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The South Will Fall Again
The New York Times ^ | 7/1/08 | THOMAS F. SCHALLER

Posted on 07/01/2008 5:23:44 AM PDT by Obadiah

THE interim between the primaries and the parties’ nominating conventions is, according to ancient writ, a fertile period for presidential campaigns to talk about how they plan to expand the political map in the fall. This year is no different. Barack Obama’s strategists are suggesting that the first African-American presidential nominee of a major political party can parlay increased turnout among black voters into a string of victories in the South.

Given that roughly half of all African-Americans live in the 11 former Confederate states, the idea seems intuitive enough. It’s also wrong. Prying Southern electoral votes away from the Republicans is not so simple.

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Alabama; US: Georgia; US: Mississippi; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: blackvote; electionpresident; obama; south; southernvote
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Interesting opinion column.
1 posted on 07/01/2008 5:23:44 AM PDT by Obadiah
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To: Obadiah

One parites “fall” is another’s “rise”. But from the NYT perspective a dem. loss is a fall.


2 posted on 07/01/2008 5:29:14 AM PDT by dblshot
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To: Obadiah

Its going to be hard for Black districts to vote more than the 105% they voted last election.

Pray for W and Our Troops


3 posted on 07/01/2008 5:31:21 AM PDT by bray (Drill Congress!!!)
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To: Obadiah

In theory all of the states of the old Confederacy could flip to Obama. Energized minority voters, disenchanted white voters, influx of liberals from Up East, shaky economy could add up to some election night surprises.

It is not likely to happen, but it means that McCain will have to spend scarce resources to protect the GOP’s southern flank. This is money that will be desperately needed by McCain in the midwest and western swing states.


4 posted on 07/01/2008 5:40:33 AM PDT by buckalfa (confused and bewildered)
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To: dblshot
Given that roughly half of all African-Americans live in the 11 former Confederate states

I was wondering when this was going to happen.

I predict that, if the South goes for McCain, the Confederate theme will be used frequently to suggest that the McCain victory was based on racism.

5 posted on 07/01/2008 5:40:50 AM PDT by cowboyway ("The beauty of the Second Amendment is you won't need it until they try to take it away"--Jefferson)
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To: Obadiah
A good bit of the article sounds like "those racist white Southerners aren't going to vote for a black man"...

I have no idea if the guy is correct or not, and he certainly has better qualifications to make these predictions than I do, but I will note that Barack Obama (even if you don't agree with him) is more personable than John Kerry.

6 posted on 07/01/2008 5:41:41 AM PDT by Amelia
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To: Obadiah

The south has fewer stupid people than the north east U.S.(liberals)


7 posted on 07/01/2008 5:47:58 AM PDT by Graybeard58
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To: Amelia
...is more personable than John Kerry

That's not saying a whole lot. The stone heads on Easter Island are more personable than John Kerry...
8 posted on 07/01/2008 5:51:20 AM PDT by lump in the melting pot ("Wonderful theory. Wrong species." - Edward O. Wilson, an expert on ants, describing Marxism)
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To: buckalfa

“McCain will have to spend scarce resources to protect the GOP’s southern flank.”

Yep, the GOP should have to finally pay for constantly betraying their base. Let’s just pray the country doesn’t pay too much.


9 posted on 07/01/2008 6:00:42 AM PDT by demshateGod (the GOP is dead to me)
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To: lump in the melting pot
The stone heads on Easter Island are more personable than John Kerry...

And they even LOOK similar!

10 posted on 07/01/2008 6:03:11 AM PDT by brushcop (We remember SSG Harrison Brown, PVT Andrew Simmons B CO 2/69 3ID KIA Iraq OIF IV)
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To: Amelia
I can't tell you how strongly I object to the idea that anyone who won't vote for Obama is doing it because he's black.

I'd vote for Thomas Sowell or any one of a dozen other notable black men (or women) for President tomorrow but I won't vote for Obama at gunpoint.

Race has NOTHING to do with it.

11 posted on 07/01/2008 6:12:35 AM PDT by tcostell (MOLON LABE - http://freenj.blogspot.com - RadioFree NJ)
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To: cowboyway

Yep.


12 posted on 07/01/2008 6:21:40 AM PDT by fightinJAG (RUSH: McCain was in the Hanoi Hilton longer than we've been in Iraq, and never gave up.)
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To: All

I don’t care if people refuse to vote for Obama because he is black. I don’t care if they refuse because they believe he is a muslim. I don’t care if it’s because they think he’s the AntiChrist, I just want people to vote against him. He is truly one of the greatest threats in the history of our wonderful nation. Sometimes you have to get your hands dirty when fighting evil, or as I like to say, “sometimes change only happens when very good men are forced to do very bad things”. We are not fighting an adversary who plays fair, so if it truly is racism that keeps this piece of garbabe out of the White House, so be it. I’ve got a thousand reasons to vote against him, none of which are his skin color...


13 posted on 07/01/2008 6:26:18 AM PDT by Maverick68 (w)
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To: cowboyway

Rephrase!!

I predict that, if the South goes for McCain, the Confederate theme will be used frequently to suggest that the McCain victory was based on racism.

Change IF to WHEN!!


14 posted on 07/01/2008 6:45:28 AM PDT by Renegade (You go tell my buddies)
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To: Obadiah
What basis does this NYT writer have for calling the South the most racially polarized region of the country? My guess is that racial antagonism is worst in the Northern metropolitan areas, but elitists up in New York like to look down on Southerners as benighted.
15 posted on 07/01/2008 6:56:36 AM PDT by Verginius Rufus
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To: Verginius Rufus
My guess is that racial antagonism is worst in the Northern metropolitan areas

Black friends who have lived in the north and the south tell me that is true, but I can't personally say one way or the other.

I do know the busing riots in Boston were worse than most of what we saw in the south...

16 posted on 07/01/2008 7:05:01 AM PDT by Amelia
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To: Maverick68

I don’t care if people refuse to vote for Obama because he is black. I don’t care if they refuse because they believe he is a muslim. I don’t care if it’s because they think he’s the AntiChrist, I just want people to vote against him. He is truly one of the greatest threats in the history of our wonderful nation. Sometimes you have to get your hands dirty when fighting evil, or as I like to say, “sometimes change only happens when very good men are forced to do very bad things”. We are not fighting an adversary who plays fair, so if it truly is racism that keeps this piece of garbabe out of the White House, so be it. I’ve got a thousand reasons to vote against him, none of which are his skin color...””

So well stated that it bears repeating.

I’m sure there will soon appear the Freepers who call you “racist” for saying as much, and admonishing you to put the sheets back in the closet.

When the “race card” is being played against you, as Obama has played it from the very beginning (by denying the 50% of himself that is white), one had better be prepared to “play it back” or face losing the game. I’m perfectly comfortable usin’ that card....

- John


17 posted on 07/01/2008 7:06:41 AM PDT by Fishrrman
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To: demshateGod

One might recall that as late as 1976 much of the old Confederacy went for a liberal Democrat—who was running against a “moderate” Republican.


18 posted on 07/01/2008 7:16:40 AM PDT by Fiji Hill
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To: Verginius Rufus

I concur.


19 posted on 07/01/2008 7:51:58 AM PDT by Obadiah (I remember when the climate never changed, then Bush stole the election.)
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To: Fishrrman

Thanks. I don’t believe in “playing fair” if my child’s future and freedom are on the line. Obama is a dangerous politician whose skin color has been a shield from criticism that would have had a white man trounced from the primaries. If he is indeed elected, you will be unable to criticize the govt for fear of being labeled a racist. I have seen too many opportunities squandered by the minority community to give a damn anymore.


20 posted on 07/01/2008 8:28:51 AM PDT by Maverick68 (w)
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