Posted on 05/21/2008 12:51:44 PM PDT by meandog
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama has opened an 8-point national lead on Republican John McCain as the U.S. presidential rivals turn their focus to a general election race, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.
Obama, who was tied with McCain in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup last month, moved to a 48 percent to 40 percent lead over the Arizona senator in May as he took command of his grueling Democratic presidential duel with rival Hillary Clinton.
The Illinois senator has not yet secured the Democratic presidential nomination to run against McCain in November.
The poll also found Obama expanded his lead over Clinton in the Democratic race to 26 percentage points, doubling his advantage from mid-April as Democrats begin to coalesce around Obama and prepare for the general election battle with McCain.
"Obama has been very resilient, bouncing back from rough periods and doing very well with independent voters," pollster John Zogby said. "The race with McCain is going to be very competitive."
The poll was taken Thursday through Sunday during a period when Obama came under attack from President George W. Bush and McCain for his promise to talk to hostile foreign leaders without preconditions.
Obama's gains followed a month in which he was plagued with a series of campaign controversies and suffered two big losses to Clinton in Pennsylvania and West Virginia.
The poll was conducted after Obama denounced his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, who made a series of public appearances that rekindled a controversy over his inflammatory comments on race and religion.
Obama also survived a furor over his comments about "bitter" small-town residents who cling to guns and religion out of frustration over their economic concerns.
Obama edged closer to clinching the Democratic nomination on Tuesday when he split two nominating contests with Clinton, beating the New York senator in Oregon and losing in Kentucky to gain a majority of pledged delegates won in state-by-state nominating contests.
The results put him within easy range of the 2,026 delegates needed for the nomination. Just three Democratic nominating contests remain before voting concludes on June 3.
OBAMA BETTER ON ECONOMY
The poll found Obama was seen as a better steward of the economy than McCain, leading 48 percent to 39 percent. McCain led Obama by 3 points last month on an issue that is certain to be crucial in their campaign.
Obama led McCain among independents, 47 percent to 35 percent, and led among some groups of voters who have backed Clinton during their Democratic primary battle, including Catholics, Jews, union households and voters making less than $35,000 a year.
McCain led among whites, NASCAR fans, and elderly voters. McCain led with voters who believed the United States was on the right track, and Obama led with the much higher percentage of voters who believed it was on the wrong track.
"Clearly voters are looking for change. Every problem Obama has had in consolidating his base and reaching to the center, John McCain has the same sort of problem," Zogby said.
"It's McCain's lead among voters over the age of 65 that is keeping him within shouting distance of Obama," he said.
The poll found Clinton, who has shrugged off calls to quit the Democratic race, tied at 43 percent with McCain in the national poll. She led McCain by 47 percent to 40 percent on who would be the better manager of the economy.
Obama and Clinton have refrained from attacking each other in recent weeks as Obama has turned his focus to McCain.
But Zogby said the attacks on Obama by Bush and McCain, who have been critical of his willingness to talk to leaders of countries like Iran, did not appear to hurt Obama. If anything, he said, it reminded voters of McCain's ties to Bush, whose approval rating is still mired at record lows.
"The president is so unpopular. To inject himself into a presidential campaign does not help John McCain, particularly when McCain is tied to Bush," Zogby said.
The national survey of 516 likely Democratic primary voters had a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points. The poll of the national race between McCain and the two Democratic contenders surveyed 1,076 likely voters with a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
(Editing by Doina Chiacu)
(For more about the U.S. political campaign, visit Reuters "Tales from the Trail: 2008" online at blogs.reuters.com/trail08/)
Zogby poll.
Zogby?
I guess its a lock for McCain.
It’s meaningless; ask Presidents Gore and Kerry.
(And I barely tolerate “maverick” McCain; may or may not vote for him.)
It’s not a lock for McCain until Dick Morris predicts an Obama victory.
And remember that “President” Dukakis had a 17 point lead in polls in the summer of ‘88.
I don't care what the polls say, there's probably five percent of all Americans that'll tell the pollster “Yeah, I'll vote for the Negro - ER, black fella.” But when the curtains close and he's in that voting booth by himself, he's going to go the other way.
On top of that, there's plenty of folks who'll say “I'm not voting Republican” today (summer muscle) but when push comes to shove and they really visualize Obama sitting down with Achmadinijad, or standing up to Kim Jong Il, they'll change their minds.
