Posted on 05/19/2008 7:40:41 AM PDT by SmithL
WASHINGTON -- Whoever wins the presidency this November, it's all but a slam dunk they'll be working with a Democratic Congress. And it probably will be a stronger Democratic majority with more votes than it has today.
Even normally optimistic Republicans conceded last week that the landscape is stacked against them after losing their third special House of Representatives election in a row, all in what had been safe Republican districts.
"A large segment of the American public doesn't have confidence in the Republican Party," said Rep. Tom Cole, R-Okla., the party's chief political operative for House races.
"It should be a really good Democratic year in both chambers," said Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report. He's one of the three most authoritative nonpartisan voices on congressional races, along with Charles Cook of the Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato, the director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.
They all predict that Democrats will add to their majorities in the House by six to 20 seats and in the Senate by two to five seats.
They add that the swing could be larger, but none expect the Democrats to gain enough to be able to push legislation past a Republican filibuster in the Senate or a presidential veto in either chamber.
It's also possible that some of the Democratic gains could come with the election of moderate to conservative candidates -- as happened last week in Mississippi. That would mean that a Democratic president -- Illinois Sen. Barack Obama or New York Sen. Hillary Clinton -- might have a hard time getting even a Democratic Congress to approve all of their proposals on such issues as health care and taxes.
"Obama can propose new programs by the dozen, but odds are the Congress won't go along with most of them," said Sabato. "There will be enough moderates in both the House and Senate to force a new president to compromise."
The prospects would be worse for Arizona Sen. John McCain, the Republican candidate.
"If it's McCain," Sabato said, "he would find his domestic policies dead on arrival. His only real influence with Congress would be in the foreign sphere."
Why the likely Democratic gains? A confluence of forces is coming together that includes an unpopular Republican president, an unpopular war, a widespread sense that the country's on the wrong track and rising costs for food, gasoline and health care. Though Democrats have shared power since they took over Congress in the 2006 election, they have yet to share much of the blame.
"The political environment is such that voters remain pessimistic about the direction of the country and the Republican Party in general," said Cole, who serves as chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee.
Another reason is mechanical: The Republicans have more seats to defend and less money to do it.
In the Senate, where about a third of the seats are up every two years, Republicans have to defend 23 seats and Democrats only 12. In the House, where all 435 seats are up every two years, more Republicans have decided to retire since losing majority control two years ago. Their party now has to defend more than two dozen open seats.
Republicans also have far less money, a reversal of fortune from earlier eras. As of last week, the two Republican campaign committees for House and Senate races had raised $108 million for this two-year cycle and had $24.5 million in cash left unspent.
By comparison, the two Democratic campaign committees had raised $160 million and still had $82 million on hand.
I expected a pony for Christmas, once......
Al Qaeda is thrilled at the DemoRAT prospects this year; nothing like having your ally win big.
Sure the dems can push past a filibuster.
There’s at least 4 RINOs in the senate who vote with them all the time. One of them is running for President, though many on FR plug their ears and babble to discourage hearing that.
I believe this can be blamed on pork barrel spending by the Republicans that were in office. They had the perfect opportunity to do things right, instead they acted like politicians. Absolute power corrupts absolutely.
Well, wait - exactly - did Republicans do when they controlled Congress from 1994 on? What did Republicans get done when they controlled all branches of government??? They increased the size of government, they passed CFR, they grossly expanded Medicare, they FAILED to fix Social Security, and they cowered at Democrat's feet and the NYTimes (same thing).
Is there ANY wonder why the American public doesn't have any confidence in Republicans? Why should we? All your going to do is live in fear of Democrats and "reach across the aisle". Rather than lead, the GOP creates the Gang of 14. Pffft...
Cornyn is so low key that most Texans don’t know him, don’t know what he has done, don’t know about his impressive resume; in short, they are tired of him and don’t know him.
Hey Tom, why don't you read what the base is saying instead of mouthing empty platitudes and the same milquetoast Dem lite BS:
http://blog.nrcc.org/comment.cfm?entry_id=400
You and your country-club buddies completely do not get it.
I sensed the trouble to come when Newt first accepted that multi-million signing bonus for his book just weeks after the Pubbies took control in 1994.
Yes, it was legal, as Rush trumpeted on behalf of Newt, but I thought it stunk to high heaven. When Newt finally backed down and accepted royalties, there was a giant sucking sound...that of his moral authority. If that signing bonus was so "legal", why didn't he fight it on principle?
Rather than get any more agitated, I'm going to borrow your ending: Pffft...
no a large segment of registered republicans is ANGRY at the Republican party.
I fully expect to see an “Incredible Hulk GOP Elephant” political cartoon crushing the GOP leadership.
