Posted on 09/26/2008 8:29:28 PM PDT by Kevmo
Here’s my analysis of the debate results from Intrade, comparing pre- and post-debate numbers. McCain won handily with a 6.7 poing swing in his favor on the individual contracts at high volume. But there’s one glitch in the Electoral Votes on the front page of Intrade. McCain lost some ground there. Perhaps it is one of those contracts that lags the more emotional President.Individual contracts.
New: McCain 227 — Obama 311 Old: McCain 232 — Obama 306 Change: +5 for Obama Electoral Votes on front page of Intrade. McCain losing ground?
2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual) Contract 2008.PRES.OBAMA Barack Obama to win 2008 US Presidential Election M Trade Old/New Last Vol Change New: 53.1 670963 Old: 57.0 649753 -3.9 (21210 volume)
2008.PRES.McCAIN John McCain to win 2008 US Presidential Election M Trade Old/New Last Vol Change New: 45.0 678758 Old: 42.2 666881 +2.8 (11877 volume)
2008 Presidential Election Winner (Political Party) Contract PRESIDENT.DEM2008 Democratic Party Candidate to Win 2008 Presidential Election M Trade Old/New Last Vol Chge New: 59.0 118124 Old: 59.0 118124 No change in volume nor price
PRESIDENT.REP2008 Republican Party Candidate to Win 2008 Presidential Election M Trade Old/New Last Vol Change New: 44.0 116359 Old: 41.0 115602 + 3.0 on 757 Volume
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.intrade.com/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here’s the post debate snapshot.
McCain 227 — Obama 311
2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual) Contract 2008.PRES.OBAMA Barack Obama to win 2008 US Presidential Election M Trade Bid Ask Last Vol Chge 53.0 53.1 53.1 670963 -2.6
2008 Presidential Election Winner (Political Party) Contract PRESIDENT.DEM2008 Democratic Party Candidate to Win 2008 Presidential Election M Trade Bid Ask Last Vol Chge 57.8 58.7 59.0 118124 -0.8
PRESIDENT.REP2008 Republican Party Candidate to Win 2008 Presidential Election M Trade Bid Ask Last Vol Chge 42.0 43.9 44.0 116359 +2.0
2008.PRES.McCAIN John McCain to win 2008 US Presidential Election M Trade Bid Ask Last Vol Chge 45.0 46.0 45.0 678758 +1.2
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Old snapshot
McCain 232 — Obama 306 Electoral Votes on front page of Intrade.
http://www.intrade.com/
2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual) Contract 2008.PRES.OBAMA Barack Obama to win 2008 US Presidential Election M Trade
Bid Ask Last Vol Chge 56.9 57.0 57.0 649753 +1.3
2008.PRES.McCAIN John McCain to win 2008 US Presidential Election M Trade
Bid Ask Last Vol Chge 42.1 42.2 42.2 666881 -1.6
The Political Party contract tends to lag the Pres.Individual contract lately.
2008 Presidential Election Winner (Political Party) Contract PRESIDENT.DEM2008 Democratic Party Candidate to Win 2008 Presidential Election M Trade Bid Ask Last Vol Chge 57.8 59.0 59.0 118124 -0.8
PRESIDENT.REP2008 Republican Party Candidate to Win 2008 Presidential Election M Trade Bid Ask Last Vol Chge 40.5 41.9 41.0 115602 -1.0
3,992 posted on Friday, September 26, 2008 7:57:08 PM by Kevmo (Obama Birth Certificate is a Forgery.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2091352/posts?page=4154#4154
and that thread has over 4,000 responses. So I'm pulling it out in order to help Freepers bring out the message to others -- we have non-partisan evidence that McCain won the debate and won it big.
Geez. Can anyone translate that gibberish into something understandable?
I guess McCain didn’t accomplish what he was suppose to do in order to be ahead. GOD HELP US!
Could you check again. The debate I watched had McCain 100 Obama 0
Sorry about the formatting.
Yeah, I saw a debate in which McCain lost round one and won EVERY OTHER ROUND. WTF.
“I guess McCain didn’t accomplish what he was suppose to do in order to be ahead. GOD HELP US!”
Oh give it a rest.
Some of you are the most pathetic excuse for conservatives in history!
Electoral Votes
New: McCain 227 — Obama 311
Old: McCain 232 — Obama 306 Change: +5 for Obama
Electoral Votes on front page of Intrade. McCain losing ground?
2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual)
Contract 2008.PRES.OBAMA
Barack Obama to win 2008 US Presidential Election M Trade
Old/New Last Vol Change
New: 53.1 670963
Old: 57.0 649753 -3.9 (21210 volume)
2008.PRES.McCAIN
John McCain to win 2008 US Presidential Election
M Trade
Old/New Last Vol Change
New: 45.0 678758
Old: 42.2 666881 +2.8 (11877 volume)
2008 Presidential Election Winner (Political Party)
Contract PRESIDENT.DEM2008
Democratic Party Candidate to Win 2008 Presidential Election M Trade
Old/New Last Vol Chge
New: 59.0 118124
Old: 59.0 118124 No change in volume nor price
PRESIDENT.REP2008
Republican Party Candidate to Win 2008 Presidential Election
M Trade
Old/New Last Vol Change
New: 44.0 116359
Old: 41.0 115602 + 3.0 on 757 Volume
Absolutely worthless IMO.
