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U.S. Knew Georgia Trouble Was Coming, But Couldn't Stop It (Good Backgrounder)
McClatchy ^ | Monday, August 11, 2008 | Jonathan S. Landay and Nancy A. Youssef

Posted on 08/11/2008 7:17:08 PM PDT by kristinn

Bush administration officials, worried by what they saw as a series of provocative Russian actions, repeatedly warned Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili to avoid giving the Kremlin an excuse to intervene in his country militarily, U.S. officials said Monday.

But in the end, the warnings failed to stop the Georgian president — a Bush favorite — from launching an attack last week that on Monday seemed likely to end not only in his country’s military humiliation but complete occupation by Russian forces.

SNIP

Pentagon officials said that despite having 130 trainers assigned to Georgia, they had no advance notice of Georgia’s sudden move last Thursday to send thousands of Georgian troops into South Ossetia to capture that province's capital, Tskhinvali.

Not only did the U.S. troops working alongside their Georgian counterparts not see any signs of an impending invasion, Georgian officials did not notify the U.S. military before the incursion, a senior U.S. defense official told McClatchy.

SNIP

At the same time, U.S. officials said that they believed they had an understanding with Russia that any response to Georgian military action would be limited to South Ossetia.

"We knew they were going to go crack heads. We told them again and again not to do this," the State Department official said. "We thought we had an understanding with the Russians that any response would be South Ossetia-focused. Clearly it's not."

SNIP

The delicacy of the situation was underscored by the U.S. decision to leave its military advisers in Georgia, though, with Georgia's troops no longer in Iraq, there was little for the advisers to do.

"While their utility in country may be very limited, removing them might inadvertently signal to the world that we are abandoning our ally, which we most certainly are not," said a senior U.S. military official.

(Excerpt) Read more at mcclatchydc.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; Russia
KEYWORDS: georgia; ossetia; southossetia; statedept; usmilitary; war
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"We knew they were going to go crack heads. We told them again and again not to do this," the State Department official said. "We thought we had an understanding with the Russians that any response would be South Ossetia-focused. Clearly it's not."

So the State Department sold out Georgia. No wonder Condi didn't break off her vacation.

1 posted on 08/11/2008 7:17:08 PM PDT by kristinn
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To: Jeff Head; DoughtyOne

FYI.


2 posted on 08/11/2008 7:17:52 PM PDT by kristinn
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To: kristinn

S. Ossettia fought a war to be free of Georgia, and then voted 90% to allign with russia.

Why did Georgia attack them?


3 posted on 08/11/2008 7:21:00 PM PDT by patton (cuiquam in sua arte credendum)
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To: kristinn
Hmm, kind of like April Glaspie?

Cheers!

4 posted on 08/11/2008 7:22:13 PM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: kristinn
"But in the end, the warnings failed to stop the Georgian president — a Bush favorite — from launching an attack last week that on Monday seemed likely to end not only in his country’s military humiliation but complete occupation by Russian forces. "
5 posted on 08/11/2008 7:22:26 PM PDT by patton (cuiquam in sua arte credendum)
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To: patton

I think it is because Ossettia is part of Georgia.


6 posted on 08/11/2008 7:23:36 PM PDT by lonestar67 (Its time to withdraw from the War on Bush-- your side is hopelessly lost in a quagmire.)
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To: kristinn

It would rather be like the US Virgin Islands launching an attack on the US.


7 posted on 08/11/2008 7:23:51 PM PDT by patton (cuiquam in sua arte credendum)
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To: kristinn

Cover story after the fact meant to excuse American inaction.


8 posted on 08/11/2008 7:24:13 PM PDT by VaBthang4 ("He Who Watches Over Israel Will Neither Slumber Nor Sleep")
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To: lonestar67

Since Stalin declared it so? Nonsense.


9 posted on 08/11/2008 7:24:40 PM PDT by patton (cuiquam in sua arte credendum)
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To: kristinn

I don’t see how you come to that conclusion based on the article...


