performance causes a bump for McCain Palin, they should start moving soon if her performance has an effect.
That and McCain is Allegedly going to start going negative..we shall see..
Good to hear, just spoke to my daughter in Kansas City,Mo. She said that she went to the GOP headquarters and they said they couldn’t give her a McCain sign, even after she offered to pay for it! She is so disgusted, this is why we have so many problems. They told her to go to another location as they were low on signs!
I cannot emphasize a new RNC-funded website enough. The RNC is now funding a web site that says it like it is— even Unrepentant Terrorist Ayers. You can learn about it here:
aaa Friend Update Added to ‘BarackBook’ Says RNC [Facebook -ZING!]
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2097136/posts
Here’s the Ayers Page:
http://www.barackbook.com/Profiles/WilliamAyers.htm
Drudge has a breakdown of who watched where. Make of it what you will.
SARAH SHOW: 69,989,000 WATCH
TOTALS
ABC 13,130,000
NBC 12,820,000
CBS 11,100,000
FOXNEWS 11,098,000
CNN 10,685,000
FOX 4,500,000
MSNBC 4,412,000
And no one watched on CSPAN?
Within the last two weeks, it was reported that 28% of Hillary supporters would NOT be voting for Obama.
The current polls do not seem to reflect that shift for McCain.
28% of Hillary supporters would equate to about a 5-6% shift in the national polls in favor of McCain.
Either:
1. Hillary supporters are purposly misleading the pollsters by falsely indicating that they will vote for Obama
or..
2. They have switched back to voting the dem ticket
or..
3. They are in fact baked into the McCain polling figures, which means that McCain is doing much worse than expected, even with their support.
Any ideas, comments, theories with respect to the PUMA effect??
Liberal logic is an oxymoron
Thankfully, the North Koreans get to live in a communist utopia while South Korea suffers along with mere capitalism.
Todays dems look at a gutter and say “Hey that's not deep enough for me to hide in!”.
“They” want to make it appear as if Obama is winning by skewing the polls because they know there are some (ignorant) people who will simply vote for the supposed “winner” in the polls.
I don’t believe in polls either. You can manipulate too many factors (the sample, the questions, etc) so that the results favor your desired outcome. It’s just like the “statistics” about global warming today or homeless people in past elections.
“They” seem to ignore the numbers when it comes to actual votes on an issue -— a proposition, for example -— whether it be immigration, abortion, gay marriage, or taxes. Those are discounted as if they don’t matter.
Every single one of us is biased or we’d all be the same person. =^)
I see that as a net positive. It means that Sarah was not just "preaching to the choir"
I too got burned by not believing the polls in 2006. I really did not believe I'd wake up the day after the election and hear "Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi" or "Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid"... I was stunned that Senator George Allen and Senator Rick Santorum [true conservatives] were defeated.
Today in 2008, I now don't know what to believe about polls, so I have to try and gauge the situation by observing other factors. Things such as ACORN and various state voter registration numbers and who those new numbers 'trend' towards [i.e. New Mexico story]. All this college campus and 'Rock the Vote' registration and all the the wild zeal by college students for rock star messiah Obama. Record Af-Am registration. Vote fraud stories from various cities in every state that are fraud for Obama (not McCain). This 30-days before election 'financial crisis' like some sort of cat 5 hurricane that needed attention 5 minutes ago or we would disapear in a mushroom cloud. Things like how much can our 'alternative' media expose Obama and does that exposure of lies and real intentions change minds about their 'messiah'?
There are many more factors that I could list, but I tend to observe those things more than polls now. When the time comes to cast the ballot, will the majority trust and take a chance on this unknown sock-puppet that is a dummy on the lap of other unknown-out-of-view 'powers' pulling his strings and doing his talking?
Don't get me wrong, polls still concern me and even worry me somewhat. Biden did get it right about how this election is probably the most important in my lifetime. If this were an ellection between Kerry & McCain or Bill Clinton & McCain I wouldn't be literally scared. Sure, those two bozos could do harm, but not the harm Obama can. The reason is that Obama himself is NOT the one to be afraid of as much as those handling him...Obama is just their mouth-piece. Like the demon-possessed man of Gadara when Jesus asked his name: 'I am called Legion for we are many'
We wait and see. Ras has McCain up 1 point from yesterday.
Every election has predicted a massive “youth vote” turnout and every election it just never materializes. People are always the same.
I did and I recorded the debate from C-span and I know that I wasn’t the only one! The ratings doesn’t even include oversea ratings neither! :-)
yeah, it’s simply not believable. Again, I don’t want to get to the point I’m not believing the polls, but SurveyUSA has McCain up one in MN . . . and you know if he’s up one in MN, there’s no way he’s not up 20 in MS.
“Explain this: Rasmussen has McCain only up 8 in Mississippi, but only has Obama up 4 in MAINE. Now if McCain is only up 8 in Mississippi, how in the hell can he be only 4 behind in Maine?”
Question 1:
What is the percentage of blacks in Mississippi, vis-a-vis the general population?
Question 2:
What is the percentage of blacks in Maine, vis-a-vis the general population?
Therein lies your answer.
- John
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