Palin who?? Intrade no clue.
That site is thinly traded and can be manipulated by big dollar read: soros and chronies
How about USC last night?
Keep in mind, “we” see what we want to, other voters, the mushy “undecideds” could see something else.
As for Intrade, indeed, McCain cleaned some clocks, however is that the start of a good week after two poor ones, or is this the statistical aberration?
The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum
McCain could’ve done a lot better I’ll say that myself. I wouldn’t have let Obama get away with some of the things he said. I wouldn’t have just called him one of the most liberal Senators but I’d have have injected Durbin his fellow Senator and talked about how discraceful the Democrats have behaved in running down our military.
John McCain didn’t blow it but he didn’t knock Obama out. He needs to do better in the next one and he needs to hit Obama with everything he’s got. He needs to stop being bipartisan on the economy. John McCain needs to finger the Democrats and he had an opportunity to mention his support for the 2005 bill that would’ve reformed Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. He didn’t. This debate was a mixed bag. I did think McCain finished strong. Palin has to totally defeat Joe Biden. Let’s pray for her and get out there tomorrow and work. This race is all about work. John McCain needs to quit trying to walk a line that isn’t there. He was clearly holding back in the first half and he emphasized things that didn’t help him. I do think John McCain benefited from the fact that he had the last word. I’d write a letter emphasizing what you think were John McCain’s strengths to your local papers.
As for Intrade, indeed, McCain cleaned some clocks, however is that the start of a good week after two poor ones, or is this the statistical aberration?
***The only thing that happened in the last 3-4 hours that would affect the price at Intrade is the debates. So it’s good evidence from a nonpartisan source that McCain cleaned Obama’s clock. Keep in mind that there’s a pro-Obama bias at Intrade.
Trying to Quantify Liberal Bias at Intrade
09/09/2008 1:40:08 PM PDT · by Kevmo · 13 replies · 4+ views
Free Republic ^ | September 9, 2008 | Kevmo
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-backroom/2078429/posts
Like I said...........
Palin who?
Romney up/down/up/down, Palenty up/down/up/down, etc.....
Thin market, succeptable to easy manipulation.
I trade futures and stocks. I don’t go near thin markets.
You obviously didn’t read the link I posted to you.
These trading markets are another level of indicator, and as it turns out in the long run, more accurate than polls.
I do not care if you trade futures and stocks. And neither do any of the lurkers following this thread. This is the only real futures game in town for politics. So use your expertise wisely and hint to your friends tomorrow that they could have made some lunch money betting on McCain to win the debate last night. If you’re not willing to do that, then keep your mouth shut when McCain has positive data.
We should be thankful that Mac didn’t appear tired from his work on the bailout. If Obama clearly won this debate, then the whole contest would be a foregone conclusion. I would have been happy with a tie. Tonight’s debate enabled Mac to live another day. With a decent bailout plan to be approved Sunday, perhaps people won’t feel so scared about their finances. So would enable Mac to gain some traction.
This is worthless. I just peaked over there and there’s a full 2 point spread between the bid and the ask. Actually, less than worthless. These gamblers just follow the conventional wisdom, they don’t lead or foreshadow it.
Signed up August 22, 2008 just to say that? Get lost, troll.
Yes, nice eloquent response. You’ve proven that these gambling markets, which predicted Kerry would win, are 100% right! I’m humbled. LOL!
Goddamn. I we ready to lower our ass to Obama? Is this the moment when freepers ask what the hell happened, instead of OPENIONG their eyes? McCain clocked Obama.
And you, troll, don’t even read the pertinent posts showing that these markets are more accurate than polls. Didn’t the polls get it wrong as well? HMMMM???? The point is that Intrade gets it wrong less than the polls do. But trolls like you won’t see that.
So go troll somewhere else.
Yeah, I think that Intrade site is a big farce.
People basically run there and bet after they hear the fact on the internet.
Your time scale says 4:42 AM. Are you future boy?
McCain did not deliver a knockout punch. Obama held his own. But how many points does he lose for the “Bradley Effect” and his “Muslim faith”? I suspect the first exit polls on Nov 4th may show a large 8-10 pt lead for Obama, and then see him lose by 4%. Of course if/when that happens, cities will burn.
If the Huffington Post uses and quotes Intrade- I would not give anyone ten cents for the source.
Oh yeah. I forgot. This is done in an Irish pub in Ireland.
They didn’t do such a good job with Palin.
I have a bracelet too John!
Ahhhh errh aahh what’s his name:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4r_jTgGeVU4
Of course if/when that happens, cities will burn.
