Posted on 06/30/2008 5:41:36 AM PDT by Invisigoth
There is nothing that has fascinated Democrats this election cycle more than the prospect of their nominee winning Virginia in November. It would indeed be the Democrats’ first time to do so in more than 40 years, and the idea of cutting into the Republicans' hold on the south is, understandably, extremely exciting for them (although if they have set foot in Northern Virginia, which contains a third of the state's votes, they would understand the foolishness of interpreting a Virginia victory as anything resembling the takeover of a “southern” state.)
Nonetheless, that is all they are talking about. They are, however, quite off in their expectations. Despite the groupthink-generated excitement, an objective look at Virginia most likely leads to the conclusion that Barack Obama does not, in fact, have that much “hope” of winning the state.
The Democrats have been basing their hopes of winning Virginia on the gubernatorial victory of Tim Kaine in 2005, the senatorial victory of Jim Webb in 2006 and former Governor Mark Warner’s poll lead in the upcoming election to fill retiring Sen. John Warner’s Senate seat.
(Excerpt) Read more at northstarwriters.com ...
In Southwest Virginia during the Rat primary, Hillary took 90% of the vote. My dad (back home there), who is a hard-core life-long Democrat of the New Deal variety, told me that under know circumstances would he vote for “that man.” This was after the Jeremiah Wright sermons emerged. So, he’s voting for McCain in November, probably the first time in his life he’s ever voted Republican in a presidential election.
Never happened. Every day makes it clearer that Obambam is out of his league and on course to lose beyond McGovern’s wildest nightmares.
It’s so obvious, he’s in real danger of losing the nomination. They’ll figure out how, between now and late August. By then, race riots will be a lovelier prospect than the embarrassing loss he’ll face. Not to mention the toilet paper coattails of that loss.
It’s like the Beast said. “He can’t win.”
“(although if they have set foot in Northern Virginia, which contains a third of the state’s votes, they would understand the foolishness of interpreting a Virginia victory as anything resembling the takeover of a “southern” state.)”
How TRUE!!! And what a shame for the “rest of us”.
That being said, I predict Obama will implode.
My elderly parents in southern Missouri say the same. Roosevelt democrats, they will be voting Republican in November.
Turnout my friend, turnout. VA is very much in play.
I think so too......
I see where the “pundits” say Iowa will go Obammy. Bwahahahahaha.
Wanna bet? They talk a good talk but walk a white line.
Can you provide any evidence of that? Why does poll after poll show he is ahead?
"For Sen. Obama, the registration initiative is at the fore, especially since the main reason for low black turnout is low registration. The U.S. Census Bureau says that while registered black voters turn out at a rate generally even with white counterparts, qualified African-Americans register at a lower rate nationally -- 68% to 75% for whites. The gap is particularly stark in the battleground state of Florida, where only 53% of eligible blacks were registered in 2004, compared with 71% of whites. In Virginia, it was 58% to 72%.
Black turn out is going to set records this year and could very well prove decisive in a number of states, including VA.
While it’s not hard to see Warner winning, I can’t imagine Obama doing the same.
i tend not to trust the polls - they seem to skew their sample populations towards dems so of course they show Obama ahead.
Richmond ping.
I tend to agree with the author that Obama will not win in Virginia.
Common sense + history of US presidential races.
Why, do you think he won’t lose? I’m a pessimist and still I know he’ll lose.
Why did poll after poll show Dukakis ahead?
(Must...believe...polls...Must...believe...polls...)
He will lose by a good 8-10%, too...it ain't gonna be nearly as close as the RAT-Media would have us believe...Dave
I am praying that this whole election will be an upset across the board for BO.
While I agree there is a blue trend in VA, your first sentence is incorrect. The GOP won both the AG and LtGov seat the same year that kaine won.
This is the strangest and most contrary article I have read on Virginia politics, to date. According to the author, the “reasons” that Obama will NOT win Virginia are:
a] Because they have recently elected a Democratic Governor and two Democratic Senators? Makes no sense.
b] That these recently elected Democrats are, in fact, Conservatives? These guys are more centrist than BHO, for sure, but CONSERVATIVES? Doesn’t that require them to have an “(R)” after their names?
c] That Republicans have recently run very poor election campaigns in Virginia? And...WTF is this supposed to mean?
d] That GWB won Virginia by 8 pts in 2000 and 2004? Is GWB running again? Will McCain win GWB’s base, EVER?
e] That N. Virginia was solidly for Kerry in 2004 and that support for Republicans in N. Virginia is lagging in comparison? I’m really lost with this one...
f] That Virginia’s AA population was solidly behind Kerry and will be galvanised by Obama’s candidacy? Again - WTF?
He sums the situation up, HILARIOUSLY, as follows:
“In short, Barack Obama will lose Virginia because it is still a conservative state, and because the situation has not improved as much for the Democrats as they would have us believe.”
It’s a Conservative state? A state that has just elected a Democratic governor and 2 Democratic Senators since 2006, where recent Republican campaigns have been disastrous, where GWB won by only eight points (actually, that’s a fair margin) in 2004, but whose support is slipping, especially among the 20-odd-percent of African-Americans?
Is this guy a satirist or merely a closet Democrat?
This is all predicated on Republicans and Conservatives voting for McCain. If that happens, he has a chance. I don’t see it happening, in Virginia or across the country.
Hoping is always good, but WeThePeople have an obligation to make it a reality...Dave
Why is it that we always hear about liberals moving into various states and moving them left(purple)such as Colorado, Florida, and Virginia but never conservatives moving in and shifting a state to the right? Don’t self identified conservatives have more children than their liberal peers?
Sheeesh...you non-Virginians who can't figger out why we don't vote RATS into the White House need to get a clue!!
Regards...Dave
BTW...nothing personal, Ingtar, but unless yer a Virginian, you don't know diddley...LOL!!
The funny part is not how empty of a suit this guy is and how untested he is in every way. The funny part is that the Democrats chose an untested, very inexperienced Junior Senator with 3 Muslim names and one of them is the same as the enemy we just defeated in a major war.
It;s so beautiful I wish I knew where I could bet on McCain because I would clean up.
They’ve only won one democratic senator, and to do that they ran a Republican who was Reagan’s Secretary of the Navy, and had to take Macaca, the N-word, and attacking Allen’s mother for being Jewish in order to squeak out a 10,000-vote victory in a horrible year for Republicans.
Kaine ran as anti-tax, pro-gun, supportive of current death penalty rules, and personally pro-life. He was lying of course, but the media somehow missed that.
Anyway, McCain is military, and won’t lose the military vote like Allen did (Webb was seen as a good military man, and the military folks to some degree didn’t like Allen’s attacks on Webb for his books, which the military liked).
Because, like it will happen here in Tennessee and as it happened with Dole, the MSM will bring up every little vote that paints McCain as pro-abortion (pro-embryonic stem cell research,) anti-veteran (tons of votes there,) anti-Christian.
All it would take to insure Obama’s loss in Virginia would be ads with that 52-second video of him talking about his plans to destroy our military. He’d be toast here.
Of course, someone has to come up with the money.
Just like non-evangelicals, right?
Obama supports Partial Birth Abortion...McCain doesn't.
Obama would nominate judges who would vote in favor of keeping the ridiculous Roe v. Wade decision in place...McCain, with our RightWing leadership, will nominate Strict Consrtuctionists to the SCOTUS, and any Strict Constructionist worth his/her salt knows that Roe v. Wade makes a mockery of the Constitution!!
When push comes to shove, most Virginians are gonna "Just Say No!!" to the ObamaNation...period.
Hopefully, you folks in Tennessee can get yer act together, too...LOL!!
Regards...Dave
Liberal Jews in my family will likewise be voting Republican for the first time in their lives. It is really nice to be on the same page politically for once.
The item you are discussing must be on YouTube, right?
"Of course, someone has to come up with the money."
Hah!! There are more than one way to skin a cat...if you can post/link a YouTube version of your 52-second item here, I will make sure to spread it around to my friends in the military.
"WE DON'T NEED NO STEEENKIN' NETWORKS!! We got Rush!!"
Regards...Dave
Webb also did very well in the southwestern part of the Commonwealth because of his “country” origins, his pro-UMWA talk, and his general “hell-or-highwater” independence of thought. He doesn’t take orders from anyone, even Reid, and that was very appealing to the coal mining Democrats back home.
Here ya go. I probably should have said he wants to destroy our national defense.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dl32Y7wDVDs&feature=related
Clinton supported PBA, while Dole didn't. Though, by the time the election rolled around, the MSM managed to paint Dole as pro-abortion... as they recently did to Thompson. You may be correct about the changes in the media, but they did not help Fred.
