Posted on 05/17/2008 8:49:18 PM PDT by txflake
COLUMBUS, Ohio (ASSOCIATED PRESS) -
The number of Republicans who switched sides to vote for Democrats in Ohio’s March 4 presidential primary easily eclipsed President Bush’s 120,000-vote margin of victory in the state that decided the presidency four years ago, documents released Monday show.
Although a small portion of total voters, the 173,000 people who previously voted Republican but voted Democratic in the primary could be an important group in the November election, when Ohio is again expected to be crucial.
The party-switching in 85 of Ohio’s 88 counties with data available could be a sign of excitement about Democratic candidates Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama. But not all of these voters can be counted on to again vote Democratic against presumptive Republican nominee U.S. Sen. John McCain.
Some of the crossover voters felt their choice counted more on the Democratic side because McCain had all but won the Republican nomination. Some said they disliked Clinton so much that they wanted to vote against her. And some of the wild-card voters sought by both sides are still torn, but they voted in the Democratic contest to try to make sure each party had a nominee they could potentially support. The reasons were varied and complex.
“I could not stomach to have another Clinton in the White House,” said Karen Purdy, one of the Republicans who switched. “I thought the country needed a fresh start and I thought Obama could do that.”
Purdy, of Elida in traditionally Republican Allen County in northwest Ohio, doesn’t know which candidate will get her vote in the fall. Her husband, Dennis, switched to help out Obama as well but is voting for McCain in November.
Republicans switching sides represented roughly 8 percent of the 2.2 million Democratic ballots that were cast in Ohio in a contest in which Clinton beat Obama by about 10 points. About four of every five voters who switched parties for the primary went from Republican to Democrat.
The election shattered Ohio primary turnout records, with about 3.5 million people voting - or about 45 percent of registered voters.
Democrats have pointed to high turnout across the nation as a sign that voters are discouraged with the Republican majority in Washington and eager to vote for Democratic candidates who would both make history. Clinton, whose campaign is now on the ropes after a large defeat in North Carolina and a slim win in Indiana, would be the first female president. Obama would be the nation’s first black president.
Interviews with crossover voters in Allen County showed a wide range of reasons for the switch.
The county, which has twice voted for President Bush by a two-to-one margin, was one of several previously Republican-dominated counties that had more Democrats than Republicans after the primary, due largely to the number of newly registered Democratic voters.
Voters in Ohio may choose a ballot from either party but generally must sign a statement saying they uphold the principles of that party. Once voters choose a particular ballot, they are considered members of that party.
Allen County went from having 5,527 registered Democrats before the primary to 14,503 after. Republicans went from 14,115 to 13,379. The county had 1,500 voters switch parties - 1,399 of them went from Republican to Democrat.
Democrats are banking on voters such as Janet and Tom Stalter of the Lima area, who have voted Republican for 50 years but switched in March to vote for Obama.
“We just decided we like Obama the best of the three and we think he can help our country,” said Janet Stalter, who quipped that her die-hard Republican grandfather was probably rolling over in his grave as she spoke. Clinton wouldn’t have gotten them to switch: “We’ve had enough of ‘slick Willy’ so to say.”
But Carla Zerbe is the kind of crossover voter the Democrats may lose unless the unlikely happens and Clinton wins the nomination. If Obama wins, she will vote Democratic if he chooses Clinton as a his running mate. If not, she will probably vote for McCain.
“I think his minister did it for me,” Zerbe said about the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, the man who served as Obama’s pastor and made several controversial statements, including that the U.S. government may have developed the AIDS virus to infect blacks. Obama has since denounced Wright - Zerbe believes for political purposes.
“It’s a matter of loyalty and a matter of trust for me right now,” she said.
Lynn Gibson is still another version of the Ohio crossover voter. The “Harry Truman” Democrat switched to Republican for the first time in his life for local races, but he doesn’t plan to vote for any of the presidential candidates.
Obama and Clinton? “They’re socialists not Democrats,” Gibson said. McCain? “He’s a Democrat-light.”
“I’m tired of voting for someone who’s the lesser of two evils,” he said.
OC will skew DNC Stats/Tabulations for at least two years, until their actuaries figure out how to ignore the data.
OC quantified ping.
Wonder what his FR screename is.
How many precincts will it take for it to be a no-longer-good idea?
OC results.
I crossed over in TX voted for Hill... (blahhhck....puke sound) just to f#$^k with the numbers....
I have voted GOP for so long here that when I requested a Dem ticket the Old Girls at the table just smirked...
Muwhahaha...
Living in a “Peoples’ Republic”, I have voted in ‘rat primaries for quite a few years as it provides the only real input to the system.