***Preparing for the “Big What if”: Buying a gun
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2082856/posts
Neither did any of the polls. If you want to knock down trading markets for the data generation, come up with examples where the markets got it wrong and the polls got it right. You’ll find fewer of those than you will find of the markets getting it right and the polls getting it wrong.
When the data favors the republican candidate, then try your best to keep mum and start learning the back story. That way when the data is against the pubbie, you’ll be better prepared in the future.
If I was, I'd open up an account at Intrade, and really make a killing.
Intrade, which originates in Ireland, defaults to Greenwich Mean Time (GMT).
Yeah, I remembered after I posted. And re-posted.
I was watching Intrade the night before Palin was picked. She wasn’t even registering.
Still stuck on that, I see. Try to grow a little and change that before it becomes “stuck on stupid”... Open mind, insert data, learn.
Futures markets can be accurate at predicting events based on many different variables, but don't do arbirtrary and capricious. Intrade, for all its power, could neither read McCain's mind, nor predict what I will have for breakfast tomorrow.
. (Answer: Muesli).
They are smoken crack if they think they are taking Ohio...
Intrade (and formerly, tradesports, which also made lines on political bets) is absolutely fabulous for betting insurance. That is, one can easily create arbitrages against punting propositions, using Intrade as the other side.
This past a.m. for example, assuming you could have found someone here in the US who wanted to bet on Osamabama at even money (TRIVIAL thing, I met half a dozen such folks just today), you could have easily hedged off said bet on Intrade and locked up a 7-8 pt middle.
That ain't hay, Jack. That's good money! Fortunately for those of us who understand proposition betting, chaps like you (who don't) do NOTHING but help us make tidy profits with your silly and uninformed commentary.
Do, please, keep it up!
See post 37. Intrade, properly used, frequently helps generating a nice little profit, if one understands the natures and practices of bookmaking and proposition betting.
And soon as this sinks in: I have a bracelet too John!
Ahhhh errh aahh what's his name:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4r_jTgGeVU4
Maybe we will see a different result. Like G HW Bush looking at his watch. It took a few days to sink in.
Nice response.
Do you see the same opportunity I do, in the state by state contracts? Intrade shows McCain at 227 and Obama at 311 for Electoral Votes. The cool thing about these state contracts is they are more liquid than they’ve ever been, because Intrade just put up an instantaneous electoral map — it’s the first thing you see when you log in. I think that has generated a swing in the liberal direction that we could make money from.
Between the electoral vote contracts, the president.individual contracts and the party contracts, there are several ways to take advantage of the lag if one is so inclined...
Now, that said, middling the EV count sounds a good prospect! How liquid are the 'Total EVs McQueeg' and 'Total EVs Osamabama' contracts, d'ya know?
I think those contracts are rolled up from state to stat from each individual state contract. I think Intrade has some states wrong, like Pennsylvania. I think there’s some 30 points on the table if you bet down on the difference between poll results and Intrade... and the facts on the ground in PA seem to warrant even better than the polls.
PENNSYLVANIA.DEM
Democratic Party Nominee to win Pennsylvania’s Electoral College Votes in 2008 Election M Trade 73.0 73.9 73.0 2596 0
PENNSYLVANIA.REP
Republican Party Nominee to win Pennsylvania’s Electoral College Votes in 2008 Election M Trade 27.2 34.0 34.5 4447 +7.4
There are some EV totals which go in increments of 10. They are not very liquid at all.
REP.ELEC.COLLEGE.>250
Republican Nominee to win 250 or more Electoral College Votes M Trade 55.0 64.9 55.0 219 0
REP.ELEC.COLLEGE.>260
Republican Nominee to win 260 or more Electoral College Votes M Trade 50.0 60.0 55.0 184 0
REP.ELEC.COLLEGE.>270
Republican Nominee to win 270 or more Electoral College Votes M Trade 40.0 46.0 46.0 247 0
To this day I cannot believe the amount of coverage and reverence FReepers give to polls when they’re WRONG every time.
***Keep in mind that it was POLL results that determined who the GOP debaters would be at New Hampshire, which was AFTER the Wyoming caucus and Duncan Hunter had 1 or 2 delegates. So the MSM decided that Romney, TootiefruityRudy, and Ron Paul all had more legitimate claim to being there than someone for whom actual voters had already voted for. Freepers seemed to go along with it. Why? Because there were so many who supported Romney, TootieFruityRudy, Ron Paul, Fred Thompson, whoever. Everyone but the conservative in the race. Note that the big drawback from Hunter wasn’t his conservatism (yeah, right) it was his name recognition. But it was the unknown conservative governor from Alaska that is handing this election to McCain on a silver platter.
Duncan Hunter’s drawback was that he ran an inept campaign. Fred Thompson’s drawback was that he didn’t want to campaign in the first place.
The polls are still idiotic.
Duncan Hunter’s drawback was that he ran an inept campaign.
***Hunter’s drawback was that the MSM had the authority to determine who would be in the debates — the same MSM that has gone ape$#|+ over Sarah Palin because of her views, which are very close to Hunter’s.
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