And, sorry, McCain will not appoint strict constructionists. Well, perhaps a token one to get shot down. He does not want McCain-Feingold overturned. Strict Constructionists do not play to the base he is trying to build. There are other reasons.
This is good news. The author of the article has a last name (Ibrahim) which sounds Jewish. I hope that with Obama’s Muslim roots, McCain will be able to cut into the, normally, strong Jewish Democratic vote margin.
Off topic, but Fred didn't help himself...that was a feeble excuse for a campaign he put one.
"And, sorry, McCain will not appoint strict constructionists."
Folks said the same thing about Dubyuh...and what did he do, he nominated Harriet Miers!! But notice what happened then...the ReaganConservatives rose up and SMOTE her nomination, killed it in the crib. Voila...Alito is a Strict Constructionist. McCain will not nominate a Souter or a Miers...if he does, the RightWing will spank his punk ass!!
LOL...now, compare that with what we're gonna git if the RATS get Obama in the Oval Office. Ginsberg? Breyer? They are friggin' Marxist flakes!! And Obama will nominate more like them and the GOP (and ReaganConservatives) will be powerless to stop them (as if we'd even try...LOL!!)
Regards...Dave
BTW..."Well, perhaps a token one to get shot down. He does not want McCain-Feingold overturned. Strict Constructionists do not play to the base he is trying to build. There are other reasons."
Heh heh heh...for the record, if you actually believe McCain gives a damn about McCain/Feingold getting overturned by the SCOTUS, you are whistlin' Dixie. The Maverick just championed CFR to kiss ass on the Vast LeftWing Media Whore'd!! And it worked...look who's gonna be our next RINO POTUS!!
The two he is running around currently touting his votes for? I believe that is exactly what we will get from him.
True, and Webb made very much of his "Scots-Irish" origins -- even wrote a much-lauded book on the subject. Even yours truly liked it! In any case, Webb's vigorous defense of his own ethnic group was another booster in SW Virginia, where the people are probably 80 to 90% Scots-Irish.
Moreover, Webb walked away with the normally-pro-GOP Vietnamese vote in NOVA, thanks to his Vietnamese wife's tireless campaigning, and he took the (Asian) Indian vote thanks to the relentless "maccaca" campaign by the Washington Post.
Take away the coal miners of SW Virginia, the Vietnamese, the Indians, and the Navy/Marine Corps voters in both NOVA and Hampton Roads -- and then Webb's 5,000 vote margin of victory probably becomes a 20,000 vote deficit.
Now to be sure, an upsurge in black voting could turn the tables -- as could a discouraged, stay-at-home Republican base. But those eventualities are still very long shots. As things stand today, I'd have to say, "Advantage GOP."
Webb also had an upsurge of African American votes. They were encouraged to register and vote because of the Marriage Amendment campaign (lots of blacks oppose gay marriage). This drove up their numbers, and they then voted for Webb.
Imho,
Once we all find ourselves in the deep recesses of the polling booth, I have a suspicious notion most of us ‘clear-thinking’ Americans will ‘hold our nose’ so to speak on immigration and vote for McCain. Hopefully, we can actually generate GOP coattails for aspiring congressional leaders such as Col. Allen West in HR FL22.
the Deets
We elected a Democratic governor and even the Democratics cannot stand the guy. His poll numbers are trending downward over the last year. Transportation spending not getting approved, Abuser fees last year, higher taxes, this year’s $5.00 fee to get things from the DMV in person. He is done and Webb isn’t doing all that great either.
Barry Hussein is the hero of the anti-American, Marxist Left...why would that be?
LOL...Dave
But its not about race.
I have no doubt Barrack Hussein will carry the DC area.
I am not saying he won't lose, just that he might win. There is a difference.
Why did poll after poll show Dukakis ahead?
It did not, only one poll after the convention showed him ahead by 17. People keep referring to this over and over again, but this poll was an outlier. On the other hand, EVERY poll right now is showing Obama ahead. Obviously, he is ahead right now. We need to start hammering his image to bring him down. That is all I am saying.
But we’re not now “after the convention,” are we.
It wasn’t too hard to find more polls showing Dukakis ahead. Here’s another “outlier.”
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=940DEEDD1F3EF934A25756C0A96E948260
Dukakis 49, Bush 39, in May of 1988.
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