We could say that tons of Democrats switched also. But that would be four of them.
Rush could have done a better job explaining this to those of us who wanted Hillary put down, and now that the dust is settling, we need to prep for OC '12, since McCain plans for only one term.
OTOH, I wish we had the primary system the rats have. That way Crist couldn't have given us McCain.
Like a very wise freeper underlined, primary raiding is for the big boys, and this year we could have inflicted even more chaos if we'd had better forecasting skills.
I used to disdain this rat practice until I woke up and McCain was my 'man'.
Not that I won't vote for McCain. I'm just not principled anymore and want to re-gift the rats what they've been giving for the last 10 GEs or so.
What if ALL these people interviewed actually voted for the wife of the Rapist, as part of Operation Chaos, wouldn’t they have said all the sorts of things they told this reporter: “We’re voting for Obama in November,” “I just can’t vote for McCain,” etc.?
Yet Obama carried only 4 of Ohio's 88 counties. The other factor was the lack of male votes on the Democratic side. 59 percent of the democratic voters were female and only 41 percent male.
I believe that the fall election will show that the number of votes Obama got in the primary election this year will be almost the same number of votes he will get in the fall.
My Dad was one of 14 members of the Ohio Democratic Central Committee long before there was much polling. He made it a point to talk to several hundred people before each election. The people he talked to were from Republican and Democratic groups. He was always able come very close to predicting the percentage of the vote each candidate would receive. I use the techniques he taught me 58 years ago.
I have done the things Dad taught me and in 2004 my results came very close to the actual returns.
In 2000, 2002, 2004, and 2006 and 2008 both parties and the media consider my home town of Chilicothe Ohio the bellwether community. The vote in Chillicothe has for years paralleled the state wide vote.
In 2004 the media was all over this town trying to figure out how Chillicothe Ohio was going to go. Because they knew that the candidate that won Chillicothe in 2004 would be our president. It was quite close as it was state wide.
This year it is amazing. Obama will be lucky to win 40 percent of the Chillicothe vote. Right now he would lose 60 to 40. The white working class Democrats will not vote for him. It is not that they are for Hillary, they are not. They will NOT vote for Obama in the fall. They did not like Hillary but they voted for her so Obama would not win.
Some of them will vote for McCain in the fall. Some will not vote at all. The pollsters and the media think they will be like the past.. Democrats who were for the candidate who did not win the primary complained but voted for the one that did win the nomination in the fall.
This is the first year with a very liberal black candidate for the Democratic party. And a huge number of white working class Democrats will not vote for Obama. They fear him and will not vote for him. When compared to the economy, and the war in Iraq, the most important thing for these Democrats is to keep Obama from being our next president.
Normally, here in Chillicothe, one sees tons of Democrat signs for each candidate. But this year despite the large turn out there were only a few Obama signs put up by members of the largest black church, and a handful of Hillary signs. Yet Hillary got 70 percent of the vote here in Ross county.
Obama does not stand a snowballs chance in Hell of carrying Ohio. My soninlaw says the hourly workers talk at the plant where he works is all about defeating Obama. He said some 50 plus year old men who have never voted have registered to vote. They will vote for McCain. Not because they are for McCain but because they fear a president Obama
I have been closely watching elections in Ohio since 1948 I have never seen anything close to this situation Throw out the books and the assumptions based on past elections This is a brand new ball game, and neither the pollsters or the media are aware of what is going on.
Obama is going down.. and the media does not know it.
I have four years to psyche up for it.
We're not the stupid party, and if we have to get down with the sewer rats to turn it around, so be it.
A couple of concerns with Operation Chaos, the way I see it, is that with this futile push to prop up Hillary to take it to the convention for the “brawl”, many of us may have completely forgot (or were not able, if they were held simultaneously with Presidential primaries) to vote for local / state conservatives Republican nominees in the primaries.
Another possible negative effect could be that high visibility of Operation Chaos is driving many [usually young, politically apathetic and uninterested in voting] new voters to register as Democrats and vote for Obama which, in turn, will also get them to vote for him in general elections - now that they tasted the “political victory” and have a “stake” in Obama’s win in November.
I guess, detailed numbers by state could show how many Republicans have not voted in the primary elections this year vs overall registration numbers for Democrats compared with previous primaries (assuming, of course, that Republicans that registered as Democrats strictly for OC would otherwise showed up for vote as Republicans this time around).
It maybe impossible to figure this math out, but these are my concerns, along with the fact that we are looking more into messing up something in the opposition simply because Republican electoral process [and putative presidential nominee] has been so messed up itself.
Same here.