They have no clue. The core is not dissilusioned. The core still has the same fundamentals that created victory in 1980, 1984, 1988, 1994 (of note that year), 2000, 2002, 2004.
People vote ANGRY they don’t vote dissilusioned.
The American people are so stupid they think turning government even farther to the left is going to solve their real or imagined woes. Brilliant strategy.
And how might that be reversed, dear Republican leaders??
1. By stating the Republican ideals clearly, forcefully and go on a full court press to get them across to the electorate.
2. Searching for and finding candidates who have a passion for the ideals and will promote them. Then supporting them, not these immoral, dishonest misfits that seem to get in the system.
3. Pointing out the rival party candidate's opposition to the ideals which we espouse. Publicize their weaknesses and their record or lack thereof. It is not dirty politics to make the voters aware of the record and stated goals of these candidates. This IS the high road!! Hiding it, refusing to state or publish,deceiving IS the low road. To refuse to keep the public informed of the facts regarding a candidate is a travesty on the political process.
Thanks, FRiend.
Close the borders and kick the illegals out; balanced budget; no new taxes or fees; eliminate pork barrel ear marks; affirm Social Security; provide a reasonable description of why we are at war in Iraq and Afghanistan and how and when we will end the war, identifying with some precision exactly who the enemy is and how the enemy represents a direct threat to domestic American interests, and committing to a foreign policy that does not include military action except in the case of direct threat to American interests supported by a declaration of War from Congress within 30 days.
Can't do that, the R's are dead. And you might expect to see a minority group of incumbent legislators splitting off before the election unless we get prompt action.
Now I wonder why, could it have anything to do with the fact they have acted like democrats for several years now.
Now I wonder why, could it have anything to do with the fact they have acted like democrats for several years now.
BINGO
Welcome to Jimmah Carter (the traiter) days all over again. Apparently, Americans have to be knocked to their knees again to realize they’ve screwed themselves and put our future in jeopardy. This time will be far worse for we have destroyers ruling from DC and foreign enemies among us waiting to act.
No s$!^, Sherlock....
We are so screwed.
Sew now, Reap later.
Fat chance of that. Because the problem is, the Republican leaders don't believe in "the Republican ideals."
2. Searching for and finding candidates who have a passion for the ideals and will promote them. Then supporting them, not these immoral, dishonest misfits that seem to get in the system.
The Republican leadership actually get along well with immoral, dishonest misfits, since they make the "system" run. You thought it was all about defending the Republic and serving We the People, dincha? Guess again.
3. Pointing out the rival party candidate's opposition to the ideals which we espouse.
When the leaders of the party don't actually believe in the ideals in the first place, it's hard plowing to get them to attack others with whom they are in fundamental agreement. The only disagreement the Republican establisment has with the Democrats is over WHO will wield the Master Ring.
Conservatives who want to destroy the Ring are therefore the enemy of both parties.
I watched/listened to John Boner on Stephi Sunday claim that the Reps could continue to be 'rat lites. Turned it off after <60 sec. Hopelessly clueless, he is.
It only depends on the IQ of the voter after all that is how they got in office in the first place.
I don’t believe that pork barrel spending had anything to do with it. If it is pork you are against then why invite the Bolshecrats in. It was the constant harping of the Bolshies and the press without any kind of response that put the Republicans in jeopardy. Bush didn’t speak up, Hastert didn’t speak up. The bully pulpit was conceded to the press.
“gop expecting tough year; democrats expect big gains in congress.”
correction:
gop expecting tough year as democrat voting machines are subject to less and less scrutiny.
Republican leaders didn’t get the wake up call in 2006, I doubt 2008 will do anything other than make them think they have to lean further left to bring in more lefties (or “compassionate conservatives as some call them).
How many knockouts does it take to convenience people they can change things.
What you said :)
They spent like there was no tomorrow, and they really didn't do anything to advance the agenda they claim to share. Additionally, they did less than nothing about the scandals that popped up during their rein.
If they lose, they deserve to lose.
I’m getting ill. I’m honestly at the point where I just want to sock away all the savings I can for the next several years while the inmates run the asylum and then relocate to a sunny Carribean or Central American country where it costs a fraction of what it is to live in the US. After all, the politics of most of those nations is resembling more and more to what we’re in store for.
I’ve loved this country. But given what it’s becoming, if I were asked to defend it I’m not sure I could. I have utmost admiration for our armed forces, but I’m honestly not sure I would be so willing to give my life to defend this express train to socialism, appeasement and hedonism. I hate feeling that way, but there it is.
I’m sure Rick Perry thought he had it in the bag, and he got 39% of the vote....
Perry and Hutchison are more visible than Cornyn. He is like a stealth candidate. Rarely seen and heard
True, but he won a strong plurality even as a relatively weak candidate. It just shows how dilapidated the Dem party is in TX.
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