10 posted on 08/11/2008 7:24:50 PM PDT by BamaBlue
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To: kristinn

Well now, CYA is now in full effect....I despise excuses...


11 posted on 08/11/2008 7:24:54 PM PDT by padre35 (Conservative in Exile/ Romans 10.10/Eze 11.2)
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To: patton
"Why did Georgia attack them?"

Because they were provoked.

12 posted on 08/11/2008 7:25:08 PM PDT by Brian S. Fitzgerald
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To: kristinn

This one sounds increasingly like a case of having rubbed Russia’s nose in it one too many times, starting with Kosovo. Does Foggy Bottom ever have earthquakes?


13 posted on 08/11/2008 7:25:53 PM PDT by wendy1946
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To: VaBthang4

sounds about right CYA as usual.


14 posted on 08/11/2008 7:26:27 PM PDT by screaminsunshine
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To: Brian S. Fitzgerald

The Georgians were provoked by the Georgian attack on the Ossettiens?

Wait, you lost me.


15 posted on 08/11/2008 7:27:31 PM PDT by patton (cuiquam in sua arte credendum)
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To: patton

Well the new Stalin has a good apologist in you.

I am sure he appreciates the help,

You’ll have none of it from me.

I hope Georgia takes out as many Russian military personnel as possible. I hope Ossetia reaps what it has sown.

Ossetia was given considerable autonomy and yet it was not good enough becuase this entire affair was a fabrication of Russia’s energy imperialists.


16 posted on 08/11/2008 7:27:44 PM PDT by lonestar67 (Its time to withdraw from the War on Bush-- your side is hopelessly lost in a quagmire.)
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To: BamaBlue

The State Department gave the Russians the green light to intervene.


17 posted on 08/11/2008 7:28:42 PM PDT by kristinn
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To: kristinn

Knew it was coming???? Does anyone else see this as a failure of the CIA? Russia shouldn’t have been able to mobilize that many tanks/supplies/troops without setting off all kinds of alarms. This war was in the planning stage for months. Was the CIA sleeping?


18 posted on 08/11/2008 7:28:56 PM PDT by Drango (A liberal's compassion is limited only by the size of someone else's wallet.)
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To: lonestar67

Pardon, but what, exactly, did Ossetia sow?


19 posted on 08/11/2008 7:29:29 PM PDT by patton (cuiquam in sua arte credendum)
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To: patton
S. Ossettia fought a war to be free of Georgia, and then voted 90% to allign with russia.

Why did Georgia attack them?

Because Ossettia is in Georgia. So is Abkhazi. The Georgians didn't want their country chipped away by the Russians.

20 posted on 08/11/2008 7:30:12 PM PDT by Lijahsbubbe
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To: grey_whiskers

Yep. April Glaspie redux.


21 posted on 08/11/2008 7:30:17 PM PDT by kristinn
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To: kristinn
So the State Department sold out Georgia.

That's not the way I read it....it looks like the Georgians shot themselves in the foot just as Ohlmert did. It's not smart to pull a tigers tail.

Even if we can spare the assets, the nation has no heart to really fight for anything. Half the nation still wants to run away from a war we have won.

22 posted on 08/11/2008 7:30:17 PM PDT by A.Hun (Common sense is no longer common.)
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To: kristinn

I have also come to the conclusion that this little escapade of Putins may be of a greater danger. Georgia, being south of the caucus mountain range is the perfect staging area for several Armor division and more. When Iran announces it has nuclear weapons and or before someone decides to strike the heart of Iran, the Russians now have a straight shot into Turkey, Iraq and Iran.Folks, call me paranoid if you will, but, this could be the staging for an all out fight for oil in the mideast. Y’all might want to keep something close you can duck under.


23 posted on 08/11/2008 7:30:58 PM PDT by eastforker (Get-R-Done and then Bring-Em- Home)
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To: A.Hun

It looks like the Russians provoked an incident they planned to take advantage of.


24 posted on 08/11/2008 7:31:46 PM PDT by kristinn
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To: Lijahsbubbe

Since when is it in Georgia, Hmmm?

And so what? Do you believe in the right of self-determination? If the voted 90% not to be in Georgia, then they are not. Done.


25 posted on 08/11/2008 7:32:11 PM PDT by patton (cuiquam in sua arte credendum)
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To: patton
Since when is it in Georgia, Hmmm?

And so what? Do you believe in the right of self-determination? If the voted 90% not to be in Georgia, then they are not. Done.

Since they are both provinces of Georgia - hmmmm?

Do you believe in a country protecting its territory? Done.

26 posted on 08/11/2008 7:34:38 PM PDT by Lijahsbubbe
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To: patton
It would rather be like the US Virgin Islands launching an attack on the US.

The Mouse that Roared.

27 posted on 08/11/2008 7:34:48 PM PDT by Cementjungle
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To: kristinn

I appreciate the response but from the article I still don’t see it. I’ve read the article and believe the Georgian President may have believed he would get backing from the US if they were attacked but don’t see where the “State Department gave the Russians the green light to intervene.”

Not trying to be difficult here just trying to understand where you’re coming from...


28 posted on 08/11/2008 7:34:54 PM PDT by BamaBlue
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To: Drango
According the parts of the article that are not excerpted here, our intel was focused on the war on terror and we were not generally eyeing the Russians as we did in the Cold War. Also, Russia had dropped out of a security arrangement that required members to make monthly reports on troop movements.

That and our analysis was flawed once again.

29 posted on 08/11/2008 7:35:17 PM PDT by kristinn
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To: patton
Classic "who fired first" scenerio. Both sides armed and ready for action.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_South_Ossetia_(2008)

"...Beginning late on 1 August, intense fighting began between Georgian troops and paramilitary soldiers of South Ossetia, causing the deaths of six people and injuring twenty-one others. Each side accused the other of commencing the fighting.[29] On 3 August, the Russian government allowed South Ossetians to begin evacuation into Russia, which resulted in twenty bus-loads of refugees leaving the region on the first day.[46].."

30 posted on 08/11/2008 7:35:19 PM PDT by Brian S. Fitzgerald
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To: Brian S. Fitzgerald
http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=18871

Six Die in S.Ossetia Shootout

Civil Georgia, Tbilisi / 2 Aug.'08 / 09:54

Six people were reportedly killed and 22 injured in the worst violence in years in the South Ossetian conflict zone late on August 1 and overnight on August 2.

Both sides have accused each other of opening fire first.

Authorities in breakaway South Ossetia said that six people were killed and 15 injured after the Georgian side opened fire in the evening on August 1, followed by shelling of the capital Tskhinvali late on August 1 and overnight on August 2.

According to the Russian command of the peacekeeping forces in the conflict zone, one South Ossetian militiaman was killed by a sniper located in a Georgian police post close to the village of Prisi at about 6:17pm local time on August 1.

The Russian peacekeepers also reported that snipers, starting from about 9pm local time on August 1, killed at least three people in Tskhinvali. The Russian peacekeeping command also reported late on August 1 that Tskhinvali also came under mortar fire from the Georgian villages of Ergneti and Zemo Nikozi, which are close to the breakaway region’s capital.

The South Ossetian side said that shelling and shooting resumed overnight on August 2.

Authorities in Tskhinvali also said that a serviceman of the North Ossetian peacekeeping battalion was among the dead. The Joint Peacekeeping Forces in the conflict zone consists of Russian, Russia’s North Ossetian and Georgian battalions.

Mamuka Kurashvili, a Georgian Defense Ministry official in charge of overseeing peacekeeping operations, said that the Georgian side had opened fire in response to shelling of Georgian villages.

Six civilians and one Georgian policeman were injured as a result of shelling of the Georgian villages of Zemo Nikozi, Kvemo Nikozi, Nuli and Ergneti, the Georgian Interior Ministry said.