I live in the Peoples Republic of Minneapolis and I have frequently crossed over and voted in the Democrat primary for the reasons you described.
More often than not, it’s a choice between a Democrat who makes me sick 100% of the time versus a Democrat who only makes me sick 80% of the time.
But then there are the times I have voted in the Dem primary to help the least electable Dem win the primary so our GOP candidate can beat them in November.
Operation Chaos: Why Rush Limbaugh Was Right
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2011242/posts
I still wonder if, come November, it might somehow be easier for these new Democrats to... vote for Democrats? Not necessarily for the office of President, but the countless other offices up for grabs across the nation.
And we have to do it now - make them understand we will select their '12 nominee in '10 unless they close them all.
Getting the RNC to close their primaries nation wide shouldn't be nearly as hard, after this year.
VERY interesting post in #13, Common Tator... thanks!
“and if we have to get down with the sewer rats to turn it around, so be it.”
When in Rome...
I hope your analysis is correct.
You seem to be one of the very few that has a good handle on the upcoming November general election. None of the pundits and talking heads have a clue of what is going on with real people. By sometime next winter there will be a general consensus that "people lied to the pollsters" and voted their own interests and prejudices in the voting booth.
I think so, too. All my southern dem family and friends are outraged by/with him.
Yep. That’s exactly what I keep telling all the Clinton lovers around here, but they seem to only worry about the magic negro becoming prez. It ain’t gonna happen.
Almost forgot, thanks for the ping.
You seem to actually believe that those who crossed over to cause mischief, having done so will now STAY as Democrats?
What is your reasoning behind this?
You seem to actually believe that those who crossed over to cause mischief, having done so will now STAY as Democrats?
What is your reasoning behind this?
No wonder, they're called the Dinosaur media, they are clueless. Anyone going to them for news is a fool.
I might have switched over, but the poll workers all know me too well. I just looked at that RAT ballot and it reminded me of a fresh, green cow excrement patty. Then, there was a lady - Tina a very conservative woman - and if she had seen me with a (d) ballot, I'd have had to call 911.
That said, I don't think the troops marched in lock step. My wife, for example, voted for Obama because she hated Hillary.
In the fall, unfortunately, I think you'll see massive numbers of Republicans stay home. Too bad, because either of these bozos could have been beaten easily by a real conservative.
Even if McInsane wins in November I think we should still have a big “thank you god” Party!
Go figure.
Snort!
Good. Then I won't feel as guilty when I don't vote for McCain, cause I won't. Nor will I walk the streets (as I did for Blackwell in 06 and Bush in 04), nor will I contribute (as I have regularly).
I was at a Karl Rove event for McCain in Dayton. The level of apathy was astounding. No one would wear "McCain" pins or stickers. Lukewarm applause every time he was mentioned. No one I know is going to work for the campaign.
Mike DEWINE, for Pete's sake, is his OH campaign chairman. That's rich. Tag the loser to head your campaign.
Two words: Pyrrhic victory.
Sigh.
I'll break out the booze. But it won't be in celebration :(
1) Down ticket people are elected by radically-motivated voters (usually a handful). I stayed with the GOP ballot specifically to vote for the down-ticket people. But most people who don't KNOW the down-ticket candidates just by-pass them. I know my wife and son do.
2) As for registering permanently as Dems, don't think that has happened. Both my wife and son "crossed over," one for Hillary, one for Obama, cancelling each other out. Neither will be back for the Dems in the fall (thought none of us will vote for McCain. We may all vote L, then R on all the down ticket people).
This is a no-win election, like a Super Bowl with teams you hate. The best outcome is a zero-zero tie in which someone else becomes president.
My experience is that people will not vote for people they don’t know. That’s why the judge and sheriff and other candidates on the ballots have smaller vote totals as you go down the line from president.
It’s fun to watch the left tie itself in “logic knots” trying to discount the effects of Operation Chaos. Evidently this is the training they acquire at journalism school. Ignore facts that get in the way of a good left-advancing story. And create man-on-the-street interviews as necessary when inconvenient facts threaten your mission.
The rest of the Republican candidates will be lucky to get elected as dog catcher. The people of Pennsylvania blame the Republicans for our bad economy and I can't disagree with them. If the republicans want to win they better come up with a plan to drill for our own oil.
Everywhere I go, I turn the conversion I have with complete strangers at checkout and gas pumps to the question of drilling for our own oil. NO ONE disagrees with me. They are all “mad as hell and not going to take it any more”.
If you are right, there’s a keg (or your beverage of choice) waiting for you.
What is your reasoning behind this?
Not all of them, but some of them probably will due to inertia if nothing else. So, assuming the number who doesn't switch back is anything greater than zero, was it worth it?
