Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

For FReepers who are interested in what is really going on in crude and energies, I've posted this because A) James Williams is on anyone's list of the top 2 or 3 energy analysts in the US, and B) the article itself -- current events aside -- is an excellent explanation of the basic workings of futures markets.
1 posted on 05/31/2008 8:27:54 AM PDT by SAJ
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies ]


To: txflake

Tulip-o-mania ping!


2 posted on 05/31/2008 8:31:54 AM PDT by Nervous Tick (La Raza hates white folks. And John McCain loves La Raza!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]

To: SAJ

It was common in those days, as it is in ours, to identify the Communists as leftist and the Nazis as rightists, as if they stood on opposite ends of the ideological spectrum. But Mises knew differently. They both sported the same ideological pedigree of socialism. “The German and Russian systems of socialism have in common the fact that the government has full control of the means of production. It decides what shall be produced and how. It allots to each individual a share of consumer’s goods for his consumption.”

The difference between the systems, wrote Mises, is that the German pattern “maintains private ownership of the means of production and keeps the appearance of ordinary prices, wages, and markets.” But in fact the government directs production decisions, curbs entrepreneurship and the labor market, and determines wages and interest rates by central authority. “Market exchange,” says Mises, “is only a sham.”

Mises’s account is confirmed by a remarkable book that appeared in 1939, published by Vanguard Press in New York City (and unfortunately out of print today). It is The Vampire Economy: Doing Business Under Fascism by Guenter Reimann, then a 35-year old German writer. Through contacts with German business owners, Reimann documented how the “monster machine” of the Nazis crushed the autonomy of the private sector through onerous regulations, harsh inspections, and the threat of confiscatory fines for petty offenses.

“Industrialists were visited by state auditors who had strict orders to examine the balance sheets and all bookkeeping entries of the company or individual businessman for the preceding two, three or more years until some error or false entry was found,” explains Reimann. “The slightest formal mistake was punished with tremendous penalties. A fine of millions of marks was imposed for a single bookkeeping error.”

Reimann quotes from a businessman’s letter: “You have no idea how far state control goes and how much power the Nazi representatives have over our work. The worst of it is that they are so ignorant. These Nazi radicals think of nothing except ‘distributing the wealth.’ Some businessmen have even started studying Marxist theories, so that they will have a better understanding of the present economic system.

“While state representatives are busily engaged in investigating and interfering, our agents and salesmen are handicapped because they never know whether or not a sale at a higher price will mean denunciation as a ‘profiteer’ or ‘saboteur,’ followed by a prison sentence. You cannot imagine how taxation has increased. Yet everyone is afraid to complain. Everywhere there is a growing undercurrent of bitterness. Everyone has his doubts about the system, unless he is very young, very stupid, or is bound to it by the privileges he enjoys.

“There are terrible times coming. If only I had succeeded in smuggling out $10,000 or even $5,000, I would leave Germany with my family. Business friends of mine are convinced that it will be the turn of the ‘white Jews’ (which means us, Aryan businessmen) after the Jews have been expropriated. The difference between this and the Russian system is much less than you think, despite the fact that we are still independent businessmen.”

As Mises says, “independent” only in a decorous sense. Under fascism, explains this businessman, the capitalist “must be servile to the representatives of the state” and “must not insist on rights, and must not behave as if his private property rights were still sacred.” It’s the businessman, characteristically independent, who is “most likely to get into trouble with the Gestapo for having grumbled incautiously.”

“Of all businessmen, the small shopkeeper is the one most under control and most at the mercy of the party,” recounts Reimann. “The party man, whose good will he must have, does not live in faraway Berlin; he lives right next door or right around the corner. This local Hitler gets a report every day on what is discussed in Herr Schultz’s bakery and Herr Schmidt’s butcher shop. He would regard these men as ‘enemies of the state’ if they complained too much. That would mean, at the very least, the cutting of their quota of scarce and hence highly desirable goods, and it might mean the loss of their business licenses. Small shopkeepers and artisans are not to grumble.”

“Officials, trained only to obey orders, have neither the desire, the equipment, nor the vision to modify rules to suit individual situations,” Reimann explains. “The state bureaucrats, therefore, apply these laws rigidly and mechanically, without regard for the vital interests of essential parts of the national economy. Their only incentive to modify the letter of the law is in bribes from businessmen, who for their part use bribery as their only means of obtaining relief from a rigidity which they find crippling.”

Says another businessman: “Each business move has become very complicated and is full of legal traps which the average businessman cannot determine because there are so many new decrees. All of us in business are constantly in fear of being penalized for the violation of some decree or law.”

Business owners, explains another entrepreneur, cannot exist without a “collaborator,” i.e., a “lawyer” with good contacts in the Nazi bureaucracy, one who “knows exactly how far you can circumvent the law.” Nazi officials, explains Reimann, “obtain money for themselves by merely taking it from capitalists who have funds available with which to purchase influence and protection,” paying for their protection “as did the helpless peasants of feudal days.”

“It has gotten to the point where I cannot talk even in my own factory,” laments a factory owner. “Accidentally, one of the workers overheard me grumbling about some new bureaucratic regulation and he immediately denounced me to the party and the Labor Front office.”

Reports another factory owner: “The greater part of the week I don’t see my factory at all. All this time I spend in visiting dozens of government commissions and offices in order to get raw materials I need. Then there are various tax problems to settle and I must have continual conferences and negotiations with the Price Commission. It sometimes seems as if I do nothing but that, and everywhere I go there are more leaders, party secretaries, and commissars to see.”

