Rasmussen: Barack Obama 48% John McCain 47%

Rassmussen Reports ^ | 9/21/08 | Rasmussen

[mathprof]

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows no change from yesterday as Barack Obama attracts 48% of the vote while John McCain earns 47%. Obama has gained ground over the past week after trailing by three percentage points last Sunday. The race is now back where it was for most of August before the two conventions and the Vice Presidential picks

[mathprof]

Well, at least things are flat versus yesterday, rather than worse.

[jmaroneps37]

Given the bradley factor this is nice news but I find only 4 points of undecideds frankly not believable.

[goldstategop]

I like where we are. Obama has had a week's worth of favorable publicity and he can't close the sale with the American people.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[mathprof]

Well, the report says this:

With the race so close, the debates scheduled to begin this Friday night could be more significant than usual. That’s especially true since 21% of voters say they are either uncommitted or could change their mind before voting.

[albie]

The “Bradley” factor isn’t even reflected in this. And I don’t believe anyone can accurately measure the “Bradley” factor.

[MuttTheHoople]

Is this registered or likely voters? On one hand, I can't believe the American people would actually elect such an anti=American candidate like Barack Obama. Then again, I couldn't believe it when we elected a draft-dodger like Bill Clinton twice.

The one good thing is, with the polls so close, it'll make the GOP work harder to get out the vote. NO ONE will be too discourged to stay away from the polls come November 4.

[MuttTheHoople]

Is this registered or likely voters? On one hand, I can't believe the American people would actually elect such an anti=American candidate like Barack Obama. Then again, I couldn't believe it when we elected a draft-dodger like Bill Clinton twice.

The one good thing is, with the polls so close, it'll make the GOP work harder to get out the vote. NO ONE will be too discourged to stay away from the polls come November 4.

[Hones]

Looks like things have stabilized again. I think we can all agree that this wasn't McCain's best week. I think its a real positive for him that his numbers did not collapse more, and now are starting to rebound. He seems to be holding on in the key states we need to win FLA/OH (although they may have tightened). MI and PA are also extremely close, just need to find a way to flip one of these.

[goldstategop]

Sure they are. And Obama, with all the media support and favorable winds at his back, can't solidify his lead. Gee, I wonder why.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[6SJ7]

What do these polls measure? The race has changed dramatically from a month ago with the addition of the VP candidates alone along with wild fluctuations in the market and the fallout from Freddie and Fannie; and the net result is *no* change in the polls. This defies logic.

Next thing you know, Biden is going to be walking around talking about toasters and Beretta shotguns and we’ll be hearing there is ... no change in the polls.

[Amelia]

I think a strong independent candidate could steal this thing right now, if there were such an animal....

[albie]

“21% of voters say they are either uncommitted or could change their mind”

...this is absolutely insane. How in the world could you NOT be able to make an informed decision by now. If you vote for BO you’re either clueless or Marxist. Take your pick but it’s one of the 2.

[goldstategop]

Supposedly transient changes in voter mood which is junk science. In truth, I'd bet $10 that none of the pollsters knows what the American people really think.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[Don Corleone]

Let’s talk Electoral votes. That is where its at.

[bert]

How in the world could you NOT be able to make an informed decision by now.

You lie

[TomGuy]

Gallup latest shows a greater difference with Obama at 50%, tying with his all-time high, and McCain at 45%.

Barring a major terrorist attack before the November election, this election will be about the economy. And that could give Obama the win.

The Palin factor seems to have peaked and is now settling.

[tobyhill]

***Reports will be 39.0% Democratic, 33.5% Republican, and 27.5% unaffiliated.***

I think there is an oversampling of Rats and if it is then I see McCain up by at least 3% in reality. I believe this is why Obama is panicking. The other thing is that unaffiliated is more of a term used for Conservatives rather than Libs to Rats. I see the unaffiliated breaking 60% for McCain.

[TonyInOhio]

This is excellent news; McCain has weathered the storm this week, and the edge the bad economic news would give to Barry, according to the MSM, has failed to materialize.

