W.Va. remains red for most electoral map watchers

The Times West Virginian ^ | August 10, 2008 | Lawrence Messina

[2ndDivisionVet]

CHARLESTON — Though the political sands can shift before November, the leading national analysts who dabble in Electoral College math appear uniformly certain that presumptive Republican presidential candidate John McCain can count on West Virginia’s five electoral votes.

The scant attention paid it by McCain and Democrat Barack Obama has helped bring home the realization that the Mountain State is not the battleground it was during the last two races for the White House.

By this time in 2004, for instance, President George Bush and Democrat John Kerry had each headlined three full-fledged events in the state since that year’s primary.-snip-

Here’s how analysts view the Mountain State within the electoral map:

— The Cook Political Report: Charlie Cook and his team includes West Virginia among 15 states deemed “solid red.” Six of those states are in the South, and includes neighboring Kentucky. Cook estimates that McCain could get 174 electoral votes from states rated solid, likely or leaning Republican. Obama’s tally is 240 votes from states similarly trending Democratic. Cook considers nine states, offering 124 votes and including Ohio and Virginia, as toss-ups. The magic number is 270 votes to reach a majority of the Electoral College.

[2ndDivisionVet]

If Larry Sabato, a VERY LIBERAL poli sci professor, thinks that McCain is winning, Barry is in big trouble!

[Dilbert San Diego]

I think there are most registered Dems. in West Virginia than Republicans, but they are more socially conservative than Democrats in the northeast or California.

In a close election every vote counts. In 2000, Bush won the electoral vote by 271 to 267. Those five electoral votes in WV were decisive, after they got Florida all straightened out.

[LetsRok]

There aren’t enough blacks in WV to make a difference. Most WV people do not know or work with blacks so they are not comfortable voting for a black president. It is as simple as that.

[Koblenz]

There aren’t enough blacks in WV to make a difference. Most WV people do not know or work with blacks so they are not comfortable voting for a black president. It is as simple as that.

WV does indeed have a small black population (in fact, one of the smallest of any state in terms of percent). However, in the primaries, many states with small black populations went for Obama. States like Iowa and Montana.

Some analysts have said that there's a 15-50 rule with blacks getting elected. That is, blacks can get elected governor, mayor, whatever, if the population electing them is over 50% black or under 15% black. Over 50%, because most blacks vote for other blacks, so the black candidate wins. However, if there's between 15% and 50% black population, blacks have a hard time winning. This is because when blacks are rising through the ranks, as alderman or state rep or whatever, they're probably in a majority black district. So they base their campaign on being the black candidate, and it's difficult for them to break out of this. However, if the populace is less than 15% black, then chances are the candidate didn't rise up through lesser offices serving just blacks, so the black has had to broaden his appeal.

[Drumbo]

"The scant attention paid it by McCain ..."



http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/08/06/mccain-huddles-with-marshall-team/

This comes four days after McCain visited Marshall here in Huntington. I wonder who this Charleston paper is in the tank for?

..."According to the pool report, the team then crowded around Mr. McCain and raised their hands. “Let’s bring it up, bring it up, bring it up, bring it up, bring it up,” a coach said. “Everybody around the senator. Team on three. Team on three. 1, 2, 3.”
The Herd shouted in unison: “Team!”

My democratic father-in-law, a union pensioner, is dejected. He says he won't be voting. He can't bring himself to vote for a black or a woman. From my experiences here in West by God Virginia, I suspect he's not unique. Conservatives here aren't happy with McCain, but the alternative is unthinkable.

[WVNan]

What I’m hearing from democrats is that they don’t have anybody to vote for, so they will vote for the veteran. I’ve heard that several times. You know how patriotic West Virginians are. They love the military.

[goldstategop]

West Virginians are Reagan Democrats. They are more conservative than Democrats are nationally. The state went Red in the last two presidential elections and it will go Red again this year.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[WVNan]

yep, they will.

[youturn]

Yes, we will.

[Bushiefan]

You bet we will !!

[FreeInWV]

Having once lived in Fairmont and subscribed to the Times West Virginian, I can say that whatever they print can be taken with a grain of salt.

I also think that the GOP and national press do not have a clue about WV. I remember when Hugh Hewitt was reporting the GOP projections that they would easily pick up Byrd’s senate seat. Apparently they were unaware that Byrd was running unopposed at the time. The list goes on....

Personally, I don’t know how WV will go.