Posted on 09/09/2008 11:22:11 PM PDT by jokyfo
BIDEN.VP.WITHDRAWN
Last Trade : 5.0 0.8
I know nothing about betting, so can some fellow FReeper help me out with what this means?
This needs to be viraled!
It's Intrade speak for Here Comes Hillary!
or is Biden gets sick again.
if
This is wishful thinking, just like the DUers last night who were expecting “big news” today that would knock McCain and/or Palin out of the race. it will be Obama-Biden vs McCain-Palin and it will go down to the wire, just like the last two elections. The country is divided, and it frankly wouldn’t matter that much who the two parties put on their respective tickets.
Odds that Palin withdraws: 4.7%.
Odds that Biden withdraws: 5%
too funny.
Intrade should put up a “President Palin” odds chart, just in case McCain keels over before Jan, 2009. It would drive the Democrats crazy.
Ya, Biden gets very ill when he thinks about debating Gov. Palin.
There have already been two threads on this topic last week, but since the withdraw quote has been less than 10% no one is particularly interested.
Now, that WOULD be funny! Can you just imagine the looks on the faces at Obama HQ?
The higher the odds, the more likely it is to happen? Or vice versa? Sorry; I’m still baffled.
If he changes his ticket now it would be a joke.
It's not just here. The guys I work with were even talking about it
I just can't imagine a winning ticket with a VP choice so poor that people are even discussing whether the Presidential candidate would have a better chance if his running mate left the race.
One thing the Obama campaign can thank their lucky stars for is that all the media focus on Sarah Palin is temporarily concealing how foul a pick Joe Biden is. That's got to be why Obama was the one to sling mud at Palin. If Joe came out with both barrels against Palin this week, he'd have single-handedly ruined their chances.
Thank you. That’s very helpful.
Too late in the game. It would just show further weakness making things even worse for “The One”.
Biden gets to go down with the Obama ship.
It sure worked in New Jersey in 2002, when Lautenberg replaced Toricelli on the democrat ticket.
Please let me know if you plan on “dumping” biden shares - I’ll gladly take your money.
Biden isn’t afraid of Palin
CAMPAIGN ‘08 | Ready to pin her down in debate
September 10, 2008
BY ABDON M. PALLASCH Political Reporter apallasch@suntimes.com
Democratic vice-presidential nominee Joe Biden assured a crowd of donors in Lincoln Park Tuesday night that he would handle himself just fine in his debate with Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.
Democratic Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm has even agreed to spend several days with him as Palin’s stand-in for him to practice, he said. But he said “we’ll see” whether he takes her up on her offer.
He’s not aiming to take any cheap shots, he said.
“Folks, look, I know what she’s going to try to do: she’s going to try to make it as personal as she can. She’s going to take a lot of straight lefts and jabs at me. She’s going to try to get me to respond. She’s going to try to get me to respond in a personal way,” Biden said. “That’s not my style. I’m not going to do it.”
Biden told the heavy-hitter donors in backyards of Barbara Goodman Manilow and Steve Koch that he doesn’t care about the passing controversies like whether Palin sold her predecessor’s plane or not or whether or when she supported or opposed the “Bridge to Nowhere” in Alaska.
“What I care about is: What in God’s name is she going to do — along with John McCain — about the thousands of people who don’t have health care?” Biden asked. He’ll ask her about “The superhighway of terror between Pakistan and Afghanistan where my helicopter was forced down...John McCain wants to know where Bin Ladin and the gates of Hell are? I can tell him where. That’s where Al Quaida is. That’s where Bin Ladin is. It’s not in the country of Iraq.”
Four of the six questions Biden fielded Tuesday night were from donors worried about Palin’s popularity which has boosted the Republican ticket’s poll numbers over the Democrats. Biden urged the donors to “have patience” and Palin’s balloon would return to Earth once he or the press forced her to talk about who she would appoint to the Supreme Court or her views on global warming. He told them not to worry about a poll that showed white women defecting from Barack Obama to John McCain because of Palin.