I occasionally hear people say "Well, I'm registered X but I vote Y" That sort of inertia may keep at least a few from changing back and I don't think that is a good thing.
I've also wondered if people who didn't vote for a Republican in the primaries will feel as emotionally invested in the process come November and if that might suppress voting somewhat. Every little bit counts, you know?
Especially at the local level.
Also, Obama is still going to be the nominee. I was watching TV Friday night & an interview on the BBC came on with Mayor Bloomberg. He said that, contrary to what many people think, he thinks that this longer process will help Obama by putting all the bad out early. He said that it could hurt McCain for the same reason - essentially that he's been largely given a pass and that if his negatives come out closer to election time, it could hurt him more.
If he is right, was it worth it to fiddle with the system?
Yes, nobody is going to WIN this election, but someone will have to LOSE it.
Whoever loses in this general election will be truly "The Biggest Loser" because it's difficult to imagine how it is possible under normal circumstances for one to lose to either McCain or Obama.
I believe that the fall election will show that the number of votes Obama got in the primary election this year will be almost the same number of votes he will get in the fall.
I have a hard time thinking anything different, myself.Read between the lines of Obama's speech about his grandmother, and you have to wonder if his own grandmother will think twice about voting for him to be president.
My tagline, "Thomas Sowell for President," is actually a plea for a black conservative VP nominee - first to provide an object lesson that a black can be a patriot, and secondly to help unify the country after the anti-Obama landslide which could be in the offing. Granted that the Republicans don't have anyone like that who has a resume which would qualify him for the top of the ticket - but if he's better than Obama, what's the difference?
Affirmative Action is entirely acceptable for the position of VP; Affirmative Action based on state is already in the Constitution, so do an Affirmative Action nomination based on race instead of only based on state of residence -the simply dismiss all criticism with a reference to the 12th Amendment and a wave of the hand.
Nobody is owed the VP nomination.
This is a no-win election, like a Super Bowl with teams you hate. The best outcome is a zero-zero tie in which someone else becomes president.
If only NY's Conservative Party would grow a pair and nominate a Republican not named McCain. I wonder if they might actually win! Not likely, but they did very nearly beat the Republicans for the second line on the ballot by coming close to outpolling the Republicans' utterly hopeless choice for governor about a decade ago. In NY it's not as if my vote for POTUS would ever mean anything; even if it was the deciding vote in a close election, if he ran so strongly as to have a chance here, the Republican would surely not need NY's electoral votes.
OH YES.. Well let me explain it to those who don’t understand the political science of planning ahead with a goal of winning.
Starting in 1952 and with one exception the presidency has changed parties every 8 years. The nation is on a 16 year cycle. Only an inept Jimmy Carter and a very good candidate named Reagan could cause the presidency to change parties after 4 years. But it got back on track in 1992 with Clinton and then stayed on its 16 year cycle with Bush in 2000.
The question McCain had to ask himself was how could he prevent that cycle from occuring in 2008?
It is obvious to most who actually study poltical science that 2008 was destined to be a Democrat year. It would take situation equivelent to a Carter/Reagan situation to change that cycle. 2008 is the peak of the 16 year liberal cycle.
But what happens in 2008 if the Democrats run a far out liberal and the Republicans run a RINO. In that case the RINO has a fair chance of winning. A true conservative would have a zero chance of wining. McCain would be 72 in 2008. If he wanted to be president he had to do it in 2008 and to win he had to become a RINO.
It was obvious to all but the non thinking observers that McCain took a sharp turn to the left in 2001. Why? He had to know that 2008 would be a lefist year ... the year of the Democrat. So McCain worked hard to change his image from a conservative to full blown RINO. McCain, a man who for many years had a high conservative rating, suddenly turned RINO. I am amazed at those who wonder why he did that. Can you imagine Liberal Democrats screaming at Clinton in 1992, “Why are you running as a NEW DEMOCRAT ... you rotten dirty traitor to the liberal cause. I will neve vote for you. Sob sob” Of course not. They knew he was just doing what it took to win.
Democrats were not fooled or even surprised when a Liberal Clinton became a “NEW DEMOCRAT” in order to win. But then Democrats are realists who want to win, while conservatives are cry babies who love to pout.
All that McCain needed to win the Republican nomination as a RINO was for the conservatives to split into groups. That was quite likely too. The Religous Right was sure to have a primary candidate in 2008. The enconomic conservatives would have another and the foreign policy conservatives might even enter a third. In 2001 there was no one on the horizon who could win even half the conservative vote in the 2008 primaries. The odds of Conservatives uniting behind one candidate in 2008 were slim and none. So if conservatives split and McCain was a certified RINO, he could win the Republican nomination. Danged if he didn’t do just that.
