Posted on 09/11/2008 10:15:06 PM PDT by Reagan is King
The hidden story of the last week has been the shift in many states and nationwide among the youngest of voters, those ages 18-to-29, from a solid entrenchment in the Obama camp to a significant drift toward a newly revived John McCain effort, all courtesy of Gov. Sarah Palin.
Our survey approach keeps young respondents from being interviewed by young interviewers, thus avoiding the inevitable pressure a youthful poll respondent might feel to "fit in" and claim to be a supporter of Obama. As a result, younger voters, while still favoring Obama, have moved to the McCain column in not insubstantial numbers. Exit polls showed that among this group of voters, John Kerry carried their vote by roughly a 55 percent to 45 percent margin. But that was close enough to allow Bush to win the 2004 election by a fairly comfortable margin.
MTV will not be pleased.
I bet Obama will be in traction by the time the election is over.
Here's the full article:
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Can’t help it when the only thing Hussein spouts is “hope” and ‘change” like a broken IPod. AND young people can’t help it when the potential GOP VP is a MILF.
dont worry there are enough Hollywood idiots to make up for this loss
See Hollywood getting more and more involved now. This is GREAT news...the one factor this year which is different than all other years is the great youth get out the vote movement Obama has. THe polls don’t take that into consideration, and frankly, it’s been the wildcard. This puts me at ease.
Young people see Palin’s family and identify with them and their challenges... and that’s the reality Mr. O has to deal with.
Yes, I have to admit for the first 5 minutes of being exposed to him, I thought he was bringing positivity and new energy to politics. I wouldn’t have voted for him, but I didn’t dislike him. The more I saw him and learned about him, the more I came to despise him. I think he is the worst candidate they have had in a long time- worse than Kerry, Gore, and much worse than Bubba, Dukakis, and Mondale. Of course, I am solidly in the Conservative camp, but I can’t imagine others don’t notice how arrogant and negative he is.
Young people are into fads and fads by definition fade. Obama was fashionable over spring and summer but its time is gone.
The media is reporting that Camp 0bama is planning to go into full rabid mode tomorrow. McCain/Palin need to keep their cool and let the world finally see who the messiah really is.
I was suprised when a poll here in Michigan had McCain leading 50%-39% for the 18-29 age range. I wonder how many of these were in the sample and how the survey found them. It seems that this age group tends to have cell phones only and may not be listed in the normal way to be found.
if they vote...the youth vote isn’t reliable
He is starting to look a bit like howdy dowdy to me. The more I see of him the more he truly exceeds his reputation as an empty suit. He is vacuous, empty suit.
Turns out Ears-Hussein was right but not the way he meant it in that metrosexual faux-swagger of his.
Gallup uses cell phones. Wouldn’t be surprised if the other pollsters do too. Not an issue anymore IMO.
However, regarding that particular McCain+1 in Michigan poll, its internals are too screwy to be relied on as anything more than part of a general trend pointing to a close race in Michigan.
This is a pretty incomplete article. Where are the results of the poll?
This is a pretty incomplete article. Where are the results of the poll?
Most analysts agree that without a big turnout from young voters, Obama cannot win.
How did they know they ever “had” those votes? Teens change their minds every 10 seconds and are notoriously unreliable. I think they MEANT to vote for McCAIN the BALLOTS WERE CONFUSING! I demand a hand recount..NOW
They’ve been giving all their energy and money to him and riding high on his success for 19 months. Fatigue will affect his supporters sooner than McCain’s.
I remain focused on the electorate composition in the states of interest.
Michigan had a 14% black electorate in 2004. Wisconsin 6%. I have to suspect Wisconsin has an edge in flippability, just from that single number.
I agree. The last time I saw her was on a clip shown on FOX where she was dancing with Ellen D. That’s about it.
Maybe they just don’t like arugula.
My theory is OBAMA is just a large VENTRILOQUIT dummy. And is worked from back stage by remote ready to spit out LIBERAL talking POINTS. Michelle is the REAL power! A woman had to win it was preordained. SO the Unassuming wifeis the Power behind the THRONE!! Pay no attention to the persons behind the Curtain!! I AM THE GREAT AND POWERFULL OZ!! HAHAHAHAHA
http://i22.photobucket.com/albums/b311/TomoeGozen/oz.jpg
the lad peaked too early, kinda like a, well I won’t be vulgar, but you get the idea...
