Posted on 08/30/2008 8:02:20 PM PDT by charles m
Brash McCain pick of AK Gov. Palin neutralizes historic Obama speech, stunts the Dems' convention bounce
UTICA, New York - Republican John McCain's surprise announcement Friday of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate - some 16 hours after Democrat Barack Obama's historic speech accepting his party’s presidential nomination - has possibly stunted any Obama convention bump, the latest Zogby Interactive flash poll of the race shows. Data from this poll is available here
The latest nationwide survey, begun Friday afternoon after the McCain announcement of Palin as running mate and completed mid-afternoon today, shows McCain/Palin at 47%, compared to 45% support for Obama/Biden.
In other words, the race is a dead heat.
The interactive online Zogby survey shows that both Obama and McCain have solidified the support among their own parties - Obama won 86% support of Democrats and McCain 89% of Republicans in a two-way head-to-head poll question not including the running mates. When Biden and Palin are added to the mix, Obama's Democratic support remains at 86%, while McCain's increases to 92%.
After the McCain "Veep" announcement on Friday, Palin was almost immediately hailed as a strong conservative, and those voters have rallied to the GOP ticket, the survey shows. Republicans gather in St. Paul, Minnesota this week to officially nominate McCain and Palin as their presidential ticket.
(Excerpt) Read more at zogby.com ...
On Drudge now
Interesting comparison of Palin to Biden, showing more voters think she will help the ticket then when the same question was asked a week or so ago for the dem ticket.
Also of interest, Barr has a pretty strong showing, would love to see him included in the Debates, would love to see him drive McCain to the right:
The Four-way Horserace
Total
Dems
GOPers
Indies
Barr
5%
2%
4%
11%
But it’s good to use to take the wind out of Obama’s hype. Hype fuels more hype.
Is it just me or do I love the way the ticket’s names look:
McCain/Palin 47%
Obama/Biden 45%
McCain/Palin looks so much more presidential than Obama/Biden.
Barr was never a factor against McCain.
Now he’s even less a factor.
No one in American really wants to hear him now.
This one looks a bit better:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10
If the race stays close, whoever wins Colorado is the next President.
I think McCain might pull off PA too. Scanton boy isn’t really flying too well up there.
At least the third time this has been posted
McCain and Palin will be in Colorado next week.
Nadar and Barr together aren't going to exceed 2%, total. Remember that Anderson in 1980 was AT 21% before the first debate, which was just Anderson and Reagan. Carter sat out that debate, gambling that Anderson would fade. Anderson did fade, was not invited to the second and final Presidential debate, and drew only 5% in the election. (And Anderson was on all 51 ballots. I know, because I designed his legal strategy.)
Nadar and Barr will NOT be invited to the Presidential Debates. Their support numbers will drop like a brick in a well. They will have no effect on the outcome.
Congressman Billybob
Tenth in the ten-part series, "The Owner's Manual (Part 10) -- The Remaining Amendments"
Wow — McCain ahead on a Zogby poll??
A. This Zogby poll is shocking. Good news, but also shocking.
B. The GOP pretty much always does better in the electoral college than their national polling numbers suggest. The main reason is because they clean up in the EV rich Southern states. If McCain wins the national vote (still far from a given at this point), there is about 99.99% certainty that he will be the next POTUS.
C. The map you site is misleading because there are a number of states that McCain is within a swing of a point or two of taking from the Obama column. He doesn't even need all of them to hit 270.
Bottom line is McCain still has quite a bit of work to do, but he is very much within striking distance of taking the whole thing.
I’m in the Scranton area. I know a nice old lady who is a Democrat through and through and is a bit of big shot politically. She told me she cannot get anyone to vote for Obama. This was before Biden, however. But Scranton is still very Catholic and I don’t think a pro-abortion guy who left town decades ago will help him much.
heh-heh!
Historically a black candidate for office has had to have something like a ten or fifteen percent lead in polls to win. Doesn’t sound like Obama’s doing that...
the 2 most reliable polls right now are Gallup- H up by 8, and Rasmussen, H up by 4... Best guess is H was up by 5 on the semi-avg of the 2, before Palin
Agree with you, the online Zogby poll is pure BS, McCain’s lead notwithstanding. These types of polls have no history of any accuracy or even correlation with election results. While gratifying, I would wait for a traditional poll to show new numnbers.