In this totalitarian paradigm, a businessman, declares a Nazi decree, “practices his functions primarily as a representative of the State, only secondarily for his own sake.” Complain, warns a Nazi directive, and “we shall take away the freedom still left you.”

In 1933, six years before Reimann’s book, Victor Klemperer, a Jewish academic in Dresden, made the following entry in his diary on February 21: “It is a disgrace that gets worse with every day that passes. And there’s not a sound from anyone. Everyone’s keeping his head down.”

It is impossible to escape the parallels between Guenter Reimann’s account of doing business under the Nazis and the “compassionate,” “responsible,” and regulated “capitalism” of today’s U.S. economy today. At least the German government was frank enough to give the right name to its system of economic control.

Here is the link for this article:

http://mises.org/story/47


3 posted on 05/31/2008 8:36:10 AM PDT by stockpirate (I'll vote McCain under plenty of Obama.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]

To: SAJ

I disagree with this guy. If we run a futures market that is different than in, say, London, the futures market will simply move across the pond and we’ll have a lot of people out of business in this country. Only if all markets trading oil futures do the same will this make an impact.


4 posted on 05/31/2008 8:39:18 AM PDT by nicola_tesla ("Life is Tough... It's Worse When You're Stupid".... John Wayne)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]

To: SAJ

Thanks for the post. Interesting and educational.

>> George Soros is scheduled to testify before the Senate next week. He has already publicly blamed speculators for higher prices.

Well, that sucks. Soros and I agree on something...

OTOH, knowing George Soros, he too was speculating in oil — probably up until last week. Now he has liquidated his long position and is short oil... hence the testimony that speculators are ruining everything for innocent “biznesmen” like his honorable self. The bastid.


5 posted on 05/31/2008 8:39:48 AM PDT by Nervous Tick (La Raza hates white folks. And John McCain loves La Raza!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]

To: SAJ
If the CFTC does as we expect and reclassifies index traders and swaps dealers as speculators instead of hedgers it will increase their margins substantially and more important it will impose position limits. If this happens prices will drop. We have no clue about timing. It could be two weeks or two months, but when it comes there will be a substantial drop in crude oil prices.

This new found "public spiritedness" (at the point of a Congressional skewer) will merely result in greatly increased trading of oil futures outside the US!

Money flows at the speed of light to where the biggest bang for the buck can be found and there is no more fungible commodity on the planet than oil!

I wonder where the huge pension funds and international government investment entities will trade?

6 posted on 05/31/2008 8:47:12 AM PDT by ExSES (the "bottom-line")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]

To: SAJ

mark


9 posted on 05/31/2008 9:22:50 AM PDT by nkycincinnatikid
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]

To: SAJ

Thanks for posting this. A lot of background information that’s good to know.


11 posted on 05/31/2008 9:34:42 AM PDT by samtheman
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]

To: SAJ

mucho useful post....


15 posted on 06/01/2008 10:09:35 AM PDT by dennisw
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]

To: SAJ
It's not a bubble. I invite anyone who thinks it is to short oil. I would guess that out of all of the people arguing that it's a bubble, maybe .5% have actually shorted oil.

If I'm wrong, please feel free to tell me how much money you have put into shorting oil.
19 posted on 06/01/2008 11:23:47 AM PDT by mysterio
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]

To: SAJ
George Soros is scheduled to testify before the Senate next week. He has already publicly blamed speculators for higher prices.

That should be rich. This jerk made a fortune speculating in the currency markets, now watch him put on a big show about how it's evil. Pure scum, Soros is.

20 posted on 06/01/2008 11:27:09 AM PDT by ovrtaxt (This election is like running in the Special Olympics. Even if McCain wins, were still retarded.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]

To: SAJ

bump


21 posted on 06/01/2008 11:35:18 AM PDT by MileHi ( "It's coming down to patriots vs the politicians." - ovrtaxt)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]

To: SAJ
Could you kindly provide a link to this article (the original post on this thread)? You provide a link to John L Williams site http://www.wtrg.com/, but not to the actual article on that site.
22 posted on 06/01/2008 11:49:10 AM PDT by ThePythonicCow (By their false faith in Man as God, the left would destroy us. They call this faith change.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]

To: hiredhand

Please read when ya have time .........

Stay safe !


35 posted on 06/27/2008 3:32:41 PM PDT by Squantos (Be polite. Be professional. But, have a plan to kill everyone you meet)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]

To: SAJ
The mechanism works like this: A refiner approaches a producer that has crude oil at Cushing and offers $100 per barrel for oil. The producer responds that he has the oil, but isn't willing sell it for yesterday’s $100 price. Rather the producer asks $105 or something close. The producer’s logic is simple. It costs far less than a dollar to store a barrel of oil for a month. He can realize almost all of the $5 increase in price that he sees in the futures market. To do so he could sell a futures contract at $105 for July delivery and leave his oil in storage until then. The storage cost would be under $1 per barrel and the $105 is a sure thing as he can make delivery in July. The refiner needing the oil now must respond with an offer of at least the futures price less the storage cost. The result is that the futures market has moved the spot or cash price up by almost $5 per barrel.

This is correct. However, the article neglects to mention one more thing: a higher spot price for oil is going to reduce spot demand, which means that there are going to be fewer people willing to buy oil on the spot market. That means people in possession of physical oil aren't going to be able to sell as much as they would before, which would result in a physical inventory buildup.

So if the futures market is causing a bubble in the spot market, there must be a buildup of inventories. However, there isn't one. Inventories right now are about where the always are during the summer.

Hence it doesn't look to me like there's a bubble going on right now.

38 posted on 06/30/2008 10:16:15 AM PDT by curiosity
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson