Posted on 07/03/2008 1:23:35 PM PDT by Schnucki
The warning by the senior US military commander Adm Mike Mullen that an attack on Iran would be "extremely stressful" for US forces must lessen the chances of the US taking part in any strike against Iran.
But the admiral, who is chairman of the joint chiefs of staff and who has just visited Israel, spoke of Israel's vulnerability to "very real threats".
So the possibility remains that Israel might undertake an operation against Iran by itself. Recent large-scale Israeli air force exercises have strengthened this possibility, according to military observers.
Nor does Adm Mullen's intervention resolve the ambiguity of the Bush administration's position that "all options" are on the table.
But his views do indicate that the body of US military opinion is that they have their hands full in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Administration at odds
Adm Mullen's opinion echoes what the then head of Central Command, Adm William Fallon, said last November, that an attack on Iran was not "in the offing".
Adm Fallon resigned in March amid reports that he was at odds with the administration over Iran.
Increasingly, the military option seems to be narrowing to an Israeli option.
While Adm Mullen did not diverge from the Bush administration's line that the military option remains for the US and also said that in his view Iran was working to develop nuclear weapons, he stressed that "the solution still lies in using... diplomatic, financial and international pressure".
Military opposition to an attack on Iran is bound to weigh heavily on President George W Bush but would not necessarily be the determining factor.
Whether President Bush would dissuade Israel from launching its own attack is not known.
Iran has warned that any attack would bring consequences, one of which could be an Iranian move to close the Straits of Hormuz, through which oil is transported from the Gulf. The effect on oil prices would be serious.
An Israeli cabinet minister and former chief of staff, Shaul Mofaz, has said that an attack on Iran is "unavoidable" if it "continues with its nuclear programme".
However, the timing of any attack remains uncertain.
Red lines
A recent ABC News report suggested that Israel might act before two "red lines" are reached.
The first would be the production by Iran of enough highly-enriched uranium to make a nuclear bomb and the second would be its acquisition of a new Russian anti-aircraft system, the S-300.
However, Iran is not making highly enriched uranium suitable for a weapon, only low-enriched uranium useable as nuclear power fuel.
The International Atomic Energy Agency would probably spot any move to change this. So exactly how and when this "red line" might be reached is unclear.
As for the S-300, it was only in December that Iran indicated that it would buy this very advanced anti-aircraft system. It has only recently taken possession of the Tor-MI and it could be many months before the S-300 is delivered.
Iran says that it has no intention of developing nuclear weapons and a US National Intelligence Estimate has concluded that it probably gave up a nuclear weapons programme in 2003.
The threat of doing nothing is worse. The Mullah’s have never heard of Nash’s equilibrium.
Damn joooos wanting to protect themselves!!!
Leaving this mess to Israel is basically dishonnorable.
IMO the first target of an Iranian nuke will be Baghdad.
The threat of doing nothing is worse. The Mullah’s have never heard of Nash’s equilibrium.
If the U.S. now thinks it can hide from this mass murderer who’s taken his place on the world stage, that it can awkwardly bow out, appease, and continue with polite discussions, it is sadly and dangerously mistaken and is leaving the people of the U.S. and a large part of the world in nuclear danger from this Iranian madman.
You might want to reread this part -
“But his views do indicate that the body of US military opinion is that they have their hands full in Iraq and Afghanistan.”
Care to help? I’m sure plenty on FR would be more than happy to e-mail you directions to your nearest US military recruiter.
The Army/US forces here in Iraq could handle it. Just bring in another 100,000 KBR folks and we’ll get right on it.
But to the real point, this is not the USSR or China, the crazy man in Iran doesn’t care what happens just as long as he gets his shots in and brings about this “prophecy” of his.
Two things come to mind that make most of the speculation non-meaningful. Iran’s punkass government might last for thirty days should they decide not to sell their own oil-—it’s their only real source of income. Should they decide not to buy refined petro products they would last an even shorter time since they don’t refine much of their own. If they try to interfere with other Arab oil sales the entire world including Japan, China, Skorea, Taiwan, Australia (make up your own list) would come down on them like bricks they never imagined. It doesn’t matter who their intended target might be but if an air- or waterborne weapon leaves Iranian space the entire 5th fleet as well as task force 150 will finish their lunch for them. No wonder Akmonutjob is so cheezy and meally-mouthed. He is boxed in and knows it. He is limited to causing us problems by sneaking out small weapons but even his ability to do that is dwindling. Wonder if he can say “I’m broke.”
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