Posted on 09/12/2008 2:22:38 PM PDT by Chet 99
This Marist Poll reports:
Presidential Race in New Jersey
· Democratic Presidential Candidate Barack Obama Leads Republican Opponent John McCain by 7 Percentage Points in New Jersey: With 15 electoral votes up for grabs in New Jersey, 47% of registered voters in the state say they support Senator Barack Obama for president while 40% say they back Senator John McCain. That’s the same margin in New Jersey with which former Democratic Presidential candidate John Kerry beat President George W. Bush in the 2004 presidential election. However, Obama’s lead shrinks when looking at likely voters, including those who are leaning toward a specific candidate. 48% of likely voters support Obama while 45% are behind McCain. So, how does support break down along party lines among likely voters? 83% of likely Democratic voters say they support their party’s candidate, Barack Obama, while 87% of likely Republican voters back John McCain. And, among New Jersey’s all-important likely Independent voters, including those leaning toward a candidate, 51% support Barack Obama compared with 41% for McCain.
(Excerpt) Read more at maristpoll.marist.edu ...
Wow NJ is in play.
This should probably have [NJ] appended to the title to clear up any confusion.
If NJ is in play, the times, they are ‘a changin’
If NJ stays in play, this has the potential to be a slaughter.
But that’s a big “if.”
At first I thought it said “Marxist Poll” and I thought McCain was REALLY making up ground!
A 3-point race in NJ!
Anyhow, McCain within three in NJ is excellent news!
NJ is a sucker bet. The polls always get close this far out but swing 10 points or so towards the Dems in the election.
A poll of 500 welfare mothers?
“Anyhow, McCain within three in NJ is excellent news!”
Which means, in terms of the hate/smears that will be spewed on Sarah by the left - you ain’t seen nothing yet.
WOW!
Obama camp is FREAKING OUT!
NJ even being CLOSE to being in play is amazing.
If he's as short on cash as some are suggesting, that's going to be a serious problem.
I live in NJ. I’m hoping my vote will actually count for something in this election.
Bush only last by 7 to Kerry in NJ in ‘04...why shouldn’t be close again? McCain seems more palatable to democrats and independents that Bush does...
Michelle may have to go back to being ashamed of America.
I’m liking the trend.
If McCain wins OH, FL, IN, VA, NM and NV (states Bush won in 2004) that would get McCain 270 EV’s without CO. What do you think?
Probably. But the Dems pucker factor just went up. LoL!
It must be nice. My vote in CA hasn't counted since the 1988 election (Bush-Dukakis).
So much for that 50 state strategy, I guess... I heard (Howie Carr?) today that even Massachusetts has it within single digs.
YES! LOL! The imploding continues
Wow. In 2004, Kerry won New Jersey by 6.6% of the vote, in an election where he lost nationally by 2.7% of the vote. In other words, the state trended about 9.3% more Democratic than the national vote. For McCain to be this close — in a state chock full of soccer mom types — is very interesting.
NJ is never in play.
If they go there to campaigjn they are foolish. Every election cycle they say it’s closing in, Reps go campaign there, and in the end not close.
Jersey numbers are only relevant in so much as they can give a tell how the national campaign is faring. This percentage would indicate we’re closing back to 2004 levels which should be good news for the GOP.
States we really need to watch are N.M., Iowa, Wisconsin, I guess Michigin though I’m having a hard time believing it. And especially Colorado.
Still, I hope this doesn’t make Whoopi have to be a slave again...
Barry's in trouble.
And again, there’s that very low base support of 83% for barack mcgovern. The nation wide low base number is real my friends.
For Pete's sake. If McCain wins Ohio or even FL, he's going to win Colorado by an even bigger margin. The state is less red than it used to be, but still redder than Ohio and at least as red or redder than FL.
I remember Bush campaigning and spending money on NJ in the final week of 2000 rather than in Florida.
I was at the McCain/Palin office in Woodbridge NJ and it was crowded and energized. I had to explain to the office manager who FReerepublic is, though.
I am invited to the Middlesex County Democratic Dinner Party on Tuesday and I will post their sentiment the next day.
NJ is a funny place where politics are concerned. The majority of ppl I speak to claim to be dems but when questioned on issues of gay rights, abortion, taxes, gov spending, they tend to be mod rep in their answers.
They hate the way things are... Yet, they still vote the same ppl into office in every election. When asked, they think corruption is all part of the politics game.
Weird place this state.
“If McCain wins OH, FL, IN, VA, NM and NV (states Bush won in 2004) that would get McCain 270 EV’s without CO. What do you think?”
I think you got A’s in math.
I think if NJ goes for McCain, then it’s a historic electoral wipeout. Obama may only carry DC.
Isn't one of the EVs in Nebraska in play for Obama since that state splits its congressional district EVs? If so, then the above scenario would be a nightmare, which would result in a 269-269 tie. Obama would win that scenario since the Senate, controlled by DEMs, would then decide the election.
CA. I feel your pain.
You are deep in the leftist doo-doo there.
That’s what I thought at first too...LOL Reminder to self: Do not read headlines without glasses on.....
Don’t fall for it!
Every election, in 2004 Bush-Kerry, in 2005 with Forrester, in 2006 with Tom Kean, Jr., I can remember how republicans were oh-so-close in New Jersey and lost in big in November.
It’s a lie.
It is at the point where I think the polls are frauds put out by the DNC to get republicans to waste money and time in a hopeless state.
That does not mean that NJ is in play. I suspect the poll numbers do not matter at any point. The Democrat will win New Jersey. Dead-Americans vote there in very high percentages and do not respond to polls.
CatOwner,
I have a brother in CA. He tells me that to save some “threatened fish” they’re going to turn off the water supply running from the northern part of the state to the southern.
Are you in So. CA? Have you heard of this?
The House, not the Senate, I think decides the president in an electoral tie.
I live in NJ and, even though my state always teases Republicans, it is a true blue state unfortunately. One can dream though. But if McCain wins NJ, you are right, it would be a landslide of Reagan 1984 proportions.
Jerome Corsi is lives in NJ.
He will have to reconsider his vote for Baldwin.
I was thinking that unlike Bush, McCain should ignore that state. You guys always tease early for the GOP and then pull the blue lever in Nov.
I belong to the Obama Regional Headquarters here NJ.
I've been busy touring through Newark, Camden and Trenton getting out the vote for Obama on November 5th.
It’s not a question of campaigning there. What is great about that is that means there is yet another blue state for which Obama will have to spend money to defend.
You are correct that Nebraska (and Maine) are the only states to split their EC votes by district but the statewide winners have consistently swept all of the state’s districts as well. Consequently, neither state has ever split its electoral votes. And according to Real Clear Politics, Nebraska is in the McCain column. But a 269-269 tie would make the 2000 election look like a tea party. A true nightmare.
Marist has a pretty good reputation for polls in the Mid-Atlantic states. I can't imagine McCain will actually win there, but it is encouraging to see.
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