Posted on 05/16/2008 3:59:36 AM PDT by kellynla
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- There's no question about it, a new breed of speculator is pouring money into the oil market and helping drive prices to record levels. What's less certain is if this new money is essential to a healthy market.
Many blame record prices on Wall Street investors new to the oil market, saying they're bidding up gas prices to artificially high levels - and soaking drivers.
As oil nears $130 a barrel, some say $10 to $70 of that price is due to Wall Street speculation.
A slippery debate But that's not the whole story. Nearly everyone agrees that speculators have always been essential to a functioning market and that oil prices could be much higher without them.
What's harder to understand - and widely debated among buyers and sellers of oil futures - is the effect new speculators flowing into commodities from big-money funds like university endowments, pensions, and indexes are having on oil markets.
Some say they're good. In addition to limiting demand,they make it easier to sell oil contracts and create a larger market where prices are less susceptible to big swings following individual trades - known as liquidity in financial speak. This camp says $130 oil is justified since demand is rising faster than supply.
Others say big-fund money is making it harder for traditional oil speculators to do their job. This camp says big funds distort traditional models used to predict prices and think $130 oil is a bubble ready to pop.
Traditionally, a futures speculator bets on the direction of commodity prices and then guarantees that commodity at that price to a client. This removes some of the risk - and greases the wheels of commerce.
(Excerpt) Read more at money.cnn.com ...
ping
Want to bring oil prices down with a rush?
President Bush should immediately announce a crash program for drilling in Anwar.
Time to issue some executive orders with bite..
Well once the real-estate bubble popped, the money flowed to metal, then after the pop there, it flowed into oil and grain futures.
...And all of this excess liquidity is a product of the fed. Just in my very humble opinion of course.
“President Bush should immediately announce a crash program for drilling in Anwar.”
Since Bush cannot do that without congressional approval, there would be no impact. The market would only laugh.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/08/news/economy/senate_gas_prices/
This will help. We can all thank Enron for the loophole in the first place.
So, in year we’ll hear Congress proposing bailouts for bereft oil speculators who were duped by “Big COMEX”?
And start a new bid process opening the east and west continental shelves to drilling leases, and new leases for 30 miles off the Florida gulf coast. Add to that the streamlining new refinery permitting and nuke plant permitting. This could all be done by executive order. The psychological effect to the markets and foreign oil producers would be exactly like happened when the Alaska Pipeline was announced. Oil prices would drop overnight.
There is no oil shortage other than what has been created by current and former Congress'. There are 535 members of Congress and one POTUS that are solely to blame for the short domestic supplies. They set these policies because they wanted to. It certainly isn't the public that is clamoring for higher fuel prices. Congress and the President, primarily Congress, are responsible for the outcome of these policies. and thus the situation we find ourselves in today. They should be held responsible for their actions.
Remember come November!
Levin says : “”[U.S.] computer terminals will be governed by U.S. regulation, because the computer terminal is located in the United States,” Levin noted.”
http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/08/news/economy/senate_gas_prices/
Carolyn
Identify the top few speculators publicly and post their pictures as well as home and office addresses.
If they aren’t being greedy or doing anything wrong they shouldn’t mind.
Over the last couple of years, you couldn't pick up a financial planning magazine without an article in it that recommended a 3-5% allocation to commodities in a client's portfolio, due to the need to find assets not correlated to price movements in stocks and bonds.
There are roughly $20 Trillion in invested assets in this country. A 3% move is $600 billion. If 5% of money managers made this asset re-allocation we are talking of $30 billion of new money coming in. Most of this is NOT SPECULATION, it is a permanent investment strategy.
There is also some hefty speculation going on, which I would define as those hedge funds, money managers, etc. investing more than 5% of their assets in commodities.
Also keep in mind that until about 18 months ago, the few ways to invest in commodities directly without either buying the commodity directly and storing it, or futures contracts, was to buy one of the few mutual funds that bought you exposure, such as the PIMCO Commodity Real Return fund, which bought Treasury bonds with most of the money and also bought futures contracts.