“The press is exaggerating how white women are all of a sudden for Sarah Palin,” Biden said. “We still have more women voting for Barack Obama than for John McCain...Part of the problem is in white suburbia, as well as...among ethnic groups, among, particularly Jews and Catholics, there is a lack of ease about Barack. They don’t know him. One of my major jobs is to go out and talk about what I know — they know me — talk about who I am, why I support Barack.”
Part of Biden’s job Tuesday night was to make nice to the campaign’s most generous donors, who they now have to convince to give just as much for the general election as they did for the primary.
“We’re like poor relatives,” Biden conceded. “We keep showing up.”
Introducing Biden, John Levi thanked Biden for confirming his father, Edward Levi as former President Gerald Ford’s Attorney General early in Biden’s long senate career. Then, Levi added, speaking to the donors: “For the past 20 months, many of you have been digging in your wallets far deeper than you expected ... and now you’re going to do it again, we need your help now more than ever.”
Manilow said she saw the candidates‚ choice of vice-presidents as metaphors for their style.
“One took his time, picked someone he knew, whose ideology he respected...someone who is a great statesman,” Manilow said. “The other chose someone he had met once for political gain.”
Biden defended Palin against commentators who made an issue of her daughter’s pregnancy and who argued that she should stay home with her children instead of running for vice-president.
“All it did was generate overwhelming sympathy (for Palin) and quite frankly it offended me,” that anyone even raised the issues, he said. “Tell that to my wife. Tell that to a modern woman.”
http://www.suntimes.com/news/politics/obama/1154564,CST-NWS-biden10.article#
Should I go on with the 'credibility?'
Now, watch as all the Intrade gurus and defenders attack me for calling it what it is, a sham.
‘fraid you misunderstood my post. I said it should be viraled,which means we should spread it around the internet to shake up the Dummies.
Intrade’s a joke, all of those “prediction market” scams are.
Gotcha on the “viral” front - the dims got wire service on the Palin proposition on Intrade, as proof that folks were sure that she was set to go.
If you want to have some real fun, you can tweak the graph and move the market from 4.0 (25-to-1 odds) to 8.9 (11-to-1) by putting just under $200 into the “Biden to be withdrawn” proposition market.
Give me $1,170 and two trading accounts and I can push the propostion to 50/50 in the market graph. Low volume prediction markets can be tweaked just that easily. Push $1,200 into the market, run some screencaps and a press release and voila! you have a media story — “Widespread speculation that Biden will be Withdrawn.” You can easily get 1,000 or more web pages to run with it through an online news service.
$2,000 tops to push the story very far and wide.
The problem with some of the intrade markets is the volume. Too little data to give an accurate measure of sentiment. If more folks were playing, the accuracy should go up — see my previous post for an example of how I can make a Biden withdrawal look like a 50/50 proposition.
The key is just having the money to buy out the outstanding orders and then executing an “insider” order at whatever market price you set.
But any of you listening to Glenn Beck today?
Barry is meeting one on one with Bill Clinton in Harlem tomorrow and is canceling all campaign stops for that day.
Will he boot Biden and supplant him with Hill?
Is he their to kiss the "Don's" ring?
interesting.....
20/20 ran a piece about a couple who had “made 100’s of thousands of dollars” on McCain nomination positions on Intrade. I took it as a couple who had positions and paper gains but no liquidity trying to push others into “easy money” and the McCain market so that they could hedge their bets by selling off a portion of their holdings.
We’ve been discussing this for several days on various Palin threads, thanks for posting this as its own thread.
Yesterday I used some of the data from that contract in an analysis. With today’s results (McCain drawing even &/or passing Obama on Intrade), there’s no longer free money on the table.
Trying to Quantify Liberal Bias at Intrade
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-backroom/2078429/posts
Maybe this will give the contract a boost.
Biden: Hillary might have been better VP pick
CNN ^ | 9/10/08 | staff
Posted on Wednesday, September 10, 2008 2:12:34 PM by pissant
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2079361/posts
I recall the Eagleton precedent but not the procedure for replacement. Would the party need to revote in some fashion?
bttt
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.