Battleground daily tracking (M-46 O-49); McCain up two from yesterday

Battleground ^ | 10/3/08 | Battleground

[Ravi]

Election

[Ravi]

It's a start.

[Corin Stormhands]

That’s still pre-debate, right?

[MrB]

If McCain let Palin campaign and stood around as the war hero,

this trend would soon become a landslide.

Not that I have any hope of him doing that.

[housedeep]

its a great start!!!!

not even factoring in the Palin bounce #2!!!

Obama peaked too early, and cant close the deal.

[epluribus_2]

MOE?

[rlbedfor]

if the election where today, we would loose by the smallest fraction in CO or OH. we are close. there is time to close the deal and squeek by. Gonna be close.

[Maelstorm]

I’m sure he is going to see a bump from the Palin debate. Now let us hope he doesn’t find a way to screw it up after totally botching an easy pass with this bailout.

[Thickman]

Also, this is after Battleground changed is magic formula to favor Barry. Right?

[E=MC2]

Obama peaked too early, and cant close the deal.

That is what Hillary thought.

[Cedric]

All yesterday, I said the frantic “It's over” push indicated that the Dems had some devastating internal polling.

Sadly, many good FReeper joined the trolls in the mass FReak-out.

[LS]

FWIW, I disagree. Here in OH, Obama cannot win. The redneck Dems do not like him. There was a story a week ago about how NOW the southeastern Dem HQ is still spending its time trying to convince people O isn't a Muslim.

We need to worry about CO and VA. Those two=victory.

[Proudcongal]

I could swear I went on RCP this morning and Battleground had Obama up 7. They must have changed it. Maybe RCP meant it for Rasmussen.

[Cedric]

Cut it out.

[CycloneGOP]

Zero peaked way too early. Sarah power has been restored. The LSM can’t filter last night’s performance. We had 90 minutes to see the real Sarah with no creative editing.

McCain needs to hit the RATS hard on this mortgage mess. I think he starts following the House vote.

Let Sarah be Sarah. No more holding her back. She’s a star and needs to be heard!!

[CatOwner]

Obama peaked too early, and cant close the deal.

That is what Hillary thought.

One big difference: The vote hasn't taken place yet.

[rlbedfor]

you are there, so you have the ground. good deal. I can not imagine VA going to Obama, but again I am down here in GA a wash in red.

[ScottinVA]

Yes, pre-debate.

[Ravi]

I think that was Ras. This is all predebate with their weighting to increase O’s totals.

[LS]

FWIW, I was wrong in 06. I thought DeWine would eek out a tiny victory, and that Blackwell would make it close. DeWine lost by 4-5, and Blackwell by 25. However, there is a lesson in Blackwell’s loss. On the eve of the election, most polls were in the -8 to -12 point range, and Ken lost by 25%. I’m convinced there was some “Wilder Effect” at work there.

[Don'tMessWithTexas]

I agree LS. Obama cannot win OH. The race will be decided in CO and VA.

I do not know much about CO, but I would think that that area west of the Rockies and south of Denver will determine the result.

Frankly, I do not understand why VA is so tight. I think the historic trend will hold for at least one more cycle.

[ScottinVA]

Interesting thing to note: normally, the VP debate doesn’t affect the race, but it sure seem to me it will definitely have an effect this time around. There’s a lot of inordinate attention on them (for obvious reasons, of course), so I wouldn’t be surprised to see at least a 2-3 point bounce for McCain-Palin in a few days. It’ll put some of these polls into the MOE, at least. There’s hope.

[Don'tMessWithTexas]

Agreed on Palin. She is a star and needs to be unleashed. I would have her campaign in CO, NV, OH and MN almost exclusively until the election.

[rlbedfor]

“wider effect”. Got it.