What has really changed things the last year has been the explosion of ETF’s (Exchange-traded Funds) that track the prices of commodities directly. To accommodate these funds, the actual purchase of futures contracts is made and a formula to account for the margin factor is included.
This has caused a swelling in prices as these markets had far less liquidity than their stock and bond (and real estate) brothers. This is what the interviewed ‘floor traders’ are talking about in this article.
Raising the margin requirement is DEFINITELY NEEDED RIGHT NOW. This used to done a lot in the past when one person would try to corner a market (think the Hunt Brothers around 1980 as an example.
We are at an unusual juncture: It is definitely in an investor's interest to be able to buy some commodity exposure (it used to be that gold served the sole purpose historically) but the transition to this new way of investing has had its unintended consequences.
It is easy to throw around cheap terms like speculators, but a governmental approach to cool that speculation needs to be targeted at those that are truly speculating, not at those who are making long-term choices to diversify asset holdings. That is why the MARGIN REQUIREMENT issue is so important.
Drilling for oil in the Arctic
Drilling for oil in the Arctic is set soon to be finished. Bush just listed the polar bear on the Endangered Species list.
Bush just threw up a new much more significant barrier to drilling in Anwr. He listed the Polar Bear.Bush is not on our side any more, not even a little. All that is left is for him to announce a 6 month pullout from Iraq. I will not be surprised. Even a little.
Bush just threw up a new much more significant barrier to drilling in Anwr. He listed the Polar Bear.Bush is not on our side any more, not even a little. All that is left is for him to announce a 6 month pullout from Iraq. I will not be surprised. Even a little.
Cap-and-Trade will insure more rapid and larger price rises. As both McCain and Bush have declared for Fighting Global Warming, that is probably coming before November as a present to McCain to help him get those Democrat votes and shed those embarrassing Republican votes.
If you like $4/gal, Thank Congress
Pray for W and Our Troops
Carolyn
“Time to issue some executive orders with bite..”
Agree; long past due actually. However, Bush ain’t gonna do anything to detriment McCain’s chances of being elected. Being that McCain is a big a “Greenie” as Clinton or Obama, we conseratives are “cooked” this go around I am afraid. Our only hope is that oil/gas will go so high that our slumbering Great Unwashed will wake up and start pinging their various legislators. Only then will we actually see some real action when it comes to drilling and construction of new refinery sites. If you really want action, pray for $10 gasoline...
Put a picture of a kicking donkey on one end and an elephant on the other and that would make a great bumper sticker!
He could but he'd have to declare the oil drilling a National Security Issue and then declare a specific number of years for companies to be assured that the next President couldn't overturn his ruling.
I'm not sure how that could be done.
An excess of money chasing a paucity of goods.
I seem to remember that being the definition of inflation way back in Econ 101.
Carolyn
As I’ve said on other threads, the real issue is that the American People, full of environmentalist propaganda, believe global warming is real and that ‘we must do something’. As long as the American People believe ‘we must do something’ and that ‘doing something’ is not without economic consequences, you’ll have politicians doing things like listing polar bears.
The problem is, no one is being frank with the people that ‘doing something’ is much more than switching light bulbs or building cars that get a few more MPG. The people need to learn that ‘doing something’ that would really meet the environmentalist goals means $12/gallon gasoline, cars the size of motorcycles, 800 sq foot housing for a family of four, no airline travel, no airconditioning or heating, etc. Unless that message is hammered home, you’ll get more polar bear listings.
The republicans have lost the last 3 special elections in “safe” districts. After Nov the dems will have bulletproof majorities in the senate and maybe the house.
There will be no drilling EVER while they are in charge but the Polar Bear will be safe and President Bush will be getting his much deserved R and R
It will never happen, out elected officials and family, many of whom are stock holders in oil companies, love the big dividend checks, love the increased value of the stock, love the extra tax revenue (no conflict in owning stock in an industry they regulate, nah)....As well, the oil companies are very happy not to drill more, build more refineries...why not, profits keep going up...Hey, who cares if the little guy is screwed at the pump...Our elected officials and their families are happy and the oil companies and their stock holders are happy...whats not to like?
Wrong. The unelected bureaucrats at Fish & Wildlife deemed the polar bear "Threatened."
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