A few of these would calm the Russians down a bit.
L
Posted on 08/11/2008 8:27:32 AM PDT by Freemeorkillme
Vice President Dick Cheney spoke to the Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili on Sunday afternoon. The exchange is reported by the AP as:
“The vice president expressed the United States’ solidarity with the Georgian people and their democratically elected government in the face of this threat to Georgia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Cheney’s press secretary, Lee Ann McBride, said. Cheney told Saakashvili “Russian aggression must not go unanswered, and that its continuation would have serious consequences for its relations with the United States, as well as the broader international community,” McBride said.
The key terms here are “Russian aggression” and “must not go unanswered”. Cheney obviously spoke privately to Saakashvili, but these phrases are meant for public consumption and read in the Kremlin.
Meanwhile the Washington Post reports that Russia is seeking the ouster of the Georgian President. “The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations suggested Sunday that Russia is seeking “regime change” in Georgia, after Russia’s foreign minister reportedly told Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on Sunday that Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili ‘must go.’ ” No significant forward movement by Russian forces was reported in the last 24 hours. Russian sources were signalling that 9,000 more “peacekeepers” and about 350 armored vehicles were being marshaled for deployment and “that for the past two nights, Russian cargo planes have been flying troops and armour into the Black Sea territory which, like South Ossetia, has often said it wants to be part of Russia.”
The Russian demand for the Georgian President’s head, coupled with the pause in tempo and reports of reinforcement may indicate that the leading forces have to regroup and resupply before resuming an offensive. Or they may signal that Russia has achieved all of its strategic objectives, and sated, is now moving to consolidate its gains. But no one knows for sure; and by maintaining ambiguity with regards to its intentions Moscow can retain the political as well as the military initiative into the foreseeable future. The Georgians and the West, being on the defensive, will always hope things have finally stopped and remain as passive as they dare for fear of provoking a further response.
But if the Georgian episode is to have any long term impact on the West, it should really manifest itself in a sharper strategic attitude towards Putin’s government and his likely successors. George Kennan’s great contribution was to frame America’s attitude towards the USSR in such a way that it could free itself from passivity and pursue a consistent strategic goal.
In the late 1940s, his writings inspired the Truman Doctrine and the U.S. foreign policy of “containing” the Soviet Union, thrusting him into a lifelong role as a leading authority on the Cold War. His “Long Telegram” from Moscow in 1946, and the subsequent 1947 article “The Sources of Soviet Conduct” argued that the Soviet regime was inherently expansionist and that its influence had to be “contained” in areas of vital strategic importance to the United States. These texts quickly emerged as foundational texts of the Cold War, expressing the Truman administration’s new anti-Soviet Union policy. Kennan also played a leading role in the development of definitive Cold War programs and institutions, most notably the Marshall Plan.
By adopting a strategic goal the United States liberated itself from the bondage of merely reacting to Stalin’s initiatives. In an implied sense, once possessed of a strategy Truman could embark on a long course of regime change in the Soviet Union, one that was to be achieved by allowing it to collapse upon itself. That would be as if an American diplomat could say, in response to Moscow’s demand for Saakashvili’s head, that maybe Putin’s should go too. Of course they would never say it. The question is whether the entire Georgian episode could ever have such an effect as to allow the thought to temporarily, and however fleetingly, cross a diplomat’s mind.
dla:
Darth Cheney is responsible for the introductory saber rattling. That is step one. If the UN security council condemns Putin’s actions, the US will follow with Step two.
Now I don’t think Putin will do a land grab, but I might be wrong. I don’t see what Russia has to gain and I can clearly see what they have to lose. And yes, the US Military can kick their Roosky butts in heart-beat, but we don’t have much to gain from it. Aug 10, 2008 - 7:52 pm
sarkis:
wrote this in the am to the previous ossetia thread, may be outdated but here – Mike Sylwester — an explanation without paranoid beliefs — which explanation? An explanation that is consistent, to me, with other facts we have seen in the region is that the Russians are continuing their policy of consolidating control over petroleum and natural gas production and delivery. The plans for pipelines (of Azeri oil and Turkmen gas) going through Georgia, not continuing to Russia but going instead via Turkey to Israel (and on to elsewhere) must be stopped, in Russian eyes. Russian imperialist propaganda is stronger than it has been in years, with press and blogs full of calls to smackdown Ukraine, Baltics (who know what’s up in this conflict and take Georgia’s side) and cut yankees down to size of course. The press is in adulation of the “gutsy moves of Medvedev”. Meanwhile, Gazprom is getting real close to Libya. Now the current Cheney’s remarks — who knows what chessgame goes on now, whether Cheney ‘ll make remarks for Georgian and other player consumption but without intent to follow through, and whether Russia is aware of this show, or whether it’s a bluff for russian consumption or what. Aug 10, 2008 - 9:10 pm
Konyok:
sarkis,
It appears that there is a Turkish frigate off the coast at Batumi, in Georgian waters. The Israelis had advisers in Georgia, but it sounds like they are being pulled out. Russia has singled Turkey, Israel and Ukraine out as supplying the Georgian “criminals” in their aggression. Aug 10, 2008 - 10:04 pm
Given Turkey’s recently agreed to supply Georgia with electricity, Konyok’s comment about the Turkish Frigate in Georgian waters sounds pretty alarming(and accurate?).