[ncalburt]

THIS TRACKING POLL WAS RIGGED ON MONDAY.
The lefty pollster who co-develops this cooked poll talked the conservative into CHANGING THE POLL Formula to
INSTANTLY GIVE OBAMA FOUR POINTS ON MONDAY !
This poll is a FRAUD NOW . The POLL is Useless and there in nothing to TRACK since the formula WAS Intentionally change
by the Lefty at the Poll firm.

This a great example of WHY These POLLS ( in particular tracking polls) are PURE Garbage and only proves the POINT . These POLLS are cooked up to SWAY Voters and NOT Read THEM.
Read all about the scam Below
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/battleground_drops_party_weigh.php

[Ravi]

I don’t ever remember Dewine being down by 5 in the polling. It always seemed like it was 8 to 10 points so the fact that he lost by 5 compared to pre-election polling bodes well for this year. Blackwell on the other hand...

[Proudcongal]

Yeah, when I saw +7 it put a damper in my morning, but since it’s Rasmussen that’s better since O at least didn’t gain anything. I’m looking for these polls to start turning for McCain/Palin after Sarah’s great performance last night!

[Wilder Effect]

Yes, it is a start. Hopefully Palin can hit the stump and the bailout is sorted.

[Cedric]

The spate of bogus polls: A Barry Hail Mary

{with all due attribution to Charles Krouthammer}

[RocketMan1]

Obam-uh-uh-uh peaked too soon is absolutely correct.

While the Lefties are foaming at the mouth and crawling all over themselves to (falsely) declare Biden last night’s winner, the fact is that with Sarah’s plain victory over “Joe,” spouting at least a dozen inaccuracies (or outright lies) was obvious to all of those who voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004. Middle America, those despised “red Staters,” will at least be honest and see Sarah the clear winner.

Bottom line .. going into Pres debate two .. McCain will be UP over Obam-uh-uh-uh by at least two points. He will never look back.

BTW — when will the 527’s start hammering away at the messiah’s Marxist/Terrorist/Miscreant pals? Including THIS one: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/oct/03/fbi-raids-obama-friends-home/print/

[Proudcongal]

Interesting thing to note: normally, the VP debate doesn’t affect the race, but it sure seem to me it will definitely have an effect this time around. There’s a lot of inordinate attention on them (for obvious reasons, of course), so I wouldn’t be surprised to see at least a 2-3 point bounce for McCain-Palin in a few days. It’ll put some of these polls into the MOE, at least. There’s hope.

It's obvious from the MSM's desperate attempts to nurse the wound dealt the O campaign last night.

[nclaurel]

I do so wish people on FR would quit with the sky is falling every time a poll comes out. It isn’t over and we fight to the end. The trolls as you call them try so hard to demoralize and did the same in 2004.

[TonyInOhio]

That is what Hillary thought.

She was almost right, too. Had the last primaries been a couple of weeks later, she'd be the nominee.

[Cedric]

They were “thicker than flies on a bib roast” yesterday!

[chimera]

Palin did her job. Now McCain has to step back up to the plate. He's got to bring it to ODummy. A mediocre performance isn't going to do it.

[johniegrad]

I would have her campaign in CO, NV, OH and MN almost exclusively until the election.

She would play EXTREMELY well in Minnesota especially the northern part and could steal enough of the democrat vote up here to win the state. She could also simultaneously hit northwestern Wisconsin. Recent polling suggests it may not take much to win either or both states. She could steal traditional democrats up here.

[johniegrad]

Had the last primaries been a couple of weeks later, she'd be the nominee.

Actually, if there had been a couple less caucuses and a couple more primaries she would have won also.

[nclaurel]

“One big difference: The vote hasn’t taken place yet.”

Thanks for the positive post—you are so correct!

[RocketMan1]

Obama peaked too early, and cant close the deal.

Let's also remember that Obam-uh-uh-uh DIDN'T WIN ANYTHING!! He is the "Chosen One" by the idiotic DimoRAT system of "super-duper-delegates" because he was "for CHANGE .. AND HOPE" and besides, Hillary was just a boring old, white bag! If the RAT Party wasn't so idiotic and corrupt, it would be McCain v Hillary.

