Posted on 08/30/2008 12:59:17 PM PDT by AreaMan
The selection of a running mate is among the most consequential, most defining decisions a presidential nominee can make. John McCain’s pick of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin says a lot about his decison-making — and some of it is downright breathtaking.
We knew McCain is a politician who relishes improvisation, and likes to go with his gut. But it is remarkable that someone who has repeatedly emphasized experience in this campaign named an inexperienced governor he barely knew to be his No. 2. Whatever you think of the pick, here are six things it tells us about McCain:
1. He’s desperate. Let’s stop pretending this race is as close as national polling suggests. The truth is McCain is essentially tied or trailing in every swing state that matters — and too close for comfort in several states like Indiana and Montana the GOP usually wins pretty easily in presidential races. On top of that, voters seem very inclined to elect Democrats in general this election — and very sick of the Bush years.
McCain could easily lose in an electoral landslide. That is the private view of Democrats and Republicans alike.
McCain’s pick shows he is not pretending. Politicians, even “mavericks” like McCain, play it safe when they think they are winning — or see an easy path to winning. They roll the dice only when they know that the risks of conventionality are greater than the risks of boldness.
The Republican brand is a mess. McCain is reasonably concluding that it won’t work to replicate George W. Bush and Karl Rove’s electoral formula, based around national security and a big advantage among Y chromosomes, from 2004.
“She’s a fresh new face in a party that’s dying for one — the antidote to boring white men,” a campaign official said.
Palin, the logic goes, will prompt voters to give him a second look — especially women who have watched Democrats reject Hillary Rodham Clinton for Barack Obama.
The risks of a backlash from choosing someone so unknown and so untested are obvious. In one swift stroke, McCain demolished what had been one of his main arguments against Obama.
“I think we’re going to have to examine our tag line, ‘dangerously inexperienced,’” a top McCain official said wryly.
2. He’s willing to gamble — bigtime. Let’s face it: This is not the pick of a self-confident candidate. It is the political equivalent of a trick play or, as some Democrats called it, a Hail Mary pass in football. McCain talks incessantly about experience, and then goes and selects a woman he hardly knows, who hardly knows foreign policy and who can hardly be seen as instantly ready for the presidency.
He is smart enough to know it could work, at least politically. Many Republicans see this pick as a brilliant stroke because it will be difficult for Democrats to run hard against a woman in the wake of the Hillary Clinton drama. Will this push those disgruntled Hillary voters McCain’s way? Perhaps. But this is hardly aimed at them: It is directed at the huge bloc of independent women — especially those who do not see abortion as a make-or-break issue — who could decide this election.
McCain has a history of taking dares. Palin represents his biggest one yet.
3. He’s worried about the political implications of his age. Like a driver overcorrecting out of a swerve, he chooses someone who is two years younger than the youthful Obama, and 28 years younger than he is. (He turned 72 Friday.) The father-daughter comparison was inevitable when they appeared next to each other.
4. He’s not worried about the actuarial implications of his age. He thinks he’s in fine fettle, and Palin wouldn’t be performing the only constitutional duty of a vice president, which is standing by in case a president dies or becomes incapacitated. If he was really concerned about an inexperienced person sitting in the Oval Office we would be writing about vice presidential nominee Mitt Romney or Tom Ridge or Condoleezza Rice.
There is no plausible way that McCain could say that he picked Palin, who was only elected governor in 2006 and whose most extended public service was as mayor of Wasilla, Alaska (population 8,471), because she was ready to be president on Day One.
Nor can McCain argue that he was looking for someone he could trust as a close adviser. Most people know the staff at the local Starbucks better than McCain knows Palin. They met for the first time last February at a National Governors Association meeting in Washington. Then, they spoke again — by phone — on Sunday while she was at the Alaska state fair and he was at home in Arizona.
McCain has made a mockery out of his campaign's longtime contention that Barack Obama is too dangerously inexperienced to be commander in chief. Now, the Democratic ticket boasts 40 years of national experience (four years for Obama and 36 years for Joseph Biden of Delaware), while the Republican ticket has 26 (McCain’s four yeasr in the House and 22 in the Senate.)
The McCain campaign has made a calculation that most voters don’t really care about the national experience or credentials of a vice president, and that Palin’s ebullient personality and reputation as a refomer who took on cesspool politics in Alaska matters more.
5. He’s worried about his conservative base. If he had room to maneuver, there were lots of people McCain could have selected who would have represented a break from Washington politics as usual. Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman comes to mind (and it certainly came to McCain’s throughout the process). He had no such room. GOP stalwarts were furious over trial balloons about the possibility of choosing a supporter of abortion rights, including the possibility that he would reach out to his friend.
Palin is an ardent opponent of abortion who was previously scheduled to keynote the Republican National Coalition for Life's "Life of the Party" event in the Twin Cities this week.
“She’s really a perfect selection,” said Darla St. Martin, the Co-Director of the National Right to Life Committee. It is no secret McCain wanted to shake things up in this race — and he realized he was limited to a shake-up conservatives could stomach.
6. At the end of the day, McCain is still McCain. People may find him a refreshing maverick, or an erratic egotist. In either event, he marches to his own beat.
On the upside, his team did manage to play to the media’s love of drama, fanning speculation about his possible choices and maximizing coverage of the decision.
On the potential downside, the drama was evidently entirely genuine. The fact that McCain only spoke with Palin about the vice presidency for the first time on Sunday, and that he was seriously considering Lieberman until days ago, suggests just how hectic and improvisational his process was.
In the end, this selection gives him a chance to reclaim the mantle of a different kind of politician intent on changing Washington. He once had a legitimate claim to this: after all, he took on his own party over campaign finance reform and immigration. He jeopardized this claim in recent months by embracing ideas he once opposed (Bush tax cuts) and ideas that appeared politically motivated (gas tax holiday).
Spontaneity, with a touch of impulsiveness, is one of the traits that attract some of McCain’s admirers. Whether it’s a good calling card for a potential president will depend on the reaction in coming days to what looks for the moment like the most daring vice presidential selection in generations.
Mike Allen contributed to this report.
The analysis of Vandehei and Harris has the objectivity and neutrality of a carnival hawker singing the praises of the trash he is selling to unsuspecting dimwits.
Ahh the wiggle words..."extended public service"...which glosses over the governorship of Alaska.
Mayor of a town or governor of a State, it is still more executive experience than the Democrats' prez. candidate.
Full fledged ratfest. They are clearly worried. Otherwise they wouldn’t be unloading so hard right out of the gate.
Like Carville says, you want a VP that gets the other side upset.
Clearly the case here from the word go.
Viva the Palin family!
They’re projecting to beat the band.
I don’t know if I can forgive McCain for this. This must’ve been the action of desperation. He WAS doing very well on his own, and he had a slew of capable, qualified politicians to choose from (Romney is one). And I REALLY thought we needed someone with economics experience to run with McCain. Why go this way? I’m not sure what I’m going to do, now. I think there is more of a chance he could die in office than someone else, so it’s important that the VP be presidential material. I don’t see her as that at all. She was picked ‘cause she’s a woman, mainly.
Maybe I’ll get over it. I don’t know. I don’t think so. But I can’t vote for Obama. Maybe I should take a look at Barr. What to do, what to do.
You poor pitiful thing.
It only says one thing about McCain, he needs his base back, and he got it.
To paraphrase HRC, Obama is not ready to be pres on day one, and he’s at the head of the ticket.
What I don't understand is why you are wasting FR’s bandwidth.
What to do, what to do?
How about doing some research and learning that this successful business owner, this successful mayor, this successful Governor HAS economic experience. More importantly she has ADMINISTRATIVE experience which Obama doesn't have, Biden doesn't have and McCain doesn't have.
“Full fledged ratfest. They are clearly worried.”
Worried? The Dims are downright terrified!
Mark my words....you heard it here first! This was a mistake by McCain. As a moderate, I can tell you that Palin will ONLY appeal to the further right of the party. Some moderates may vote for the ticket, even with her on it, because of the alternative, but there is NO way that many Independents, who could vote either way, will vote for this ticket, now. Not with her on it. Where is the economic experience in this ticket? Nowhere. Where is the moderate maverick? Nowhere. His second banana is far from moderate. The Repubs NEED more than the base to vote for them this year. They may have lost it with this pick of VP (I mean...she wanted to take the fuzzy wuzzy Polar Bear off the endangered species list? How unappealing to moderates and Independents can you get?)
Maybe she’s got some moderate views we haven’t heard about yet. We’ll see. But I’m thinking....why didn’t he pick someone good for the economy. “It’s the economy, stupid.” Watch...you’ll see. No one’s gonna care that she’s a gun-totin’, tough-talkin’ mama from the wilds of Alaska, except some conservatives who were gonna vote for McCain, anyway.
“And I REALLY thought we needed someone with economics experience to run with McCain.”
Sarah Pail has far more economics experience than either Obambi or Biden. She ran her own company, was mayor (i.e., chief executive) of her town for many years, and is governor (again, chief executive) of natural resources rich Alaska. Obambi and Biden have ZERO executive experience, and the times they had their grubby hands on someone else’s money they frivolously pissed it away!
You sound like a Nader man.
You’re not electing a king and queen! You’re electing people with an ability to administer a nation and to delegate. If you want micromanagers then you elect guys like Carter the worst President in US history. Now where have the dem candidates administered on the scale of Palin? Right off the top Palin showed she was cut of the best cloth in her governship of Alaska. She is decisive and ideologically conservative. She appears to be the new generation of conservative females with guts which men have been lacking in the Republican Party.
We've seen the articles listing the results of McCain's selection of Palin as VP, the most noticeable being that it completely overshadowed BO. One point that hasn't been listed is that with the announcement BEFORE the RNC, all the ammo of the MSM will be out there and used up. When the American people see Palin in person -- and I expect her speech to have a higher rating than BO's acceptance -- they will realize that the MSN was a total misrepresentation. From that point McCain-Palin will gain more momentum.
Your tag line says it all.
“As a moderate,”
Thattttt’s all I need to know folks.
Look, TexasBud, You made your “point” in your first whining post. Making it again, in an ever greater drama queen style, only makes you look like an attention whore.
They may have lost it with this pick of VP (I mean...she wanted to take the fuzzy wuzzy Polar Bear off the endangered species list?
Both man made global warming and the idea of Polar Bears being endangered are a big crock of Pelosi.
You very smart!!!
Hey TB,
You mark my (and many others’) words:
Sarah Palin’s selection by John McCain was about as brilliant a pick as could be made. With one genius move, he has pulled his base back into the fold and stymied the Obamazombies. I have not been this excited about a Pubbie ticket since Ronaldus Maximus! I have not contributed a dime to any candidate since, but I did today and will continue to do so.
What the heck does “moderate” mean anyhooo? Do you just ‘moderate’ your way through life via compromise and concession? Any core beliefs that you’d actually put your life on the line for? I suspect that yours is moving ‘line in the sand’, no? Ya see TB, it’s the moderate approach over the years that has allowed the lines between R’s & D’s to become so blurred in practice. I much prefer the stark contrast...no questions about where one stands. That’s Palin’s appeal; and if you think McCain would get elected without the conservative Republican base, I’m not sure you understand (or care) how fractured the Pubbies have become. There really aren’t enough of y’all (that would be “moderates” and “independents”) in the Republican party to get it done on your own.
The implication that “moderates” and “independents” are are anything other than confused and conflicted (akin to saying you’re a social liberal, but a fiscal conservative—how exactly does that work?) is pure fantasy.
McCain/Palin in a landslide...bank it! Thank the conservative base on Nov. 5
“play it safe when they think they are winning”
One of the first things I heard a talking head say right after the announcement yesterday is that she’s the safe pick for him.
So, you’re a moderate. How exciting.
I am into nature and have watched nature documentaries and been involved with nature activities my entire life. I’ve seen and read enough to know that the polar bear is, indeed, in danger of becoming extinct. Anyone who doesn’t think so just isn’t aware of the facts...or has a monetary interest in “not believing it,” like Palin.
Most of middle America is moderate. I am one moderate that is no how going to vote for a ticket with that extremist on it. And I’m a woman who would love to see a conservative in the W.H. Palin is no conservative. She’s a far right evangelical extremist. She is not qualified to be President, also (we all know there’s a big risk in McCain’s health). No way. Yes, it was a bold move. But there are others who don’t want to teach creationism in school (only far right evangelicals think THAT is a good idea) that McCain could’ve picked. Like Kay Bailey Hutchison, and other younger up and comers (what about Bobby Jingal, if you want younger and almost no experience? He’s an exciting speaker with a fresh outlook for the next generation of conservatives...and he’s not an extremist as far as I know).
The base will be excited and go out and vote, I’m sure. Plus a few others. But that’s not enough to win. I’m going to look at Barr and see if he is a possibility (I don’t even know if he’ll be on the ticket in my state).
I like it. Subtle, very subtle.
And the years you have spent watching Star Trek and Star Wars qualifies you for a degree in Astrophysics.
I’ve seen and read enough to know that the polar bear is, indeed, in danger of becoming extinct. Anyone who doesn’t think so just isn’t aware of the facts...or has a monetary interest in “not believing it,” like Palin.
Then again, there are those who use false claims of endangered species to gain control. That's why many development projects have been halted to "protect the yellow-billed butt-whacker." NOTE - I shouldn't need a SARC Tag but I'm sure you'll accuse me of claiming the beast exists. Stop listening to the MSM emoting about animals and talk to some folks who live there.
And I’m a woman
I bet you're a 30 year old male who lives in his mother's basement and gets his kicks claiming to be a woman on line. Put down the pizza and get a job.
...who would love to see a conservative in the W.H. Palin is no conservative. She’s a far right evangelical extremist. She is not qualified to be President...
Were you one of those "conservatives" who cried when Kerry lost?
But there are others who don’t want to teach creationism in school (only far right evangelicals think THAT is a good idea)
I know Christians who are teachers. They teach that there are three theories of the origin of man: Evolution, Intelligent Design, and Creationism. They seem capable of being able to do this without running afoul of the School Board's official policy.
I condemn cruelty to animals. God made us stewards of His creation. However, we are given leave to use creation responsibly. Too many environmentalists worship creation rather than the Creator.
And some knuckleheads get their science data from the leftist dominated MSM.
Which is why I consider myself a conservationist and not an environmentalist. Environmentalists tend to be more political and extreme. My son is excited about applying for our zoo’s teen program next year. The zoo runs on full donations (no gov. money) and works on reintroducing endangered animals back to the wild.
Good luck to you and your son. I hope he learns some amazing things about God’s creation.
Personal attacks mean that you are at a loss, when up against logic and common sense. You might as well have said, “Oh, yeah...well, your mama wears army boots! Take that!”
No moderate or independent is going to vote for that extremist.
I don’t have a basement, and I am one of those middle aged women who considered voting for Hillary Clinton (but I decided against it). I am neither overweight, nor sitting in a basement. In fact, I have no basement (you yankees always seem to forget that).
I am a fiscal conservative that thinks the past 8 years of the evangelicals having a grip on the White House was a nightmare, and it’s time for that to be over. Along with that huge deficit.
Very well. I accept your surrender.
Well, here we are. A month, approximately, since I posted that I was disappointed in McCain’s pick of Palin as VP. About a month since I stated that I would no longer be voting for McCain, since I’m a moderate (fiscal conservative, social issues moderate).
You and others flamed me. Natch. You always do, when others disagree. You didn’t recognize the import of what I was saying. That I, not you, represented the swing voters that McCain needed to win. That Palin appealed to YOU, of course. But she did not, and would not, appeal to moderates.
So here we are. At a loss. Apparently millions of others thought about the Palin pick the way I did. Including very well connected and famous Republicans, who now either endorse Obama or openly diss McCain.
Next time maybe try to see things more objectively. It’s not enough that YOU think a candidate is great, when many others think she’s not...that she is unknowledgeable, an extremist, or a gimmick pick, or chosen for reasons other than qualifications. Had McCain trusted his instincts, he would’ve named Romney (I said that in my prior post....and it still is true. Think of it: If McCain had chosen Romney, he’d have a huge advantage; few people know more about the economy than Romney, and a lot of people would trust him on it) or Jindal.
And McCain would at least have a good shot at winning.
But don’t listen to me. Oh, no. Continue with your dreams. While the other candidate, who DID listen, wins.
Next up: 2012. President Jindal? Vice President Romney? Hmmmm. Sounds good.
I truly hope you are being sarcastic. Have you ever been up close and personal with Sarah Palin? How many people have you listened to that have met and spoken with her that have not been anti-McCain/Palin? I hear from the women that have met her and spoken with her that she is extremely bright and a quick learn. Are you comparing her with that mob of thieves in Washington that are supposed to be so brilliant? That is one of her saving graces...she is NOT one of them. She is NOT a graduate of the liberal elite colleges. She is NOT from a pseudo-intellectual group. She is a bright, intelligent woman who is more than willing to jump into an alligator pit and try to save this country from the socialists that want to CHANGE it. My Hillary Clinton Democrat sister and I were talking about Sarah....and agree....she is the ONLY thing in this election that simply makes us feel good!! To hell with these men....I am voting for the woman!!!! At least she is NOT ONE OF THEM!!!
1) 0bama is trying to prop up his lack of foreign policy experience with a guy who consistently gets it wrong on foreign policy.
2) He is a horrible judge of character, as further evidenced by his association with Communist Revolutionary Terrorists.
3) He is so dumb he thinks Senator Braindamage is smart.
4) He is so overconfident that he didn't consider forming a “unity” ticket with Hillary.
5) He is a Leftist hack; just like Senator Braindamage.
6) He knows the Leftist media will cover for his VP candidates history of plagiarism, and sweep under the rug any and all gaffes of epic proportions (FDR as POTUS and on TV in 29. Hezbollah out of Lebanon. His “tested” remarks. Etc, etc, ad nauseum).
Palin is the only reason I voted for McCain. She's not perfect, but she has more conservative credentials than McCain. The truth is, McCain is more interested in sucking up to the left than in honoring his own support base. Again, this is a fact. Ignore it if you choose. You can't change reality.
The left and the MSM hate Palin. They hate everything she stands for. They hate that she didn't abort her autistic son. They hate that she doesn't suck up to the liberal elite. They hate that she pays her own way instead of stiffing waitresses like Hillary did. As for her experience, she has much more experience than Biden.
Off topic, I spoke with some Obama supporters last week. They could not name Biden as Obama’s VP pick. They knew Palin was McCain's pick. Just like you, they're sheeple for the MSM.
Who are those "very well connected and famous Republicans, who now either endorse Obama or openly diss McCain?" Colin Powell? Scott MacClellon? They were never conservatives and were just barely Republicans.
Like a lot of my fellow Airman, I just voted using the SF 186A. You see, none of us received our absentee ballots. I voted for McCain. Palin is the reason I chose McCain, instead of writing in Duncan Hunter.
If McCain loses it will have more to do with those counting the votes and “stuffing the ballot boxes” than the true number of votes cast. Although your MSM masters haven't really talked about it (but have tried to “talk around it), ACORN and others like them, are finally being exposed.
Now run along and watch Oprah.
I have one more question. Did you agree with the MSM when they said that George W. Bush's selection of Dick Cheney guaranteed Kerry would win the 2004 election?
If Hillary were "one Heart Beat" away from the presidency would you want that heart beat to be yours?
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