Posted on 05/21/2008 11:14:17 AM PDT by Dawnsblood
On Monday, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert proposed a U.S. naval blockade of Iran. In talks with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, he also suggested that nations not allow the entry of Iranian business people and senior regime leaders. Both measures are intended to prevent Iran from building nuclear weapons. “The present economic sanctions on Iran have exhausted themselves,” Olmert said, according to today’s Haaretz, the Israeli paper, in its online edition.
At about the same time that Haaretz reported the news of Olmert’s proposals, the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security released a May 13 letter from Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki to U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. In the letter, Iran proposed talks on its nuclear program and other topics, such as nuclear disarmament, the Palestinian issue, and democracy in the Balkans. “I see it as a way to start negotiations,” said Institute for Science and International Secutrity President David Albright, referring to Iran’s wide-ranging offer.
Is there anything left to negotiate at this point? After all, most everything that could be said about Iran’s enrichment of uranium has already been uttered. Most every proposal has already been made in one form or another. Mottaki, in his letter, notes his country wants “constructive interaction and reasonable and just negotiations, without preconditions and based on mutual respect.” Of course, what the foreign minister is really saying is that Iran will not stop enrichment as the Security Council has demanded.
So, despite Tehran’s defiance of U.N. demands, should we start discussions with its representatives on the problems of the world? I say, let’s talk. But let’s also impose the blockade before we sit down with the mullahs’ representatives. As Defense Secretary Robert Gates said yesterday,
The key here is developing leverage, either through economic or diplomatic or military pressures on the Iranian government so they believe they must have talks with the United States because there is something they want from us, and that is the relief of the pressure.
There’s nothing wrong about talking with repugnant and dangerous adversaries–as long as they come to surrender.
......On Monday, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert proposed a U.S. naval blockade of Iran......
In private remarks after the meeting, Speaker Pelosi said she didn’t condone piercing type body art. In spite of the fact many of her constituents have naval piercings,some even with rather large stones, a naval blockade might be harmful to ones health.
How effective would a naval blockade of Iran be? It has a Black Sea shore as well a a Persian Gulf shore along with borders with Turkey, Pakistan and Russian satellites in the Caucasus.
Sounds unworkable.
Additionally, Iran has the ability to effectively blockade the entire Persian Gulf by denying oil tankers the use of the Straights of Hormuz. 30% of the world's oil supply passes through the Straights. If you think oil at $132/barrel is bad, you haven't seen anything.
No doubt they would try to stop oil shipments. Their first salvo would bring about an end to the Iranian Navy and any others foolish enough to take on our carriers.
Oil, the only reason. No oil, no cash = very unhappy citizens.
$133.17
That’s a lot of cash to lose every day.
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General Olmert yapping with Admiral Pelosi. In the unlikely evern we're going to blockade Iran, a clear act of war, we need to take out their nuclear programs and defensive capabilities first.
Like the first Iraq war, do doubt oil would go straight up, then come down in a week or two with the realization that the threat was taken out. As far as Iran’s hints, this wouldn’t be news to the world and speculators seem to doing OK right now. Crude oil today carries a $40/bbl higher cost precisely because of the potential for disruption by Iran.
Iran would also use Shia terrorists in other countries to strike oil production and transportation.
Taking out one or two super tankers in the Straits of Hormuz with land-based Silkworms would bottleneck 30% of the world's supply of crude oil. The Iranians can blockade the United States a lot easier than the United States can blockade Iran.
Either way, it's hard to see how a blockade doesn't result in a full scale escalation.
According to the Geneva Convention, a blockade is "an act of war".
I suspect the US Navy has considered what is required to reopen the Straits.
Correct. And there are small wars and there are major wars. If the US blockades Iran and Iran responds by sinking supertankers, then it's difficult to see how the two sides aren't pulled into a major regional war. Would not be a good idea imho.
The only real option is a full-scale amphibious invasion of Iran. Iran has a population of 70 million -- and the US lacks the manpower to support an invasion.
I don’t think a parachute or amphibious landing will be part of this.
One account here (FR) relating to the Tanker War claimed that 90% of Irans military capabilities were destroyed in that conflict and the Iran-Iraq war.I can’t find the reference and I am sure the Iran would have rebuilt to avoid a similar scenario but we could put them in a world of hurt.
The only capabilities Iran needs are shore-to-ship missiles. Iran has literally thousands of those. The rest of its military assets — F14s, gunboats, etc. are completely irrelevant. The missile technology Iran has today is far beyond its capabilities in the Tanker War.
So you think a blockade will work?
It didn’t work with that other nut Saddam.
I did hear something about this but I didn’t hear why. It might simply be a contango play by Iran.
Military forces? What would those be, exactly? This isn't Playstation, this is real life, and the US doesn't have the capacity to wage a ground war in Iran if it wanted to.
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