What say the Cold War minds of FR?
Please, no hysterical nutters on the thread.
The first thing to do is to get rolling on drilling our own OIL so we don’t have be sending 800 BILLION a year to people like these Russian jackasses to use for these “flexing their money muscle” ventures!
Let everyone be clear about this. Russia is not responding to any assault on peace keepers or protecting some minority group. This is a preplanned full scale invasion of a sovereign country. This is the least justified and most bald faced act of aggression since Libya tried to knock over Chad in 1987 for the uranium. Aug 10, 2008 - 10:01 pm
Ditto that assessment.
Assuming that we don’t want war with the USSR the most effective thing we could do is boycott Soviet oil and gas...which represents about 95% of their economy today.Doing so would cost us dearly but it would devastate them...particularly if it lasted for a while.
The backstory is that there is a southernmost area of Georgia, known as Ossetia. It is populated by Russians. This area broke away from the main part of Georgia and was left to be autonomous for a while. Then the Georgians wanted to bring them back into the fold, so to speak and began attacking Ossetia. Russia took exception to the armed action against Russians and responded BIG TIME.
Their response was justified, it was simply OVER THE TOP.
This is not a simple story and it would behoove everyone to get the entire story before taking sides.
Jamming it down the gills of that Pelosi bottom-feeder and the rest of the Rats is not only good for America, but has an accompanying level of personal satisfaction added. Keep up the revolt, Republicans! Keep up the pressure, FReepers!
Georgia, as a sovereign country, will effectively cease to exist. The Russians will prevail and the West will wring its collective hands and sing Kumbaya. Putin knows this. Goodbye, Georgia, we hardly knew ye................
Why should we care about Georgia? George Soros has pumped tens of millions into Georgia to put Sakashvilli into power. What Soros wants can’t be too good for America.
I almost resemble that remark, LOL!
I also agree with that assessment. Would it be hysterical nuttery to say that I expected this type of aggression on the part of Russia but I thought China would be in the lead (in reference to Taiwan). But then, with China in the world spotlight right now for the Olympics, Russia may just be chomping at the bit. Hopefully they won't bite off more than they can chew.
Why did
Soros do that? Is he Georgian or is he pro russian?
At first take I would be inclined to side against the anti-Russian Soros/AEI alliance, but they make a point when it comes to oil supply and allowing the Russian government to put a choke on it.
South Ossetia is strategically important for Russia in that they have a base South of the mountainous border, near the Georgian capital of Tblisi. They also have a nice tunnel under the mountains with which to supply their ground troops. South Ossetia is basically a Russian base. It has already been assimilated into the Borg.
Georgian troops may have sparked this confrontation, but it is now clear that the Russian "response" is a takeover of the entire country. One can hardly believe that this is just an impulsive overreaction to a few Georgian shells. Now Russia is blockading Georgian ports and bombing military bases (along with civilian apartments).
For the US to respond militarily and directly attack Russian troops and ships would be madness. Yet, for the US not to respond somehow would be a green light for Russia to continue "peacekeeping" missions in other ex-Soviet republics.
This is a time when we need a strong and wise President, one who can speak authoritatively and carry a big stick.
NATO has to stop dragging it feet. That is do able. The notion that the US Congress, dominated by the Peace Now Democrats, is going to take any serious military moves against their ideological homeland, Russia, is a fools dream
Oil and gas are ‘fungible’ commodities. Our boycott would just lead to someone else (China/Japan/India?) buying from Russia instead of from other supplier.
It is March 1936 again Europe. You face a new Anschluss. Don't screw this one up.