[Cedric]

A mediocre performance isn't going to do it.

Sounds like you're all ready to be disappointed.

[LS]

Ok, I looked at the RCP numbers. From Aug. through early Sept. Dewine was down 4-5; then he started to tail, falling as far as 12, finishing with a 10-point loss.

[tcrlaf]

“The lefty pollster who co-develops this cooked poll talked the conservative into CHANGING THE POLL Formula”

And we KNOW where that came from!!
For two weeks after Obama started crashing after the convention, there was diary after diary on Daily Kos about how ALL the polls were under reporting Democrats, in spite of some polls having Pro-Dem bias’s of OVER TEN PERCENT!

The KOS Moonbats control the meme now (And MANY MSM Media-types are KOS’rs!)

[KriegerGeist]

"We need to worry about CO and VA. Those two=victory."

RICHMOND - State elections officials say 306,215 Virginians have registered to vote since the beginning of the year.

Board of Elections Secretary Nancy Rodrigues says that’s a 7 percent increase in total voters.

Nearly 4.9 million Virginians are now registered to vote as of Thursday.

The pattern of new registrations appears to favor Democrat Barack Obama, and the largest percentage increase was in heavily Democratic Richmond.
**********************************

"Rock the Vote" bus [I think associated with ACORN] has visited the college capuses [VA-Tech, UVA, Radford, etc.] and registered students (primarily for Obama) and these students in the local news stories seem fired up to get out the vote for Obama.

It's going to take a huge Conservative turnout to counter this. I'm not saying there won't be, but Richmond, Tidewater and NoVA are three huge liberal chunks of the state and throw in the college campuses and you've got a significant challenge.

[Beeman]

Also that was among leftwing radicals, not the general public.

[chimera]

Two things. First, I'm worried how well he's going to do. The pressure to do well is heavier when you're behind. Second, FReepers were (and still are) predicting that McCain will “wipe the floor” with Bammi. That in itself is cause for concern, especially since it didn't happen in Round 1.

[Beeman]

I agree, with the addition of VA.

[LS]

Ok, but you've got to remember, registering people means nothing in and of itself. In 2004, Jay Cost did an amazing analysis of OH and FL's supposedly "important" new Dem voter registrations. What he found was that in fact they were only replacing Dem voters who had left the state. Now, that's probably not the case in VA.

But "registering" can be done almost anywhere---a mall or whatever. These are the same people who wouldn't leave their houses with Hurricane Katrine bearing down on them . . . and they will turn out to vote? I'm not convinced.

That's why in the past (could change, of course) "Likely" voter polls are so much more accurate than "registered" voter polls.

[Buckeye_Hoosier]

I agree. I’m also in Ohio and I just don’t see that BO has this big lead that the pollsters are telling us. Even my cranky, diehard Dem neighbor is voting McCain because he’s convinced BO is indeed a muslim. This is the neighbor that had several Kerry-Edwards signs and bumper stickers 4 years ago.

[Proudcongal]

I bet Joe had no idea what was in store for him when she asked him if she could call him Joe. I still wish she had called him a good ol’ boy to his face.

[ari-freedom]

no, we just didn’t like what we saw from mccain

[ncalburt]

I read that the Obama camp calls these pollsters up and hound /harass them into submission !

First, Rasmussen and Gallup change there formulas and
Battleground Ground Tracking POLL Is PURE Propaganda CRAP NOW TOO.
In one Day these scoundrels QUIETLY change the formula and GIVE OBAMA FOUR Points and they hoped no one would question WHY ???

They cooked a tracking poll that can't be tracked since there is a massive formula change to help Barry ! !

So take way that 4 points and McCain is ahead by 1 point !!!!

So like I say there POLLS are PURE Propaganda meant to sway Voter's opinion !