If I was a betting man, I'd be loading up on Insane McCain.
This is Reuters/Zogby. It is a “get out of the race Hillary, Obama can win poll.” It’s target is the superdelegates.
Thought Zogby was the preferred among conservatives...Rush Limbaugh is always using his figures, so is Hannity.
This is a sad showing for a guy who is plastered all over the news in glowing and reverent tones every night.
The pulse I have on America, and this is regardless of how I feel about McCain, he will win at least 40 states against Obama.
I don’t hate him. I just lump him in with the other Liberals.
Zogby used a real person to ask questions, which may skew responses. Rasmussen, who uses electronic polling, has Obama up by 4 when third parties are included.
At this time of the year back in 1988, Dukakis had a 20 point lead over Daddy Bush. So much for early polls.
Zogby Special Sauce - anything to advance the agenda.
Read the phony poll. Bob Barr , is a bitter ex-repub / ACLU mouthpiece is not going to win the Libertarian nod . Barr is not the Libertarian candaidate yet but Zogby has to add him to the special Zogby sauce to get these cooked results ! These phony polls are Obama infomercials and are so sadly slanted and meant to promote OBama on the day after he got slammed in Kentucky to distract the masses for that fact .
OH PA LEASE! Let the Conventions take place,let’s see who the running mates will be and then let’s do an in depth scientific poll.
Most of all, the News Media has become absolutely disgusting.
My first thought as well...
Clinton demolishes Obama in Ky by 35 points and yet he has a 26 pt lead nationally? This is just so much Arab propaganda.
People will support the black guy in the poll, but I'll put dollars to dimes they pull the leaver for McCain. He'll win, but at least I can say I didn't vote for him... or the other guy...
Two days befor the election, only. He's a notorious push poller, otherwise.
It’s a push-poll timed to aid Obama’s nomination.
I think you summed it up nicely.
Polls, smolls....pointless this early.
In my more crotchety moments, the thought crosses my mind that an astonishingly high percentage of American voters have no idea who Ahmadinejad or Kim Jong Il are.
I have no data to back up this suspicion, but it would not surprise me at all.
I really really doubt that IF Obama wins, which he won’t, that it would be by any more than a point or two in the popular vote. At BEST for Obama, he’d win with 275 or 280 EV’s and 1% over McCain.
More likely, McCain beats the snot out of him.
It’s my understanding the current breakdown is about 27% Republicans, 44% Dems, leaving 29% independent.
If, for example, the 8 point lead is a 54-46 Obama edge, and McCain gets all 27% Reps, that means McCain is picking up a quarter of the Dem voters. Maybe, but doesn’t sound right. In any case it’s too early for polls, and the only one that will matter is this one.
May 21 Electoral Votes: Obama 242, McCain 285, Ties 11
Ahmadinejad plays for the Lakers and Kim Jong is that attractive actress in, can't think of the series, but sorry she's ill.
IT ain’t November yet.
Hussein Obama is going down.
Awesome video:
The same kind of terrorists who support Obama did this:
http://www.frugalsites.net/911/attack/
Never apologize for them.
Never appease them.
Never forget.
Don’t sweat it.
“And remember that “President” Dukakis had a 17 point lead in polls in the summer of ‘88.”
I guess that was until Willie Horton came around.
Conservatives wont vote for him, they will hold their noses and vote for McCain.
This is more of "keep repeating a lie and people will believe it".
If the dem's ran Clinton she might have a chance but obummer.... please. He has the black vote all 12% of them sewed up and he can keep them.
The DNC reminds me of marleys ghost in scrooge. The black vote and obama are the chains he forged link by link and now they're sunk. They know it too, just yesterday I read that the republicans will be "rigging" the voting machines so obumma wont get a fair shake in the GE. Its too funny.
I agree with you completely. Don't even have to be "crotchety". The schools these days are a disgrace. There is very little teaching of history or geography in schools now. Ipods and sneakers have taken over.
http://www.talkleft.com/story/2008/5/4/9368/31701
Best Case:
(I'm starting to think Iowa will go Obama no matter what)
Worst Case:
(I have very little faith that Obama could ever take OH, NH, or FL even in the worst case)
After all, not only will the next president automatically have war-time Commander in Chief responsibilities, but this post (<-click), while addressing taxes, helps to explain why rookie government "leaders" like Obama are actually in contempt of the Constitution that they have sworn to defend, foolishly following in the footsteps of FDR's dirty federal spending politics.