Kurashvili said that it was one of the most “outrageous” attacks carried out by the South Ossetian side.

He also said that the Georgian side suspected the Russian peacekeepers were also engaged in the shelling of the Georgian villages.

Eduard Kokoity, the South Ossetian leader, said late on August 1 that the Georgian side was conducting “a sniper war.”

“It is an attempt to engage us in a large-scale military conflict,” he said. “Ukraine and the United States are also responsible for this, because Ukraine has handed over to Georgia 40 sniper rifles and the United States – 120 sniper rifles… So far the South Ossetian side has refrained from any response, but we are not going to refrain any more.”

The latest violence is the most serious in the region since the skirmishes of August, 2004.

31 posted on 08/11/2008 7:37:54 PM PDT by Brian S. Fitzgerald
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To: patton
S. Ossettia fought a war to be free of Georgia, and then voted 90% to allign with russia. Why did Georgia attack them?

IMHO, Georgians believe that if the Russians gain a foothold south of the Caucusus Mountains, their country cannot survive. There is no Roki tunnel between Tskhinvali and Tblisi. If the Russian army can stage and deploy from South Ossetia, they can launch ground troops and mechanized infantry anyhwere.
32 posted on 08/11/2008 7:38:05 PM PDT by advance_copy (Stand for life or nothing at all)
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To: patton

If we had a vote today regarding our border states..how many would want to call our land Mexico? Would we just give it away? On second though...best not to answer that one, I guess.


33 posted on 08/11/2008 7:38:43 PM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: BamaBlue
Read the whole article, please, for what Georgia expected and didn't expect from us. It tracks with what other sources are reporting

The State Department thought they had a deal with the Russians that they would only 'knock heads' in South Ossetia. We weren't happy about it, but we would live with it. That's the green light.

34 posted on 08/11/2008 7:39:02 PM PDT by kristinn
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To: Lijahsbubbe

No, I do not. If a population votes to leave the union, then it is their right to do so.


35 posted on 08/11/2008 7:39:47 PM PDT by patton (cuiquam in sua arte credendum)
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To: patton

Ossetia and its Russian “peacekeepers” were engaged in hostile activities designed to bring about a pretense for a Russian attack.

Artillery from Ossetian separatists killed 10 Georgians. It is completely acceptable for the government of Georgia to subdue such activity— kinda like Israel can subdue Palestinian terrorists who dont agree with their sovereignty. Artillery from Ossetian separatists escalated this conflict and that fact will surely be discarded by the Russian imperialists.

There is little difference here than with the German moves on the Sudetenland. The poor germans trapped in Czechoslovakia. Only Hitler could free them

Russian and her apologists can shove it.

Critics of Russia are never more than a polonium poisoning away from finding out the price of truth.

Please tell me more sweet lies from the New Kremlin. I want to hear more.


36 posted on 08/11/2008 7:40:38 PM PDT by lonestar67 (Its time to withdraw from the War on Bush-- your side is hopelessly lost in a quagmire.)
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To: kristinn

Georgia attacked Osettia knowing there was a large Russian presence there to keep the Georgians out. According to most reports, the majority of Osettians(?) are Russian citizens.

This was a bad move at a bad time. Of course the Russians used it as an excuse to teach the Georgians (and all former possessions) a lesson. Yea, they surely set them up.

Apparently the White House warned the Georgians against it.


37 posted on 08/11/2008 7:40:50 PM PDT by A.Hun (Common sense is no longer common.)
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To: patton

You don’t believe a country has a right to protect their territory? Whew, okay then. ( p.s., I thought you were “done”)


38 posted on 08/11/2008 7:43:53 PM PDT by Lijahsbubbe
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To: kristinn

I really wonder how many of the apologists for Russia on this list were cheering for the Soviets during the cold war.

I do not understand the complete lack of empathy for the democratic government of Georgia. The brazen logic of “realism” that says because Russia is powerful— she is correct. Georgia “miscalculated.” What a complete line of bull.

