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AMERICA’S DECLINING NUCLEAR SUPERIORITY
American Foreign Policy Council ^ | 9/22/2008 | Ilan Berman, ed.

Posted on 09/23/2008 1:47:34 AM PDT by bruinbirdman

The steady atrophy of America’s nuclear capabilities could lead to a dramatic reversal in the balance of power between the United States and Russia over the next two decades, a new article in the September/October issue of The National Interest has warned. “The United States faces major problems in the maintenance of its nuclear forces and infrastructure,” write the authors, Professor Bradley Thayer of Missouri State University and Thomas Skypek, a defense analyst with the consulting firm Booz Allen Hamilton. “It is the only nuclear country that cannot manufacture a new nuclear weapon because of a self-imposed moratorium, which has halted the modernization of warheads and delivery systems alike.”

Russia, meanwhile, is dramatically expanding the scope and sophistication of its strategic capabilities. According to Thayer and Skypek, “the Russian strategic hiatus of the 1990s ended when Vladimir Putin succeeded Boris Yeltsin.” Russia is now engaged in a major, multi-spectrum modernization of each leg of its strategic triad, is building new tactical and strategic nuclear weapons, and has adopted a new, forward posture on the use of such weapons.

“In the post-cold-war world,” Thayer and Skypek conclude, “the United States will continue to depend on its strategic nuclear forces to accomplish its grand-strategic goals. That will become increasingly difficult if the United States does not act now to redress the key vulnerabilities in its arsenal.” Already, “the relative strategic balance between the United States and its near-peer competitors has changed, and not in Washington’s favor.”

ARMING THE UAE
As part of its efforts to bolster regional defenses in the face of Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the Bush administration has announced a multi-billion dollar plan to sell missile defenses to at least one Persian Gulf state. Reuters reports that the U.S. government plans to sell the United Arab Emirates the first units of the Theater High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system. The anti-missile technology, developed over the past decade by Lockheed Martin and valued at up to $7 billion, is intended to provide both endo- and exo-atmospheric defense against short- and medium-range missiles.

POLAND IN THE CROSSHAIRS
In the wake of Poland’s mid-August signing of a missile defense basing agreement with the United States, Russia has steadily increased diplomatic pressure on its former satellite. The latest salvo came during Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s visit to Warsaw in early September. “We cannot fail to see the risks emerging as a result of U.S. strategic forces coming closer to our borders," Lavrov told reporters following consultations with his Polish counterpart, Radoslaw Sikorski. “We are certain this system in Europe can have no other target for a long time to come but Russia's strategic forces."

In response, Russian officials are warning of dire consequences if Poland goes through with the planned deployment. "Our targeting of these countries [Poland and the Czech Republic, site of a corresponding early warning radar array] will happen as soon as these missiles are brought," Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has warned in comments.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Foreign Affairs; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: geopolitics; missiledefense; poland; uae

1 posted on 09/23/2008 1:47:34 AM PDT by bruinbirdman
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To: bruinbirdman

Correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t Russia just say “How DARE Poland defend itself against our interests.”?

As for the nuclear gap, why is the USA STILL paying to help clean up Russian nuclear messes?

They want to play rough, let’s do so.


2 posted on 09/23/2008 2:03:23 AM PDT by Don W (To write with a broken pencil is pointless.)
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To: bruinbirdman

The US is rapidly degenerating into a third world nation at home what with all the federally mandated quotas for everything. No third world nation can climb out of a paperbag let alone defend themselves against a determined agressor.


3 posted on 09/23/2008 2:04:45 AM PDT by x_plus_one (Muhammed and Allah = memes destined for the ashheap of history.....)
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To: Don W

Come to think of it, the USSR always DID have a HUGE numerical superiority in number of warheads. it was the accuracy, invulnerable placement and dependability of US warheads that kept the balance of terror from ever becoming a “hot” war.


4 posted on 09/23/2008 2:05:47 AM PDT by Don W (To write with a broken pencil is pointless.)
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To: bruinbirdman

The US buys uranium from dismantled nuclear weapons from Russia in order to create new fuel rods for our nuclear power plants.

Not sure what a foward posture means since Russia was always so far behind the US technologically.

Also we have a working anti-ballistic-missile system. They do not.


5 posted on 09/23/2008 3:04:56 AM PDT by DiogenesLaertius (Lets Act like True Conservatives Here)
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To: bruinbirdman

Don’t worry. Obama is going to disarm the entire world so we’ll all be happy as pigs in mud.


6 posted on 09/23/2008 3:37:17 AM PDT by Carley (she's all out of caribou.............)
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To: bruinbirdman

And Obambi is on record saying he will unilaterally disarm America of its nukes. Obambi will in all likelihood be our next president. Folks, we are soooooo screwed.


7 posted on 09/23/2008 3:43:50 AM PDT by ought-six ( Multiculturalism is national suicide, and political correctness is the cyanide capsule.)
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To: DiogenesLaertius

“Not sure what a foward posture means since Russia was always so far behind the US technologically.”

Russia’s ICBM force is quite sufficient to take out our cities. Making a preemptive strike against our silos is a non-starter though. The submarine leg of the triad is a sure counterstrike.

“Also we have a working anti-ballistic-missile system. They do not.”

We do not have an ABM system that’s meaningful against thousands (or even hundreds) of incoming warheads.

Our nuclear forces have been pared down to a bare minimum already. Russia and China both have nuclear weapons modernization programs. We desperately need to start ours, to maintain an effective deterrent going forward.

What we DON’T need are NObama’s unrealistic and dangerous policies.


8 posted on 09/23/2008 5:19:40 AM PDT by PreciousLiberty
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To: bruinbirdman
Fire up them plutonium pits and tritrium plants NOW!!!

(Ok, modern H-bombs don't actually use tritrium, they use deuterated lithium that is bombarded by hard x-rays by the primer to produce tritrium - much safer and stabler.)

9 posted on 09/23/2008 6:22:35 AM PDT by JDoutrider (Pray for our side!)
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