The Russians are trying to dismember Georgia. Them's the facts. Would you justify Hitler's actions in the Sudetenland? Those people actually were German. But that's the historical comparison.
This is a payback for Kosovo.
And for making historically paranoid Russia feel more and more isolated and paranoid by expanding NATO right to their borders.
Now, there is no reasonable response we can make that would have any effect on the situation.
We don’t have the resources to take effective, non-nuclear, military action on our own and NATO is a paper tiger.
Without the USA leading the way and taking the brunt of the action NATO is almost worthless.
And almost any real non-military action we do take will probably hurt us more than the Russkies.
Oh, the pipeline, for starters.
Unless I'm mistaken most of the USSR's oil goes to Europe...either in crude or refined form.If that's true I think they'd be hard pressed to divert it to other places...certainly not quickly.As for their gas,I'm pretty sure that most,if not all,of it goes to Europe.If Europe decides to refuse delivery of the gas I think that that would cause *serious* disruptions for the Soviets.
Russia is telling the USA to keep the hel* out of Russia
The missile defense system the USA wants to install and if the USA does install the shield you will see Russia reborn.
Our Government is being runned by lunatics.
Seems we are bound and determined to learn the hard way that these Russians are just as dam* intelligent as the pretenders in Washington.
A few of these would calm the Russians down a bit.
L
I’ve heard that these Ossetians are Russian in passport terms only. How are they treated in Moscow? I’d guess
not as ethnic Russians...
Orkel
Since Aug 5, 2008
Different ethnicity.
Affirmative.
Guess how’s heading over tomorrow? The Darth One.
You got that right. You're the only "nut"ter allowed to respond to this thread. ;-) See my #2 as reference.
What resulted was a small protected area with Russian allegiances and a unrecognized sham government in the middle of Georgian territory.
Of late, they have been armed and trained by Russian forces and continuously and intentionally do everything possible to irritate any Georgian government that does not tow the Russian flag around with them.
Numerous attempts have been made to get this under Georgian control in the past, and each time resulted in a confrontation with Russia.
It is a tripwire engineered and supported by the Russians to keep Georgia unstable and unable to secure it's borders.
In my most humble of opinions as a Georgian second gen Grandson of Georgian Grandparents who became refugees in 1921.
and then what?
Do you truely believe the Russians don’t have a duplicate design of the exact missile?
Every secrete we had was turned over to China by Bill Clinton.
I bet Russia has more spies in the West than we do in the East. I am not a pretender. Leave Russia Alone.
The Germans and the Frence had to learn the hard way.
“Russia is telling the USA to keep the hel* out of Russia
The missile defense system the USA wants to install and if the USA does install the shield you will see Russia reborn.”
The Soviets lost the cold war. Poland and the Czech Republic are not parts of Russia.
Paging the President of the United States of America!
This kinda answers itself. Before Poland and the Czech Republic was Soviet it was indepedent! Get my drift?
a)The Ossetians are not ethnic Russians, and both South Ossetia and Abkhazia are provinces within the internationally recognized borders of Georgia;
b) the separation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia was fomented directly by Russia. Both areas have 'heads of state' essentially appointed by Russia;
c) Ethnic Georgians were murdered and forced out of both areas by Russian thugs or their puppets in the early 90's
d)This war started after several days of cross border shelling from South Ossetia into Georgian territory. Georgia simply acted to defend itself.
The media (just as they did during the Cold War) are simply reprinting a lot of Russian propaganda.
If we do nothing effective to help the Georgians, look for Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia to be next, and Russia will threaten the Poles from the Kaliningrad district to give up the US BMD system, knowing our security gurantees are worthless.
Someone had a vanity thread last night I still think it worth considering — why doesn’t Bush fly to Tblisi today?
If the Russians don’t stand down ... well, that would be unimaginable for them to attack with the US President there. Bush would be under taking a dangerous proposition - but one that would greatly endear him to some.
The downside (other than the physical danger)? What if the Russians ignore him being there? Well ... the world would turn to the issue like nothing else going on (including the Olympics, which would become a side event). By Bush going there and standing with the Georgians in person, I think they would understand he’s doing all he can short of starting a war with Russia.
Thoughts? (This isn’t like something he can do next week, it has to be in the next 24 hours.)
“It’s very simple, tell Russia either they leave undisputed Georgian Proper or we will set up US and NATO bases there.”
Looks like Russia’s true intent is to take back Georgia. If that is so, are we going to ask Russia’s permission to establish US and NATO bases there? It’s too late for that and our NATO partners aren’t gonna go for it anyway. Ukraine will probably be next.
“Assuming that we don’t want war with the USSR the most effective thing we could do is boycott Soviet oil and gas...which represents about 95% of their economy today.Doing so would cost us dearly but it would devastate them...particularly if it lasted for a while.”
They would just sell to China instead. There are more than enough countries that would buy from them. The West will be as impotent with Russia as it has been with Iran.
a) an undefeated Islamofascist movement;
b) a nuclear Iran and nuclear North Korea;
c)A completely neutralized NATO with Eastern Europe once again under Russian domination;
d)Israel isolated and weakened before a mouning threat from Hezbollah and Hamas.
e) Syria undefeated and allowed to support terrorism, work on its WMD programs and gorge itself on Lebanon once again.
In brief, a complete, unmitigated disaster worthy of the Carter administration. As I said, every nation on earth will now know that an alliance with the US is both dangerous and useless.
Come home Bush! We need someone at the White House to keep the hand on the tiller of the ship of state. Now that Russia has secure the disputed province why are they continuing to roll south? What is there navy doing?
“If Europe decides to refuse delivery of the gas I think that that would cause *serious* disruptions for the Soviets.”
Europe will NEVER do that. They are dependent. Even if they did refuse Russian gas (which they won’t), It’s impact on Russia would be temporary in nature. There is enough of a demand for oil and gas in the world that Russia would simply redirect to friendlier trading partners. Maybe 3 to 6 months at most. Europe is so cowed, they will be down on their knees begging to service the Russian’s for their oil. This is the reason incidentally, why it is a bad idea to rely on imports of foreign oil to run our economy. Drilling might not lower the cost of gas but it will make us less dependent to having our supply cut off.
“If we do nothing effective to help the Georgians, look for Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia to be next, and Russia will threaten the Poles from the Kaliningrad district to give up the US BMD system, knowing our security gurantees are worthless.”
Sounds about right. Russia is taking its power back.
“Now that Russia has secure the disputed province why are they continuing to roll south?”
They are taking back Georgia. They are doing it because they CAN. Who wants to take on the Bear. Not I said Europe, not I said the United States. This was a safe move on the chessboard and the Russian’s knew it.
Pierre, I tip my hat to someone named Pierre wanting to talk tough. And then wink.
Actually, from your post history you seem fine and legit to me. But you sure do look for the dark lining of the white clouds. I’m looking at Iraq and seeing “Islamofascist defeat” there. I take it you are not.
Bush has sacrificed a lot to achieve that - you choose to focus on the price without acknowledging the benefit. (Indeed, you suggest Iraq reflects no such benefit.) We have been focused on that result ... and seeing it through. One Administration can’t fix all of the world’s ills. But somehow not neutering an oil-rich Russia and solving Middle East peace is Bush’s fault? Wow.
And don’t come crying to most of us about Israel’s woes. Israel picked its puny prime minister, not us. If neither Israel nor its co-religionists in the United States are as interested in Israel’s security as the Administration, I hardly think you can legitimately blame the Administrative for its weakened situation.
You sound like a global warming nut blaming Bush for rain in Chad.
No, please elaborate. Also, what do you mean when you say the U.S. needs to get out of Russia? The U.S. is not in Russia.
What’s going on now is all the more reason to drill for all of our oil and natural gas. We need to drive the price down so that oil is like $50 - $70 per barrel. That way, Russia can’t make as much money off of it to fuel their expansionist dreams.
Not only that, he should invite McCain and Obama to go with him. All three of them standing together to say no to Russia. Of course McCain would go but Obama wouldn’t. He prefers the safety of 200,000 adoring Germans...
And as much as a success as Iraq (finally) is, the original people who attacked us on 9/11 seem to have a new safe haven in NW Pakistan.
The success in Iraq doesn't fully offset the weaknesses elsewhere.
Putin's actions in Georgia should be responded to in kind, with 'volunteers' from the US, Turkey, Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. Hell, just a couple of SOF forward air observers and a few B2 raids (deniable) would change things around dramatically.
Ask Rice and State how those Iranian sanctions are working. Be sure to include the German minister who just signed a US $100 million gas equipment deal with the Iranians.
Bush is leaving office having resolved no foreign problems except Saddam Hussein. Do you think that's sufficient?
This account has been banned or suspended.
Well that didn't take long.
Get jiggy with Iran and Cuba. Cuba first since it’s a good proportional insult to what they are doing in Georgia. Geopolitics is back!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.