1. What are the poll numbers to which he purports to refer?
2. He's just a bit too Palin-focused. John McCain is the one who nominated Sarah Palin. McCain is also the one who got Republicans, along with some Democrats and many independents to identify with him, in the RNC. In many cases, that identification has run quite deeply.
I bet he has a real nasty mouth, cutting and vicious. His pig-gate is just a taste of the real “man”
note: they always compare him to girls. Paris, Spears and others, all female.
Democrats in 2008: "Americans don't want to hear about your stupid old Republican family! They want to hear Joe Biden talk about foreign policy!"
I wonder if he practices that walk.
''D'ya know what you call a candidate who's looking for the 'youth vote' to put him over the top? A loser.''
And now you begin to understand the ORGY of hate and venim being spewed by the panicking Dems and insane libs.
It’s all coming apart at the seams, and they don’t see any way to stop it, other than lies...
And at this point, I wouldn’t put VIOLENCE past some of the more delusional Obama Worshippers, either.
I would think McCain’s biography would also attract young voters.
Thin skinned and insecure with an iffy sexual identity,
Compare that to Sarah Palin - totally self confident and totally female.
That’s why he’s obsessed with her - she is everything he isn’t - or ever will be.
Yep. Sarah reminds many younger voters of mom.
You got it... and even though they may rebel against her...they still love her and deep down inside know she just might be right!
If Wisconsin is more flippable than Michigan, I would think it’s more a function of Wisconsin simply being a couple points more Republican than Michigan in 2000 and 2004 rather than because it’s less black. The smaller black electorate does not necessarily hurt Obama. The curious fact of this year’s Dem primaries was that Obama did best among white voters in states with low black populations (and presumably less history of racial strife). It seems that as a state’s black % goes up, his vote total from blacks of course goes up, but his share of the white vote goes down. It will be interesting to see how this all shakes out.
Every 4 years it's the same story but it never seems to materialize.
the fad switched to Palin.. the question is how do you keep her interesting? ... keep attacking her? haha
James Carville may be a democrat but he had enough sense to marry a Republican and if nobody told me he was a democrat, I would swear he’s one of those roughnecked republicans from down south if I had only just met him. He’s also responsible for the only Democratic president in the last 30 years so give him his political chops.
Obama’s loss of the young vote is due to one thing: going negative. It’s political science 101. When you go negative, voters who don’t normally vote get turned off and don’t bother to support you or turnup anymore. For a political science major in college, Obama sure has made so many acolyte mistakes that I wonder if he did anything in high school other than smoke dope.
I’ve been around many conservative young people that are alot more dedicated to the cause than most adults. They were the ones that stuffed mailboxes the night before elections, walked door to door, put up signs, stuffed envelopes and did the minutia of winning electiosns. We should be there with them. They are truly the future of the conservative movement. Some aren’t as dedicated.
0bama’s convention speech was flat. After they have built him up, and hyped up his speechmaking abilities for months, 38 million watched an underwhelming and uninspiring performance.
Analysts pinpoint Biden and Palin, but it is 0bama failing to live up to the Hype. There is not much 0bama can do now except hope for a scandal.
“The issue is not so much the number of young voters who have switched to McCain. It is more a question of how many of them have lost their enthusiasm for Obama and will now no longer volunteer for him or bother to show up to vote on election day.”
Totally agree with you, the “show-up” factor is enormously crucial wrt the yout’ vote. And strategically, undermining it is part of the winning effort. That’s why I’m becoming more and more comfortable with the scurrilous attacks on Sarah. As they fall flat and the folks who consider them as relevant find out that they are meaningless, infantile, and ultimately call into question the credibility of the bomb-throwers, this all works in our favor. Let it run, I say.
All the polls I saw showed he was losing traction EVERYWHERE, every age group, etc. I think the dirty little secret is that if he can’t take the woman vote by a good margin — NO CHANCE, and there’s a fly in the ointment....
We always take the male vote, no different this year. Wonder why he hates her so much? The transgender vote will NOT pull it out for him.
Just btw, I think it inarguable that Osamabama has refused to release his undergraduate transcript from Columbia because it would clearly reveal what a mediocrity (if that) he was as a student, and would likely prove to boot that he is and was just another affirmative-action loudmouth.
Law Review **EDITOR** at HLS? With ONE article published? Oh, please, just who is kidding whom here? Geez, Lou-ISE!
The newest crop of young people getting ready to vote were probably scared $h!tless on 9/11 when a lot of them were still in grade school. These kids aren’t stupid - they’re the first bunch to really have available the all-news 24/7 channels in their formative years, and they are going to want their country to be safe for their adult lives.
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