In fact, the article referenced below shows that Obama is the #1 federal spending proposer in the Senate for '08; Clinton is #2.
Obama, a big-shot federal spenderAnd this post (<-click) exposes how corrupt justices then began using FDR's politically correct license to ignore the 10th A. to unlawfully stifle traditional family values, including the USSC's scandalous legalization of abortion in Roe v. Wade. Note that the post first references two non-abortion cases in order to show Roe v. Wade in a different, troubling perspective.
In fact, consider that the states have the constitutional power (10th A.) to authorize public schools to lead non-mandatory (14th A.) classroom discussions on the pros and cons of evolution, creationism and ID, as examples, regardless that atheists, separatists, pagan-minded judges and the MSM are misleading the people to think that doing such things in public schools is unconstitutional.
The people need to reconnect with the Founder's division of federal and state government powers. The people then need to wise up to the major problems that, since the days of FDR's dirty politics, Congress has not only not been operating within the restraints of the federal Constitution, particularly where constitutionally unauthorized federal spending is concerned, but the USSC has wrongly been ignoring the 10th A. protected power of the states to address religious issues.
The bottom line is that the people need to get in the faces of judges, demanding that judges uphold their oaths to defend the 10th A. protected powers of the states to address religious issues - or get off the bench. The people also need to send big-shot, Constitution-ignoring federal spenders like Obama home as opposed to trying to send people like him to the Oval Office. The people need to get in the faces of members of Congress, demanding a stop to constitutionally unauthorized federal spending while appropriately lowering federal taxes - or get out of DC.
Lincoln put it this way.
"We the People are the rightful master of both congress and the courts - not to overthrow the Constitution, but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution." --Abraham Lincoln, Political debates between Lincoln and Douglas, 1858.
Indiana Democratic Primary
Polling Data
Final Results Clinton +1.4
RCP Average Clinton +5.0
Zogby Tracking Obama +2.0
Is anyone concerned that Obama is actually running to be dictator of the United States? Does the hatred for McCain run so deep that we would put a Marxist in the WH. The gulags can’t be far behind. One of the first things he will command to happen is to ban conservative radio. The internet will be next. Can you say Hugo Obama?
"On Election Day, Zogby predicted that Kerry would win 311 electoral votes. For much of that afternoon, he also rated the state of Virginia as too close to call. Not only did President Bush end up winning Virginia by 9 percentage points over Kerry, he won 286 electoral votes, over 3.3 million popular vote more than Kerry and, of course, re-election."
http://www.cnsnews.com//ViewPolitics.asp?Page=\Politics\archive\200412\POL20041209a.html
There can be no good news in this election--unless a replacement candidate were to appear for McCain.
Instead, it is inevitable. What part of the message that "McCain is unacceptable," as posted on this website for the last 8 years, did the GOP not understand? Instead, they chose to go with the arrogant Karl Rove message of "Where else will they go?" Stupid is as stupid does!
Don't dis those who won't vote for McCain. Criticize the candidate, his handlers, and the PTB at the RNC that trotted out on stage at the 2004 Convention a set of clearly unacceptable new "leaders" (Giuliani, McCain, Schwarzenegger) who now want to tell us that the "brand" is no good unless we accept their leftist views.
If I wanted to vote for a Democrat platform, I'd be a Democrat!
I remember that. The election looked very bleak then. It turned around after the Rebublican convention.
A little Obama information...Obama visited Oregon a day or two before the election, on a weekend, and it was reported by the MSM that 75,000 showed up to hear what he had to say. What WASN’T reported was that 55,000 free tickets were given out to a rock concent that just happened right before Obama was to show. What a way to herd the sheeple into a voting booth!!! Oregon happens to have lots of young people, students in the I5 corridor, both from Portland and Eugene, where the University and colleges are. The numbers were in the fish wrapper (The PDX Oregonian) the next day. The DEMS really know how to play the game.
bum for later
Any poll that has people saying tax-hiking spend-happy pro-amnesty crypto-marxist pro-racial-greivances Obama is better on the economy is a cr*ppy pollaganda poll or a poll of morons.
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