Consider, FReepers - Barry has poured hundreds of millions of dollars into the race to date, and has had untold millions more of "in kind" contributions courtesy of his backers in the MSM, and he can't pull away. To my mind, it shows the fundamental weakness of his campaign - he just can't close the deal.

[goldstategop]

Exactly. With everything he has going for him, the big question in Americans' minds is: why can't he do it?

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[Paul_B]

The media’s concentrated effort to erase McCain’s campaign bounce has been working.

[forYourChildrenVote4Bush]

What i would like to know is what part of the country are these phone calls made to??

I wish they could come up with a map of the USA and a dot for every phone call....All pollsters....

Just to see where the calls are concentrated in?

Does anyone have such a thing???

[fwdude]

this election will be about the economy. And that could give Obama the win.

I still can't figure out what Obama's plan is for the economy, other than higher taxes and much more regulation. So what's the public voting on?

[Bringbackthedraft]

“The smart boys say we can’t win. They tried to bluff us with a propaganda blitz, but we called their bluff, we told the people the truth. And the people are with us. The tide is rolling. All over the country. I have seen it in the people’s faces. The people are going to win this election.” ........................ ? HST! So much for polls. Back then even Gallup had Dewey as the winner.

[Paradox]

I'll go on record as saying that in this election, that the Bradley Effect won't work in help us. I think it will be canceled out by the "Every Homeless Guy with a Heartbeat" vote.

Therefore, we should not be confident in its effect.

[goldstategop]

Perhaps. But they still cannot help Obama break 50% and this is in spite of all the laudatory and glowing coverage they've given him over the past year. McCain will sooner break 50% than Obama will - and I would hazard a guess the American people don't like to be told for whom they must vote!

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[Canedawg]

“I don’t believe anyone can accurately measure the “Bradley” factor.”

Bradley Effect and voter fraud are two wildcards this election.

To some extent they will nullify each other. But imo there will be a higher bradley effect now that barry’s followers have been instructed to “get in people’s faces”.

Without voter fraud, there would be little doubt as to the outcome of the election.

[Edit35]

This is excellent news;

Not excellent enough for me.

Time for everyone.... everyone, to put McCain/Palin bumper stickers on everthing that holds glue...

And if you can afford it, get those nice color stickers of Sarah Palin and put them on your local food store, on phone booths (are they still in existance?) .... gas stations.

Buy a nice Palin Power tee-shirt and wear it everywhere possible, and make sure to strike up at least five conversations every day telling the disgrace that is Obama, and the strength and character that is McCain and Sarah Palin.

We can't rely on some mythical organization to get the job done.

WE ARE that mythical organization... the good and decent people of America, in all 50 states.

[Hones]

I don't know . I saw a couple of polls that show Obama’s perceived edge on handling economy has been dropping as the week went on. Maybe people are starting to realize he is clueless. Did you see his “press conference” the idea? It was laughable.

[TonyInOhio]

this election will be about the economy. And that could give Obama the win.

Nope. This election is about Barry's fitness for office, and he just can't clear the final hurdle. Do you see even a little ray of sunshine in this election, Tom? It seems you're determined to give up.

[CapnJack]

“Barring a major terrorist attack before the November election, this election will be about the economy. And that could give Obama the win.

The Palin factor seems to have peaked and is now settling.”

Yup ... thats the way I’m seeing it AND hearing it from a lot of people. They see McCain as part of the financial problem ... even though they don’t know anything about the financial problem.

[NoobRep]

A month of Ayers and Wright ads will seal McCain as our next President. People are going to get “reminded” of Obama’s associations again very soon.

[Vermont Lt]

They make a lot of phone calls beyond those counted in the sample. When they make the call, they ask a number of qualifying questions: Age, gender, affiliation. They need to make sure their sample matches the demographics they deem to be necessary to meet the statistical model.

For example, once they have enough “male, 45, republicans from Massachusetts” to match their need, the program they use tosses out the call.

So, to answer your question, a map showing where the final calls were from would be the same every day. Some days its takes more calls to get there than others.

This is how you remove as much bias from your model as possible. The differences between on system and another is not who they talk to, but the statistical model they use to generate the call list.

The question is whether today’s model is accurate is another question. It is best to look at these things over time.

Anyway, national polls dont really matter. The electoral college polls have more bearing. If you toss out leaners, the election would be tied at 269 if you move NH from Obama to McCain.

Scary.

[TomGuy]

I still can't figure out what Obama's plan is for the economy, other than higher taxes and much more regulation. So what's the public voting on?

Their pocketbooks.

If they perceive that they are worse off or are under financial stress, they vote for change.

If they perceive that they are doing well financially, they vote for status quo.

If their bank closed, if their mortgage or loan application was denied, if the fuel costs are high, if their food purchases have drastic changes, if their utility bills are substantially higher than last year, etc., they will vote for change.

[TomGuy]

McCain will sooner break 50% than Obama will - and I would hazard a guess the American people don't like to be told for whom they must vote!

I'm not so sure. Every time he seems to get a couple of points ahead, he opens his mouth with one of his 'former' positions and reminds us of who he actually is. Just this week he promised Hispanics he would continue to push for comprehensive immigration reform --- amnesty. McCain still doesn't get it on several major issues.

I am apprehensive that Palin is the pea in a McCain shellgame: Now we see her; in a McCain Administration, we won't.

[adorno]

...this is absolutely insane. How in the world could you NOT be able to make an informed decision by now. If you vote for BO you’re either clueless or Marxist.

Yesterday, I took my car to a repair shop for a minor repair. I decided to wait in their waiting area while the repair was done. In that waiting area, they had a TV tuned to CNN and there were a couple of ladies also waiting for their cars to be repaired.

It was a morning show on CNN and they were showing Obama criticizing McCain for stating that the fundamentals of the economy were sound, and how McCain didn't know how to address the housing market "crash". The ladies in the room were shaking their heads and looking at one another and stating how Obama was their candidate.

I asked one of them if she actually believed what Obama was saying. She said yes. I asked both of them if they had actually examined what it was that Obama was saying and if he actually understood what he was saying. They nodded and both said yes, of course.

I then asked them about what actual experience Obama had in his past that qualified him to lead a very complex economy and the most powerful military in the world. They both answered that it didn't matter about experience, that he represented "change" and they were looking for change. I told them about how much actual experience he had, including 143 actual days in the senate before he decided to go for the presidency. I also pointed out how Obama had the least experience of anybody in the last 100 years before deciding to run for president. I also pointed out how McCain had so much more experience than Obama in all areas that a president gets involved in.

In all cases, those two ladies said it didn't matter to them, that they had their minds made up. One of them also pointed out how McCain would just be the same as Bush. I pointed out to them that it was just a campaign slogan by the Obama campaign and that McCain had gone against Bush on so many issues. I even pointed out to them that McCain was so "not republican" and more of a democrat than a republican in the last 8 years, and that even John Kerry had considered him to be his VP nominee. They said they didn't believe it and no matter what, they were going to vote for Obama.

One of them pointed out how bad the economy was and how there were too many jobs being sent overseas. I pointed out to them that high taxes was one of the main culprits that made many companies ship jobs overseas. They said they didn't believe it and that it was just greedy companies trying to get rich off the poor.

I even asked one of them, if she were to run a small business, what would happen to her bottom line if taxes were to be raised and she had less money to hire people or pay better salaries or benefits. She bluntly stated that she didn't care about running a business and even went as far as repeating Joe Biden's line about how paying taxes is patriotic.

After that incident in the repair shop, I realized that there are just too many people whose minds are so made up that there is just no amount of logic or common sense that can reach them. These are the same people who, even if they know what the truth is or who causes an economy to perform badly, would still vote for the person who would be guaranteed to make things worse. Those two ladies were democrats (I asked), and they would never vote republican. Not even if their lives depended upon it. Those people are party first, country last.

[LS]

The FOX guys were on last night completely disagreeing with you. The “economy,” they say, will be fixed-—certainly the financial “crisis” is already going to be a matter of law without either of these guys having done anything. No crises, no economic advantage to either side, esp. when the Messiah keeps saying the fundamentals are NOT good. Their opinion was that it would be a wash.

[Maelstorm]

There are more undecideds.

[TomGuy]

After that incident in the repair shop, I realized that there are just too many people whose minds are so made up that there is just no amount of logic or common sense that can reach them.

I quit watching Jay Leno's Jaywalking several years ago. It was too frightening and sad -- to realize -- they vote.

[LS]

Well, so that really didn't prove much. We know few Dems cross the aisle, EVER, to vote for a Republican. But here in OH, while you might not get it out in a conversation with white Dems, there are a LOT who are uncomfortable about voting for Obama and I think a significant portion (maybe 10% of the total Dem vote) will quietly vote McCain.

That said, I'm not sure that would go for a state like CO or WI, and it's CO that has me worried.

[ShandaLear]

I don’t understand why economic issues favor Obama when his answer is higher taxes. The polling I’ve seen on this issue shows no evidence that voters think Obama has a better economic plan.

[MrChips]

"No change" may mean "change in McCain's direction" if the last day in a tracking average was an upturn.

Also, does anyone know if these polls are done with percentages by state? If so, then heavily tilting big states like New York and California could skew the results of a national poll, couldn't they?

[TomGuy]

The FOX guys were on last night completely disagreeing with you. The “economy,” they say, will be fixed-—certainly the financial “crisis” is already going to be a matter of law without either of these guys having done anything. No crises, no economic advantage to either side, esp. when the Messiah keeps saying the fundamentals are NOT good. Their opinion was that it would be a wash.

A band-aid to delay major surgery. And they assume no more major shoes to drop.

The economy is like a freight train. It does not stop nor start on a dime. It took months/years for it to become the current crisis; it will takes months to get it corrected -- after Congress decides how to proceed.

Other major financial entities are teetering. If more fall, this crisis is long from being over.

And the election is less just 43 days from now.

Congress may pass quick legislation to avert the immediate crisis, but systemic economic disaster still looms. And it will take more than 43 days to fix that.

[snarkytart]

Yes, but it does worry me that McCain has never been ahead of Obama with the exception being after his convention for several days.
Now it’s back to where it was before both conventions. Bush lead Kerry most of September and October.
I guess we’ll see where it stands after the debates.

[olivia3boys]

I talked to an “undecided” just Fri at work. She will definitely vote (she always does) but truly hasn’t decided yet.

She hates Bush, hates Palin, hates Obama.
She’s neutral on McCain, but his “connection” to Bush and his VP pick make her a true “undecided.”

I also have another undecided friend with the exact same thinking. In her case she claims Palin has driven her to cast an unenthusiastic vote for Obama.

Luckily this is all in CA so it doesn’t matter much as it is an Obama safe state anyway.

[olivia3boys]

Oh, and also—in the first case, I recommended to my coworker that she watch all 4 debates before deciding. She said she definitely will. ..

[uncbob]

.this is absolutely insane. How in the world could you NOT be able to make an informed decision by now. If you vote for BO you’re either clueless or Marxist.

Pretty much describes the electorate in general --biggest % are either knee jerk dems or knee jerk GOP --Maybe 10% know what the hell is going on and the undecided might as well stay home and play Nintendo games

[daler]

"I guess we’ll see where it stands after the debates."

Oh...you mean when McCain kicks a**, followed by the MSM telling us it was either a big win for Obama, or at the very least a tie?

[snarkytart]

Oh I know the media will say Obama won.

[LS]

In case you haven’t noticed, this “train” has been going this direction for three years. So it may well be near the station.
But have it your way. Let’s elect Obama. I’m sure he’ll solve everything.

[o2bfree]

If McCain rejects all or part of the wall street bailout, his numbers will skyrocket!

No more democratic socialism! No more schemes!

Not sure he will do this, but on Fox news William Kristol said it was possible. I sure hope to hell he does it, and suggests a better idea.