Posted on 08/28/2008 10:18:30 AM PDT by comebacknewt
The latest three-day Gallup Poll Daily tracking average (Aug. 25-27) is directly coincident with the first three days of the Democratic National Convention in Denver, and is no doubt beginning to reflect the typical convention "bounce" that Gallup has observed in most party conventions in recent decades.
There is a lag of sorts involved in the daily tracking; interviewing is conducted in most parts of the country before that evening's high-focus speeches have taken place. Thus, the current three-day average would reflect any impact of Monday night's speech by Michelle Obama, and Tuesday night's speech by Hillary Clinton, but would not completely reflect Wednesday night's lineup of speakers, such as John Kerry, former President Bill Clinton, and vice presidential nominee Joe Biden, nor the appearance on stage at the end of the evening by Barack Obama himself.
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
Lets hope it disappears just as quickly as it showed up.
I predict a 12 pt bounce.
45 to 48 is “on pace” to a double digit bounce????
On an up note from Gallup:
August 28, 2008
“Obama Still Lags McCain as Leader, Commander in Chief”
John McCain has an edge over Barack Obama in the public’s eyes as a strong and decisive leader, and while 80% of Americans say McCain is able to handle the job of commander in chief, only 53% say this about Obama.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/election2008.aspx
I’m hoping the bounce is short because the Republican convention comes so soon after the Democrats. Usually the conventions are about a month apart.
Obama is rolling the dice tonight with his Greek temple speech. If the temple becomes a joke, he might not get much bounce at all. Stay tuned.
On Hannity's radio show either Zogby or Rasmussen yesterday said - although their polls really weren't reflecting it yet - that they expected Obama to get a 6-7 point bounce out of this convention.
Kerry got his bounce in 2004 ... and went on to lose.
Barry will get his bounce too. No reason to panic.
Carry on.
Of course there is a bounce. Every candidate has a bounce in polls during his convention.
Well, now we know what the lead stories, the news crawls, the web pages, etc., will all be featuring:
Obama LEADS by 6 pts. Obama SURGE. Voters Prefer Obama.
It amazing how gullible people are
Kerry’s bounce was only 4pts though he was up 49% to 42% (Newsweek data) following the convention.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/108037/Candidate-Support-Region.aspx
I have heard that estimates prior to the convention, and in most conventions, candidates get a 10-15% jump. What happened to Obama’s jump? I believe he is on a downward spiral now and it will get worse.
“I’ve been worried Obama might get a double digit bump out of the convention. Gallup shows him on pace for one.”
One? They were tied going in, how is this bounce only “one?” If it is, what kind of wackadoo math are you using?
My recollection is that the pollsters are saying that conventions produce less of a bounce than they used to. The reason is that fewer people watch the things and the electorate is a little less elastic than in the past. A 5 to 6 point bounce is not a big problem.
Keep up the good fight, folks. Never give up.
How can he be on a downward spiral if his support has increased?
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