Posted on 07/05/2008 9:43:23 PM PDT by zeestephen
93% [of job applicants] are instantly verified within 3-5 seconds.
[Another] 1.2% are verified after an electronic, 24-hour USCIS check without any type of notice being issued to the employee.
5.8% of employees receive initial mismatches (tentative non-confirmations).
5.3% employees receive a final non-confirmation response.....
(Excerpt) Read more at uscis.gov ...
5.3 % of 150,000,000 = 7,950,000
I believe that there are around 9,000,000 W-2s accumulated in SSA's Earnings Suspense File of no-match errors (W-2 name/SSN to SSA master files).
Re: 7.95 million Rejections
I believe E-Verify is currently used by about 25% of USA businesses.
Illegal worker businesses clearly have an incentive not to use it.
Also, news of E-Verify use at certain businesses would spread quickly in the illegal community and knock down applications.
And, I believe there are certain restrictions on using E-Verify for employees already working.
My own guess - the number of illegal workers is well over the 2006 estimate of 12,000,000.
While these statistics may be accurate, the error rate for those with Hispanic surnames is much, much higher.
You are very likely correct on all points. Thanks.
Your numbers are not related to the data under discussion. “All statistics are based on data on the E-Verify program for the first half of FY 2007 (October 2006 through March 2007).” The data captured are only for e-verify inquiries, a volountary program, not for the entire working population.
According to CIS, as of Dec 2006, 12000 employers used it. More recent mentions in the media say 30,000 or 40,000. Certainly not 25%.
While the voluntary numbers are definately rising, many of the employers who think that they may have illegals are shying away from participating because they think that it exposes them to greater scrutiny and more obligations. They don't want to go thru what Swift went thru.
Yes, thanks. I've agreed that extrapolation may not work here, see #6
I took another look at the Earnings Suspense File, it's been awhile since I last looked -- I certainly had one number wrong -- it's not about nine million no-matches it's 255 million no matches in the ESF file (as of 2003, Here).
The nine million number is for the number of employee no-match letters sent out annually -- though I believe that "immigrant rights" groups have pressured SSA to stop mailing them out. The SSA just sends out employer no-match letters now.
The 255 million no-matches did nevertheless contribute $7.2 billion in payroll taxes to SS. Hey! who's complaining -- except when illegal workers become legal they can transfer their W-2 data out of ESF and into valid accounts. Can anyone say amnesty?
Thanks again.
Thanks for the comment.
My “25% of businesses use E-Verify” number is incorrect.
I rechecked the DHS web page, and the correct number, as of 21 May 2008, is “one in eight new hires,” which is 12.5% of new hires.
There are a lot of numbers and terms on that page, and I did not read it carefully enough.
The link is:
http://www.dhs.gov/journal/leadership/2008/05/debunking-e-verify-capacity-problem.html
The 255 million no-matches did nevertheless contribute $7.2 billion in payroll taxes to SS. Hey! who's complaining -- except when illegal workers become legal they can transfer their W-2 data out of ESF and into valid accounts. Can anyone say amnesty?.
SS is a pay as you go system so that money has long been spent. There is a reason why the SS Trust Fund is included in our $9 trillion national debt.
I have not seen any numbers on that, but have heard the anecdotes.
The main function of “E-Verify” is to match names (like the one on an applicant's Drivers License) with a recorded Social Security number.
Since the spelling of most Hispanic names has been completely Anglicized, it's hard to understand why this would be a special problem for Hispanics.
I can see that Chinese names or Indonesian names might cause a computer problem, but Hispanic names?
E-Verify also delivers the photo that is on a “Green Card” or a temporary “Work Visa,” so there can't be a problem on that level, either.
There's a graph of the volume of data in the Earnings Suspense File (ESF)
"Appendix B Background on the Earnings Suspense File" shows volume taking off like a shuttle launch in the late 1990s and as of 2003 had not yet reached orbit.
Another interesting thing is a tiny peak in the late 1980s followed by a drop. No doubt the 1986 amnesty resulted in lots of illegal workers gettin' dem bogus W-2s transferred out of ESF and into SSA master files.
So when amnesty yanks those 255 million unmatched W-2s out of ESF and puts them into SSA master files that pay-as-you-go system will done gone and went a few dollars beyond the current $9 trillion national debt.
www.ssa.gov/oig/ADOBEPDF/A-03-03-23053.pdf
Well yes you are correct. This is but one of the reasons that Congress was never able to come up with immigration reform. The swollen earnings suspense file has extended the drop dead date of SS.
Fiest, the SS database and the DHS database will have to be merged. Civil libertarians are opposed to merging federal databases. The compromise position is to merges the databases but put in a sunset clause.
Second, link Real ID with EEV. The failed legislation would have required, beginning in 2013, all job applicants to use Real ID.
To get a better understanding of these issues, as they played out in the Senate last year, search the Baucus-Tester amendment 1236 and the Grassley-Baucus-Obama amendment 1441.
Also keep in mind that earlier this year Chertoff acknowledge that Real ID was being delayed, there would be two tiers of conformance with 1963 being the cut-off date, and that some states who weren't in conformance were in conformance.
Also look at House GOPer Sam Johnson's alternative verification bill that utilizes the private sector.
.. yes, agreed. However amnesty with credit for the bogus and stolen SSNs would move the execution date for SS years earlier than the scheduled date now. IMO.
If memory serves I heard an audio of McCain last year stating that he would not let amnesty include credit for illegal work. However, I believe that the bill last considered by the Senate did include credit for illegal work -- most likely any new bill will have language that permits both sides to claim victory.
For anyone who looked at the graph. Did you notice that it was virtual flat from 1937 to about the mid-80s? So I cannot believe as some claim that all of a sudden millions of newly-wed brides forget or refuse to inform the SSA of name changes.
It is hard to speculate on the outcome of the elections, but if the dems extend their control of congress and win the presidency, they will surely abandon the Kennedy-McCain compromise and the Grower-Union AgJobs compromise. Plus, we don't know who will replace Kennedy as the dem lead man on immigration. Probably Dorgan.
So far, all they've done is charge first class plane tickets to Mexico City on my credit cards.
Re: Pay As You Go
How do the La Raza Boomers plan to get paid when they retire?
By North Koreans and Muslims?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.