Posted on 09/22/2008 6:50:39 AM PDT by tatown
Battleground Poll Tracking McCain (48%) Obama (47%) released 9/22/08.
If you click "Battleground" you get a PDF file of the poll internals.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Rasmussen has it reversed today.
Rasmussen has had Obama up by a point for a couple of days in a row now.
Rasmussen has had O:48 M:47 for 3 days now. If the theory that Dems poll better over the weekends is true, I suspect tomorrow we will see the Rasmussen # tied, and McCain up 1 on Wednesday.
Thanks for posting! We all know that it’s gonna be close, no matter what, right up to the end. We just have to keep working, and hope that the McCain campaign is on top of its game. And we have to remember that polling is an inexact science at best, and that the MSM is NOT on our side.
Let’s roll!
Way too close for me.
PinG!
This is great news. Although Rasmussen has Obama up by just 1, it evens it out with Battlegound showing McCain plus 1. MUCH improvement since Friday!!!!! On a roll.....
Election 2008 Latest Polls
PresidentSenateHouseGovernorJob Approval/Misc.Monday, September 22
Race Poll Results Spread
National Rasmussen Tracking Obama 48, McCain 47 Obama +1
North Carolina Rasmussen McCain 50, Obama 47 McCain +3
Minnesota Rasmussen Obama 52, McCain 44 Obama +8
Nevada Suffolk University McCain 46, Obama 45 McCain +1
Pennsylvania NBC/Mason-Dixon Obama 46, McCain 44 Obama +2
National Battleground Tracking Obama 47, McCain 48 McCain +1
....so, it's good thing Election Day is on Tuesday, right?
Obambi must be up 6-8% to have even a chance to win the electoral college.
That’s good to know and thanks.
The only way to gauge poll numbers is watch and see WHO pulls out of what state OR who is bombarding states with ADs. Didn’t I just hear OZERO pulled out of ND?? Forget the polls keep an eye on who is doing what in each individual state. FREEPERS it’s your duty to see to it that you info us of any changes in your state! TEXAS is McPAL country and I’m proud to proclaim them as our CHOICE!
Considering a few effects, one being that ‘rats consistently don’t “poll” as well at the actual poll as they do in polls leading up to election day,
indeed, 0bambi needs to go into November with at least a 5 pt lead in order to avoid a sure defeat.
I wish these pollsters would stick to polling and reporting actual results, leave the interpretation of the numbers to the reader instead of adding their weightings and spin. Just the facts, please!!
Gallup made a big change last week and the Wizbang website did a nice analysis of the Gallup huge Pro - Obama twicking .
Your right . We were working for the McPalin ticket in Renno this weekend .
I think they are all clueless on how to poll this election. I wouldn’t put stock in any numbers, and certainly, not numbers before the debates.
That being said, I don’t see a winning formula for 0bama. 15-20% defections from Team Hillary, likely 10% defection on account of racist Democrats, loss of ‘bitter’ voters. Even with some overlap, you are talking about 20% defection from his own party.
There aren’t enough young voters (that might or might not vote) and blacks that don’t already vote straight Democrat to make up that difference.
In a 3% Nation when it comes to the WH, you cannot lose 20% of your base and get elected. Polls be danged. Team 0bama was counting on a demoralized Republican base to even those odds, same as 2006. Palin changed that.
There is only ONE. One poll that counts. The rest - fluff electioneering.
1. Ras samples a much larger size of likely voters...
2. Ras does it over 3 consecutive days... This is sporadic... 200 polled on 9/14 (over a week ago, before the market crisis), 400 polled 9/17-9/18, and 200 yesterday.
Friday was a good polling day for Obama in Rasmussen’s poll. That day drops off tomorrow. Meanwhile, as for that theory about weekend polls, have you checked what Gallup is doing? In that poll, a huge Obama day (last Thursday) drops off today and McCain appearantly had a strong weekend. We will know for sure later today.
That’s NOT true... Never been proven. Just a FR myth
The one other thing that concerns me about these polls is do they account in any way for cell phones? It worries me if they don’t since so many young people live on those things and The Messiah supposedly has all the young skulls filled with mush.
It’s been posted a few times. Cell phones are polled.
Rasmussen’s demographics have always favored the Dems because that’s what his analysis of the registrations tells him. There are simply more registered democrats then there are Republicans and it has been that way for a long time.
Rasmussen’s demographics have always favored the Dems because that’s what his analysis of the registrations tells him. There are simply more registered democrats then there are Republicans and it has been that way for a long time.
If he wins the General Election tally by 2%, in all likelihood, he’ll win the EC as well (could be way less than 2%).
