Posted on 07/24/2008 7:12:45 PM PDT by 11th_VA
CONCORD – Democratic Senate candidate Jeanne Shaheen's once imposing lead over U.S. Sen. John E. Sununu has all but vanished in recent months according to a University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll released today.
Shaheen leads Sununu in this poll of likely voters, 46 percent to 42 percent, but the spread is within its margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent.
Pollster Andrew Smith stressed the race remains wide open since only 22 percent said they had definitely decided upon a candidate.
During a telephone interview, Smith said voters are starting to focus more on the choices they will face in the fall elections and Sununu has firmed up support among Republicans and economic conservatives.
"Everyone knew this race was going to be close as it was the last time," Smith said of the 2002 race Sununu won, 51 percent to 46 percent.
Since UNH's poll in April, Americans for Job Security, a conservative special interest group made a radio ad attacking Shaheen as a liberal lover of taxes while she was New Hampshire's governor.
"I'm sure those ads didn't help because the tax message is always an effective one here," Smith said.
The challenge remains for Sununu, a one-term incumbent who is one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the country, Smith continued.
"Any time you have an incumbent who is very well known in his state at 42 percent, that's not a good thing," Smith explained. "She has lost some of her momentum, but she's still ahead and Senator Sununu has to figure out how to get to 50 percent plus one by Election Day."
These results emerge one day after the American Research Group reported that its own survey had Shaheen out in front of Sununu by 22 percentage points.
In other UNH survey results, former Republican Congressman Jeb Bradley holds a narrow lead over first-term U.S. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, 46 percent to 40 percent.
Shea-Porter is leading by six points when pitted against the other GOP candidate in the First District race, ex-Health and Human Services Commissioner John Stephen.
"Carol-Shea Porter is in some trouble. She's still not as well known as Jeb Bradley who lost in 2006 because too many Republicans stayed home," Smith said.
"I don't believe that will happen this November."
U.S. Rep. Paul Hodes continues to maintain a large, double-digit advantage over Republican rivals in seeking a second term.
The poll was done by random telephone calls from July 11-20.
I’d like to celebrate, but this vision of David Souter keeps appearing in front of me . . .
LOL !!!
Yahoo! Carole is a Moonbat, Shaheen’s a leftover!!
Just don’t bring back Charlie Bass the Ass who doesn’t realize that he Lost because of his opposition to oil drilling, He can take his environMENTALISM and put it where the Sun don’t shine!
New Hampshire’s rep as a conservative bastion is all hype and BS...$5 per gallon heating oil will chase the remaining conservatives to warmer climes, leaving the uber-libs to freeze to death.
A lot of people on this board cannot bring themselves to work for McCain. I hope everyone will pick a candidate on the local or state level that they can support and will volunteer for that candidate. The fewer seats the GOP loses this year, the few we will have to win back to gain control of the House and Senate.
But don’t neglect the local races and state races. The Democrats took control of the Colorado House and Senate last time around, and it hasn’t been pretty. It takes way less money and time to influence those races...and it makes a real difference in how your state is run.
Excellent news from New Hampshire!
Now, will other polls also reflect this?
Frankly, Sununu isn’t all that great. But he seems to be about the best that the new, liberal New Hampshire can do. Certainly he’s a hell of a lot better than Jean Shaheen. And he will caucus with the Republicans, most of the time.
The GOP is going to fare much better than expected comee Nov - (as usual)....
If the GOP can hold onto NH and Minnesota, then 60 would be out of reach for the Dems.
Rasmussen is out with a poll today as well. Ditto ARG.
Race is closer.
I've got several (representatives Michelle Bachmann and John Kline to name a couple).
I won't donate to McCain or work for him in any official capacity, but I will work to expose Obama for what he is.
I have been saying OIL will get the GOP back only this time don’t blow it.
You’re right:
Rasmussen Reports also shows Sununu gaining ground.
I’m not surprised that Jeb Bradley is ahead of Shea-Porter, who’s a moonbat in a GOP-leaning district who only won due to the toxic atmosphere for Republicans in NH (not to say nationwide) in 2006. Republican turnout will be much higher in NH this November because (i) it’s a presidential year and (ii) John McCain is affirmatively popular in the state. Bradley is not exactly my favorite Republican, but his voting record was not *that* bad, and I hope he wins the nomination and takes down Shea-Porter.
The other district will be much harder to win back, since (i) it leans Democrat, (ii) the Democrat freshman, Paul Hodes, is far less liberal than Shea-Porter and wasn’t a fluke winner like she was and (iii) the longtime RINO incumbent that Hodes unseated in 2006, Charlie Bass, isn’t seeking the seat. We should run a good candidate in case lightning strikes, but our odds of winning there in 2008 are, unfortunately, quite low.
As for the Senate race, it will go to the wire just as in 2002, and like in 2002, my money is on John Sununu, Jr. McCain is going to carry NH in November, and I think Sununu will use that wind on his back to get to 50%.
cool.
“Rasmussen Markets data suggests that Shaheen has a 73.0% chance of winning Colorado’s Senate race in November.”
What a bunch of maroons. She’s only up 50%-45% with over 3 months to go and with voters barely beginning to pay attention and Rasmussen is pretty much mailing in the election? And it’s ironic that Rasmussen’s boner was naming Colorado instead of NH, since Colorado and NH were the two hotly contested states that pollsters insisted that the Democrat Senate candidates would win in 2002 but where the GOP won by around 5% on Election Day. Pollsters are also claiming that Udall will beat Schaffer (sp?) going away in CO; I think they’ll need two orders of crow on Election Night.
I think that Obamamania will have fizzled in CO by November. As for the green Mormon, expect his polls to fizzle if gas prices remain high.
I can guarantee you we won't win back control of Congress this time around due to the numbers of each party up for reelection. However, they could minimize their losses and keep the Senate close enough to filibuster and sustain presidential vetoes. They need to fight like hell on energy, though, and realize that politics is not a gentleman's game and that nice guys finish last. The other side hate our guts. They don't want to be friends, they don't want to compromise, and they won't partake of any "new tone". They are the ENEMY in the ideological war for the future of this country, and Republicans need to recognize this and conduct themselves accordingly.
Shea Porter should be gone at least. ***** was a fluke winner.
Shea-Porter is also trailing in her rematch against Jeb Bradley, so that’s a seat we should retake (although Bradley is no prize). The Hodes seat is not as likely to return to us since Bass isn’t running again.
Whoops, made my comment before I saw yours.
Probably because she threw her lot in with Hussein. I understand from a cousin that he is not at all popular in NH. He expects McCain to carry the state by 8 pts.
We have lived in NH for years and Jeanne Shaheen was a disaster when she was governor. In four short years he raised taxes, doubled the size of the NH government and is TOTALLY OPPOSED TO DRILLING FOR OIL. She is a L O S E R who will never get our vote.
People in NH believe that Shaheen represents “good”, and one cannot convince them otherwise. They think she can lower their fuel costs! Maybe they no longer believe in “Live Free or Die”!
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