Barr included in the debates...oh, please!
These look a little better
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10
And from the Bush/Kerry race four years ago today.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Aug30.html
LOL, this one from AOL is even better!!!!!!
http://news.aol.com/political-machine/2007/12/21/straw-poll-dec-21-jan-4/?ncid=NWS00010000000001
8/23-8/25....PA
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=53623918-86bc-4c32-a746-60c4a128cfc3
That AOL poll is even more worthless than this silly Zogby poll
Folks- any poll done before the conventions are now useless. Absolutely worthless
yeah, it’s worthless... thats why I gave it a big LOL
Except our side shouldn't be in Bolshevik red.
look on the bright side, it could be pink... =oD
perhaps, but I do not know a single person who changed their mind because of the convention. Now because of Sarah, well yes indeed:)
Dead cat bounce for Obama! But I wouldn’t put it past Zogby to make Obama look like the come back kid...
There’s no doubt Hussein got a bounce of about 5-6 points... At or just above average... They started at exactly even
The AOL poll isn’t a scientific poll, and has always favored Republicans. In 2004 Bush won 48 states in the AOL poll. It’s nice that McCain is doing even better, but I’m not sure that it really means anything.
Barr is more likely to drive McCain to the left on some important issues than to the right. If he drives him anywhere, which I hope not, that is.
The overall margin of error in this poll is 2.2% it is an online panel, not like AOL which is an open online survey
it is a invited panel which is more similar to a phone poll w/o the Caller ID problem.
.... from Zogby about methodology
Zogby International conducted an online survey of [2020 Likely Voters].
A sampling of Zogby International’s online panel, which is representative of the adult population of the US, was invited to participate. Slight weights were added region, party, age, race, religion, gender, education to more accurately reflect the population. The margin of error is +/- 2.2 percentage points. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.
If you change the New Hampshire vote in that second map from Obama to McCain (which could easily happen) it ends in a 269 tie for each. Talk about a nightmare. The House of Representatives would then choose the next President.
Drive McCain to the right? As far as politics is concerned, that does not make much sense. McCain is not going to promise to become something he has never been and it would seem pandering and inauthentic.
Please thing these things through. We are not talking politics to personally please you, but politics to win the election.
This is a Zogby Interactive poll. These are notoriously unreliable. For example, a previous one showed Obama winning in Arizona.
This poll is an online interactive poll. Why is this a reason to pop corks? Never mind the question. Symbolism over substance works here too.
Gore won by about half a million votes.
Actually, PA-10.
The question I like the best is,” are you a conservative, ultra conservative etc?, I always answer “ultra”
He asks one's age, address, nationality,and many questions about my preference on different subjects.
At the end there is a place to comment about the poll.I wish I knew how to let some of you know how to get on his list.
My answers were not included in the results just posted because if I read it right it was up to noon today.
I am that 85 years old widow, born again Christian, ultra conservative and a political junkie since I was 17. Couldn't even vote for 4 years. I am still hanging in there and am anxious to vote this Nov.
As a matter of fact I emailed both Hannity and Rush that Gore won by that amount in two Cities and I wanted someone to ask “Which City elected him?”
Some times we make statements without looking up the facts.
Lighten up, the AOL map posted was an obvious joke.
McCain is down by 10 points in PA?
How sad.
“McCain is down by 10 points in PA? How sad.”
The people I know from PA think McCain will carry the state. If so, he will surely be elected President.
“The people I know from PA think McCain will carry the state. If so, he will surely be elected President.”
I’m worried about the Philly vote machine.
BTW..who do you know in PA, regular people or are you talking about campaign workers?
Seek and Find...Are you a troll? I do the same “divide and conquer” over at DU. Try to sound like one thing but really trying to quietly dishearten the base...I am on to you!
Putting aside the question of the reliability of polls, it's always better to be up rather than down.
Yeah, mostly because of the Obama part.
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