Iran’s Shifting Strategy

The New York Sun ^ | May 12, 2008 | NIBRAS KAZIMI

[Ooh-Ah]

The healing in Iraq and the deterioration in Lebanon are not unrelated. In fact, Iraq will serve as both cause and effect to Lebanon’s misfortunes. Iran, eclipsed in Sadr City, had decided to allow its sectarian acolytes to put on a show of strength in Beirut. And the jihadists of Al Qaeda’s ilk, soon to be eclipsed in Mosul, will migrate to Beirut to meet Iran’s challenge.

Five years ago, there was a hope that held Iraq as a would-be beacon for democracy throughout the Middle East, but that vision had too many determined enemies both inside and outside Iraq. Yet as the situation there darkened through the actions of these regressive forces, the spontaneous outpouring of liberty demonstrated by the Lebanese people seemed to validate the notion that democracy and liberty would take in the region, and that the hope for what Iraq may portend was not misplaced. But the Cedar Revolution, as the March 2005 events of Beirut are remembered, also had too many internal and external enemies determined to spoil the elation.

Two countries that were dead-set against Iraq succeeding were Syria and Iran. These are also the two countries most responsible for fomenting political paralysis and chaos in Lebanon.

In Iraq, the Iranians and the Syrians began a joint-partnership aimed at harnessing the disruptive energies of the Mahdi Army as a weapon by which to retaliate against America should either of them get attacked, as well as acting as a force keeping Iraq in a state of permanent disorder.

[NTHockey]

Somes to me that since both countries are determined to undermine US work in bringing democracy to such a backward-minded area of the world, that a few well-aimed strategic strikes might give them pause.

Suppose a Navy Seal team or a Marine Force Recon team were told to create as much havoc in 24 hours as possible, how do you think Syria and Iran would react?

My bet is, if they could find enough electricity and communications equipment to send a message, that they’d be mighty PO’ed. Especially knowing WHO did it but unable to find them.

[bert]

We have surrogates also.

One bombed and took out a nuclear facility in Syria and one killed a Hezbollah commander in Damascus.

It is actually happening

[A CA Guy]

Ultimately Iran wants control of the whole Middle East.

So ultimately, what are we willing to do about that as the United States?
Is it in our interest to have an Iranian controlled Middle East?

If not, there needs to be a plan on USA’s side and we need some guts in government to carry the plan out FULLY.

[Ooh-Ah]

Received email with this note from friend of Fouad Ajami about this article:

Greetings,

Nibras Kazimi’s column, “Iran’s Shifting Strategy” (New York Sun, May 12), is one of the most insightful readings of the Middle Eastern landscape to appear anywhere in a very long time. Its analysis is as subtle and shrewd as the ways of the region. The linkage he makes between Iraq’s success and Lebanon’s troubles is nothing short of brilliant. The Sun, and Nibras Kazimi, are to be commended for cutting through so much of what has been said about these matters of late. An essay that should be required reading by all those who want to understand, let alone comment on, the contest between order and mayhem in Arab and Islamic lands.

Fouad Ajami