Posted on 09/10/2008 8:30:10 AM PDT by tomymind
Tallahassee, FL (AHN) - Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) is ahead by five points in the first poll of Sunshine State voters since the GOP convention last week.
According to the Public Policy Polling, McCain leads Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) 50-45 percent, up from his 47-44 percent advantage last month.
McCain has the support of white voters, 61-34 percent, men, 51-42 percent, and all age groups except those younger than 29 years. He leads seniors, 57-38 percent.
Obama holds the edge among Hispanics, 49-42 percent, blacks, 88-10 percent, and young voters, 52-44 percent.
Women are essentially tied between McCain and Obama at 49-47 percent.
Forty-five percent of voters said Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin made them more likely to support McCain, while 34 percent said they were less likely. Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) drew 36 percent more-likely responses for Obama and 30 percent less-likely answers.
Significant also is a five point shift in party identification toward Republicans.
"Barack Obama has dropped a few points each time we've polled Florida over the course of the summer," Public Policy Polling President Dean Debnam said in a news release. "Virginia and Colorado may end up as the states more critical to his Electoral College strategy this fall if the trend continues."
The survey was conducted from Sept. 6-7 among 968 likely voters. The margin of error is 3 percent.
Florida is a battleground state that decided the 2000 presidential election. It is one of six states with the most electoral votes, at 27. A candidate needs 270 out of the total 538 electoral votes from all states to win.
This is good news.
I’m all excited about Michigan being in play but it does us no good if Florida seeps through the cracks.
McCain will take it by 5 points.
Big news if McCain can hold on to Ohio and Florida with ease. It lets McCain focus on CO and MI to wrap it up. Two big Hockey states for the Hockey Mom to deliver.
CO and NV (or CO and NH) are the next targets. We need 272-273 EV at least.
Does anyone have a link to an up-to-date look at the electoral map (in its entirety?)
We WON’T lose FL, and I’m pretty sure McCain will keep OH. I’m only worried now about VA and CO. We get those two, it’s over. I think McCain will peel away the one EV from ME, and possibly NH.
Me = MI?
NH or NV
True to form.
He's never finished well.
There are only so many stupids here in Florida.
But I think we’ll go for McCain come election time.
And I wouldn’t trust any polls anywhere at this time.
Come time to throw the lever for the “magic negro”, a lot of folks will look at security and experience.
Doesn't each state have at least 3 EVs?
# of senators plus # of representatives.
bttt
IMHO, at least 5 points.
Does anyone know what percentage of Florida African-Americans were won by Kerry? I find the 88% number a bit low, suggesting that perhaps the "black" vote is not going to be reflexively voting for "one of their own" as many speculate. I think that is a good sign, for the culture, as well as for McCain.
Yeah, they're the ones who didn't graduate from UF. (Ok, ok we've had our share of knuckleheads too)
McCain should campaign in New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin and Colorado, not in Florida.
But Rasmussen has it tied. He is doing something wrong in his sampling...
More good news.
A good poll to with only 3% margin of error vs some recent one’s with 4.5%.
I really think McCain is going to win Fl,Ohio,Pa...Pa being the biggest stretch, but very doable with Palin on the ticket and Obama with huge negatives up there...I think Michigan will come right down to the wire.
269 vs 269 EV: Obama would win. For this reason we need at least one more vote.
This thing is going to be in the bag by October. That’s when Sarah can get out and start working the close Senate and House races.
“McCain should campaign in New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin and Colorado...”
I’d add NM to that list. If the GOP can keep illegals out of the voting booth, McCain has a fairly good chance there.
http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dashboard
This a great state by state map with data provided by realclearpolitics.com. They show WV, SD, WY and Idaho without any available state polling. Well all of those states will go to McCain. OH will go to McCain. VA will go to McCain. CO will go to McCain and I'm 100% sure of that. The only time Democrats do well in CO is if they run as a moderate leaning conservative.
Assuming FL stays in the McCain camp (and assuming something unearthly weird doesn't happen like Texas going Obama)things favor McCain.
If Obama loses either MI or PA the game is over. The election could, and probably will be decided by the time the polls close in the Great Plains.
I hope the RINO’s in Congress are watching what a good healthy dose of CONSERVATISM will do for their campaign.
Maine has a split elector system. One likely will vote R.
Go and watch blue hairs drive in West Palm. Go to a boat ramp and watch stupids launch boats for a real laugh.
Lots to laugh at here.
You would think Florida’s demographics would fit McCain perfectly.
But he cant just assume it will go to him. He still has some work to do there. And he’s going to be in Florida early next week, I believe.
Obama campaign has Hillary running around down there too.
Wait till after the debates. If the Obama is required to think quick and respond without prior planning he is going to look like the fool he is. There will be big swings in the polls.
Never happened, but that’s true. Biden is campaigning heavely there.
Women are essentially tied between McCain and Obama at 49-47 percent.
THAT polling will quickly change....after today!!
So far watching McCain has chosen to not even speak about the pig nad lipstick quotes of Obama. I just love that man. What class and dignity!!!
Women are essentially tied between McCain and Obama at 49-47 percent.
THAT polling will quickly change....after today!!
So far watching McCain has chosen to not even speak about the pig and lipstick quotes of Obama. I just love that man. What class and dignity!!!
Could you go into more detail?
I think Colorado may be the deciding state this year.
If I recall correctly, Obama is slightly ahead in the most recent CO polls.
Could you cite more evidence why you believe Colorado will go to McCain?
True, but a tie would give Obama the Presidency.
How do you come up with “the 1” winning in a tie??
No, Nv or Nh will be the deciding state.
If McCain can get Michigan (trailing by 1 point) or PA (trailing by 2 pts), then Colorado and Nevada would not matter.
The 12th Amendment of the Constitution states that in the case of no majority in the electoral college, the vote for President goes to the House of Representatives, each state receiving only one vote, and similarly a separate vote will be cast for the Vice-Presidency. This means that the party tickets could be broken up, and the representatives will select the party leadership.
So far, state polls (excepting Rasmussen’s) are more encouraging than the Rasmussen national poll. I am beginning to wonder if Rasmussen isn’t the outlier.
Yes, but Maine and Nebraska are not winner-take-all states. I think they award two EV to the popular vote winner statewide, and then 1 EV to the winner of each congressional district.
Rasmussen's last poll was taken right as Florida residents were getting ready for Hurricane Ike.
I wouldn’t care if McCain was 10 pts ahead nationally,
I want to go “Nebraska Cornhuskers” on the dhimmirats - run up the score, humiliate the left.
If you want an idea of how conservative Colorado is at it's core all you need to do is remember that Tom Tancredo has been consistently reelected by huge margins, 59% to 40% last time, in his home district (and I'm no fan of Tancredo).
Last of all I believe residents of Colorado will see a kindred spirit in Sarah Palin. A woman who hunts and fishes and who's husband is a snowmobile (snowmachine) champ is bound to appeal to the pro-conservation moderates in CO.
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