Posted on 09/21/2008 9:59:37 AM PDT by Aria
Today's Polls, 9/20 Barack Obama continues to move upward slightly in our electoral projections on the strength of strong national tracking polls. Rasmussen attributes him with a lead -- though it's just one point -- for the first time in ten days, while Gallup has him hitting the 50-percent barrier for just the second time all year, and expanding his lead over John McCain to 6 points overall. Our model has now more or less fully caught up with Obama's "Lehman Leap", and so he cannot expect too many more gains from inertia alone.
The state polling out today, however, presents a more complicated picture, including some decent results for John McCain:
Looks like Obama may be having trouble with his 57-state strategy.
McCain really mismanaged this situation this week. They needed to immediately do a big ad run on Jim Johnson, Franklin Raines and Obama as #2 money recipient of these orgs. Then, the McCain proposal from three years ago. Establish being on top of this issue. When last week ended, I said this week was going to be a pivotal week, and for the first time since July the McCain really seemed off the mark.
Its early.
He’s only betting on yesterday’s polls.
Plenty of time if McCain/Palin are competitive which they are.
National polls will mean less and less every passing day.
They did.
OMG is right if BO gets in with a Republican proof Congress and the Supreme Court nominations coming up. We’re not gonna like it.
I think McCain is going to win.
I hope so!
I suspect that between the Bradley Effect and the vote fraud we can expect from Obama supporters that this election is unusually difficult to predict.
It’s the economy stupid.
However, with McCain ahead in Ohio and Virgina, and with McCain tied with Barry in Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania -- and with polls indicating Washington and Oregon and Wisconsin in play -- and with polls indicating McCain ahead in Nevada and Colorado -- I suspect this liberal hack will be proven wrong.
I’ve been reading the 538 guy for a month. He discloses he supports Obama.
As long as you read his stuff realizing he’s coming from that perspective, it is a pretty good site. I like to read his work.
He missed one: 2000 electorial map except Obama wins Colorado and McCain wins Wisconsin.
that could turn is Iowa. Refuse to believe Iowa is +10 Obama.
Agee with all you wrote. Volatility after each debate or international event.
Iowa is NOT being accepted by the campaign as the team was there this past week.
These national polls are nearly all “registered voters” and we know the difference it will make when the boys limit interviews to “likely voters.”
States to watch CO, NM, Nevada, NH, Iowa, Michigan and maybe PA.
The polls do not mean anything. What we are seeing is what is called “the Bradley effect”, meaning people will fib to the polling folks in order not to look “racist” and then end up voting for Sen.McCain.
(1) The financial meltdown which probably is now nearly over and in two weeks is likely to be a distant memory for most voters.
(2) Power failures kept millions of republicans in texas from answering their phones making it appear that there was an inexplicable increase in the number of democrats. Rasmussen which uses a 6 week average of party ID was only slightly affected by this while Gallup which does not adjust for party id was artificially oversampling democrats.
Evidence for point (2) includes: Rasmussen reported a huge uptick in democrats answering the phone "early in the week" which was exactly when Ike was affecting people, and he said that started to evaporate as the week wore on. Rasmussen attributed this to the "Lehman Meltdown".
But the financial crisis on wall street continued to build all week long and only started turning around late in the day on Thursday so clearly Rasmussen is incorrect. The shift toward democrats should have held all the way until Thursday afternoon if were due to the financial meltdown. It did not. It started to clear up as soon as millions of people regained their power in Texas.
The conclusion: this apparent obama "surge" this week was just that: apparent. It will mostly be gone by midweek.
Here are the results going back to the week of 30-Jun-2008:
| Week | GOP Electoral Votes |
Probability of 270 |
|---|---|---|
| 30-Jun | 247.61 | 14.79% |
| 7-Jul | 243.61 | 10.79% |
| 14-Jul | 246.70 | 12.66% |
| 21-Jul | 242.84 | 7.08% |
| 28-Jul | 230.98 | 2.46% |
| 4-Aug | 232.92 | 3.11% |
| 11-Aug | 234.99 | 4.16% |
| 18-Aug | 244.11 | 11.64% |
| 25-Aug | 253.91 | 21.71% |
| 08-Sep | 260.56 | 32.23% |
| 15-Sep | 275.60 | 62.48% |
| 22-Sep | 276.75 | 64.37% |
For comparison, if you think that Republicans are underpolled, the sensitivity of the Rasmussen state-by-state polls is such that an across-the-board 1% reduction in Obama polling and a 1% increase in McCain polling results in 306.32 Electoral Votes for McCain, with a 96.42% chance of winning.
Here are my leanings of the states based on Rasmussen polls:
| Safe (100%) R | Strong (86%-99%) R | Likely (70%-85%) R | Lean (60%-69%) R | Toss-Up | Lean (60%-69%) D | Likely (70%-85%) D | Strong (86%-99%) D | Safe (100%) D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama (9) | South Carolina (8) | Florida (27) | Colorado (9) | Pennsylvania (21) | New Hampshire (4) | Maine (4) | Iowa (7) | California (55) |
| Alaska (3) | West Virginia (5) | Missouri (11) | Indiana (11) | Virginia (13) | Washington (11) | Michigan (17) | - | Connecticut (7) |
| Arizona (10) | - | North Carolina (15) | Nevada (5) | - | Wisconsin (10) | Minnesota (10) | - | District of Columbia (3) |
| Arkansas (6) | - | - | New Mexico (5) | - | - | Oregon (7) | - | Delaware (3) |
| Georgia (15) | - | - | Ohio (20) | - | - | - | - | Hawaii (4) |
| Idaho (4) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | Illinois (21) |
| Kansas (6) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | Maryland (10) |
| Kentucky (8) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | Massachusetts (12) |
| Louisiana (9) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | New Jersey (15) |
| Mississippi (6) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | New York (31) |
| Montana (3) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | Rhode Island (4) |
| Nebraska (5) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | Vermont (3) |
| North Dakota (3) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Oklahoma (7) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| South Dakota (3) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Tennessee (11) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Texas (34) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Utah (5) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Wyoming (3) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
-PJ
That is quite interesting and illustrates the wisdom of picking Sarah - despite what the rats are trying to say.
....from your mouth to Gods’ ear! Bring ‘er home,Lord! :)
Polls are behind a campaign's decision to spend more or less on a particular state or region.
Polls are the incentive for a candidate to go positive or negative.
The polls dictate the momentum of a candidate, not to mention whether or not his or her message is working.
In other words, polls DO have a lot to do with a campaign... and they certainly are not nothing.
McCain has got to swallow his "independent' instinct to constantly slam Republicans and immediately do something bold, like call for the indictment of "Obama advisers" Franklin Raines or Johnson.....
At the very least, McCain should run five solid days of campaign TV ads showing proof positive the connection between Biden/Obama's Democratic henchmen and the current fiscal crisis.
Stop this polite "Queensbury rules" nonsense Mr. McCain, and go for the juglar....
For months, the Obama crowd has been using the "Bush lied" crapola while threatening to indict Cheney for murder ... and the GOP has been sitting on its hands like a bunch of polite Sunday School girls.
GO IN FOR THE POLITICAL JUGLAR, Mr. McCain... Our Judeo-Christian American way of life is at stake.
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