I really don’t know where you come by that idea.
People complain about RASS every election if it doesn’t show what they want it too, but every election they get very close to the actual results. Unlike other polls, they don’t have huge swings and they don’t dramaically adjust their numbers at the last minute to remain “credible” either.
If people want to take shots at Gallop, fine. Gallop for no particular reason in 2004 gave Kerry a few percentage at the end that they couldn’t account for. But RASS is ONLY interested in maintaining a credible poll.
It is possible their weighting of party affiliation may be off, but it’s a strange election. Up until a month ago a lot of conservatives weren’t even planning to vote giving the Dems a huge favor in identification. But I’m also certain RASS will make the necessary adjustments.
Battleground is usually a credible poll as well. As is Mason Dixon. But after 3 elections of nailing the results I am not going to indulge the idea RASS isn’t credible.
It’s not an FR myth. It is a fairly mainstream belief among beltway types that polls conducted over the weekend lean Democrat, supposedly because we Republicans are all at our vacation houses or something like that.
Either way, it hasn’t been proven with certainty (though it does seem true that weekend polls skew left).
I’m waiting for the Ras to come out too.
No offense, but this what is “great” about this news? Only 3 points up in NC? 1 point up in NV? Trailing in PA?
If McCain were worried about NC they would be scrambling to put together appearances there. That said, I’m sure McCain-Palin will stop there before election day. I’m not at all worried about that state. As for PA and NV, what did you expect? A 10% lead for us? We are very well positioned to carry those states with us heading into the foreign policy debate.
Rasmussen weights towards Democrats pretty aggressively, correct?
So...trying to be rosy here...it is possible that they have overweighted and that Mac’s numbers are slightly higher, right?
I agree
Right now Rasmussen assigns the Democrats a 5.5% party ID advantage which, historically, is slightly higher than average. He adjusts those weightings every week now.
Gallup for example doesn’t weight by party. They just call until they reach their desired total sample size.
So, yes, it’s possible that Rasmussen may be overweighted and may favor McCain. But I wouldn’t grasp there. One point down is nothing.
The sky is falling.
Gallop for no particular reason in 2004 gave Kerry a few percentage at the end that they couldn’t account for.”
The final Gallup poll was actually on the money in 2004. It showed Bush up by slightly less than 2, with 3% undecided.
I'm not thrilled with McCain myself, but I'M GOING TO VOTE FOR HIM regardless. You think I'll vote for the alternative? No way, Jose.
One point down is nothing.”
True, today.
Not true on Nov. 1.....
The final Gallup poll of the 1976 election had Ford at 49% and Carter at 48%. We know what happened.
No, I don’t want to be one point down come election day but the sky would not be falling. Besides, Obama closed TERRIBLY in the primaries with last-minute undecideds.
Yeah, I understood that.
I agree that we can’t hang our hat there. I think the debates between Straight Talk and Dr. Um will give us that point....
Exactly. GOOD for you. There are no “lessons” to be learned. We either win or we lose. And if we lose we have to live with it, probably for 8 years or more.
Besides, Obama closed TERRIBLY in the primaries with last-minute undecideds.”
Hope for Michigan and Pennsylvania!
(Hopefully our friends at the NRA will be putting in millions into those states!).
If I were the NRA I’d target 5 or 6 states: OH, VA, CO, PA, WI, and NC. If in fact we are only 3% up there. A few ads won’t hurt.
Gallup polls are more volatile for two reasons. One, they poll registered voters, not likely voters. This means more Democrats who don't vote in the sample. It further means that movements in their poll are more likely to reflect voter intensity than actual voter preferences (Obama voters are more willing to talk to pollsters when things are going well for him, and ditto for McCain voters). Moreover, Gallup itself said about 10 days ago that their likely voter polls are about 4-5 points more Republican than their registered voter polls.
Second, they don't weight their polls by party identification. There are arguments that go both ways on this, but weighting by party is the notorious method of choice for media polls that attempt to show the Democratic candidate doing better than he actually is. There isn't a shred of evidence I know of that Gallup is biased towards Democrats or liberals.
Rasmussen made that comment about changing party percentages.
He is a TV star now and a close race gets him on TV .
He is not factoring in Rush’s Operation Chaos in NC, PA, Ohio, and ID.
Even Bambi camp complained about these Cross over voters.
Gallup's final poll predicted that Kerry led by 2 points among registered voters, but Bush would win by 2 points among likely voters. Bush actually won by 2.7 points. Gallup noted recently that its likely voter pool is at least 4 points more GOP than its registered voter poll.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.