McCain was bright enough to know he could not have won the nomintation as just one more conservative in a long line of conservatives. Wheeeee!!!! That was a hard decision for McCain to make.. don’t you think?
McCain also had to be pretty sure in 2001 that Hillary, the leftist liberal, would run and likely even get the Democratic nomination in 2008. McCain has to reason a RINO against a leftist woman... means the RINO has a good chance at success.
McCain could not have foreseen Obama way back in in 2001.. Obama was a gift from the Gods. The media made Obama the Democratic nominee. That left thee recently minted RINO sitting tall.
McCain can in no way go after the conservative votes. It would be stupid. And McCain is not stupid. Every vote he takes away from the Obama is worth 2 conservative votes.
Let me do the math. Say Obama has 50 percent of the votes and McCain has 50 percent.. It is a tied election. But McCain loses a percent of conservative voters.. that makes it 50 percent for Obama and 49 percent for McCain. But now McCain takes one white working class percentage from Obama and now Obama has 49 percent and McCain is the winner with 50. Now McCain loses another conservative percentage.. That gives 49 and Obama 49.. But then McCain takes another white working class percent from Obama and the new totals are 50 percent McCain and 48 percent Obama.
So McCain has lost two percentage points of conservatives and gained two percentage points of DINOS and had turned a tie into a 50 to 48 win. Say it happens again McCain loses a conservative percentage and gains a white working class percentage while Obama loses that percent. Now it is 50 McCain to 47 Obama.
Perhaps that makes the McCain strategy is a bit clearer to you.
What McCain has to do is get the votes of the white working class Democrats and a decent majority of the independents and he has a landslide. To do that he has to continue to look like A RINO...
Do you really believe a person who is known as a conservative could win this year? Right!
I remember you telling me I did not understand that Conservative Ken Blackwell was going to defeat Ted Strikland. I told you what was going to happen to DeWine and Blackwell and you replied that I did not understand the situation.
McCain is what I admire most in a politican and you hate. He looks ahead and does what it takes to win. I don’t admire you as much because you look ahead and go with your emotions. It is not a way to make intelligent decisions. if Conservatives were as poltically astute as Democrats they would unite behind McCain and take back the house and senate. But then that is way too much to expect from conservatives.
McCain is just playing by the Democrat rules. Ask Bill Clinton who ran as he NEW DEMOCRAT as opposed to an OLD LIBERAL DEMOCRAT how that works.
IT IS CALLED DOING WHAT IT TAKES TO WIN RATHER THAN WHAT IT TAKES TO LOSE.
CT, John McLoser isn’t that smart to plan 7 years ahead.
If you are right, then McLoser is no better than a political chameleon whose only goal is to win. Funny how that fellow Reagan didn’t stoop that low and still won the Presidency.
In reality he is a leftist opportunist trading on his POW years, his family’s militray service and his old conservative credentials to coast to victory not on the votes of conservatives, but on the votes of non Republicans.
His vision of America is a muted free speech, amnesty filled, globaloney cap and trade strangled, and no drill/no mine energy policy, which like his two Marxist rivals, will cripple this country.
He is a disloyal Republican and the worst Republican we can run in this race, considering that the fate of America is in the balance. He is a narcissitic hothead who already is above his paygrade.
He is a George Soros lapdog. You give him far too much credit for strategic thinking.
What is truly worrisome is that all three potential candidates—McLame, Obamanation, and Her Heinous-—will cause potential harm to our country, and they are pulling the wool over people’s eyes to their true intentions.
People, even here, are desperately trying to project their own hopes and aspirations unto these three losers in a bid to justify voting for any of them.
McCain's vision of America includes a permanent ruling class -- composed of incumbents, the media and the Washington elite.
Never has a presidential candidate been so much a creature of Washington.
Otherwise, why would his signature legislation be a.) an attempt to stifle free political speech, protecting incumbents and empowering the media and b.) "comprehensive" immigration reform, designed to dilute the power of citizenship and the vote?
Good points all, okie01.
Winning with an agenda to accomplish the right thing is the goal.
McCain is what I despise in a pol. And I take it you are proud of Blackwell's defeat. I find that perverse.
Anyway, Juan can try to win OH without my money or my vote. And judging from what I've seen at two McCain fundraisers, there is no support for him, even among the "centrists." So we'll see if the DINOs in OH are more disgusted with Obama than the conservatives are with McCain. Judging from the polls in NM and IA (two states McCain, in your theory, should win easily), he's in heap big trouble.
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