I completely object and disagree.


39 posted on 08/11/2008 7:44:23 PM PDT by lonestar67 (Its time to withdraw from the War on Bush-- your side is hopelessly lost in a quagmire.)
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To: patton

“Do you believe in the right of self-determination?”
- - -
Tell that to the CSA circa 1861. (sarcasm)


40 posted on 08/11/2008 7:44:33 PM PDT by Repeal The 17th
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To: advance_copy

The Georgians attempted to take the Roki tunnel, and failed. Multiple Russian Armored divisions pouring through it are the direct - and predictible - result.


41 posted on 08/11/2008 7:47:18 PM PDT by patton (cuiquam in sua arte credendum)
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To: kristinn

I (fully expecting to get flamed) believe we have an ineffective even incompetent, Secretary of State.

I will not be sorry to see her go back to Stanford.


42 posted on 08/11/2008 7:48:02 PM PDT by SE Mom (Proud mom of an Iraq war combat vet)
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To: CindyDawg

As a Virginian, I believe a state has every right to leave the federation.


43 posted on 08/11/2008 7:48:36 PM PDT by patton (cuiquam in sua arte credendum)
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To: eastforker

You could be right about what Putin is planning. But, if he thinks it will be a cakewalk through Turkey, he’s in for a surprise. It would take the Russians 20 years, and cost them probably more lives than they have to sacrifice, to fight their way through Turkey. Nonetheless, that well could be what they are planning.


44 posted on 08/11/2008 7:48:43 PM PDT by advance_copy (Stand for life or nothing at all)
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To: patton

Mobilizing troups and equipment through a tunnel and maintaining supply lines through it, though you may be able to control both ends, is a hinderence that Russians will not have if they can base in S. Ossetia.


45 posted on 08/11/2008 7:53:19 PM PDT by advance_copy (Stand for life or nothing at all)
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To: kristinn
So the State Department sold out Georgia. No wonder Condi didn't break off her vacation.

Sounds like the Georgian President made a stupid decision.

Here is the first paragraph, the topic paragraph, in case you missed it.

"Bush administration officials, worried by what they saw as a series of provocative Russian actions, repeatedly warned Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili to avoid giving the Kremlin an excuse to intervene in his country militarily, U.S. officials said Monday."

Americans do not need to be committed to this part of the world. We have our own borders to defend. We should be doing to Mexico what the Russians do to Georgia. It sickens me that Mexican Army regulars routinely cross our borders and threaten our border patrol.

46 posted on 08/11/2008 7:53:59 PM PDT by LoneRangerMassachusetts
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To: Lijahsbubbe

I honestly believe that the territory goes with the people - If the majority of voters in PR decide to become an independant country, and vote that way, I will gladly support them. The US has NO right “to defend their territory”, by subjugating the people of PR.

Or Guam, or the US Virgin Islands, or VA, or GA, or SC, or...


47 posted on 08/11/2008 7:54:04 PM PDT by patton (cuiquam in sua arte credendum)
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To: advance_copy

Nope, just enough to keep Turkey busy while they flank down through Azerbaijan into Iran for backup .


48 posted on 08/11/2008 7:56:18 PM PDT by eastforker (Get-R-Done and then Bring-Em- Home)
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To: SE Mom
I (fully expecting to get flamed) believe we have an ineffective even incompetent, Secretary of State.

I heard Gaffney on Hewitt tonight say that Putin felt emboldened by the appeasement policies of Bush and Rice.

49 posted on 08/11/2008 7:56:23 PM PDT by Current Occupant (IF we can't drill our way out of this, then we will not survive as a NATION!!!!!)
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To: patton
I'm from Texas and I believe so too ..if notice has been given, disagreements can't be worked out and the vote represents the state. I question this 99% across the board though..that's all. To say, well Georgia should not be defending her borders because every one there claims ties to Russia is not reasonable imo.
50 posted on 08/11/2008 7:57:18 PM PDT by CindyDawg
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