A Perfect Calm for John McCain

John McCain has used these weeks of Republican calm to dive into the Democratic lunch pail. This strategy clearly assumes a Barack Obama candidacy. If demographics are destiny -- as the political sages keep telling us -- Democratic demographics may offer some choice cuts to the presumed Republican nominee. By dumb luck, Republicans have chosen their one candidate who projects a moderate image, hasn't alienated Latinos and offers an appealing life story to boot.

The core problem for Democrats is that Obama's backers are reliable Democrats, whereas Hillary Clinton's are unreliable Democrats. Less than half of the Clinton voters in Indiana said they would support Obama in a general election, which is a very bad sign. Add these largely blue-collar and rural whites to some swinging independents and you have a potential Big Mac Value Meal for McCain.

As the Democratic rivals continued their Deathmatch, McCain was rippling his compassion muscles before some of the wavering groups. His tour of the civil-rights battlefields and devastated New Orleans neighborhoods had zero to do with courting the black vote, which, with Obama running, would be totally out of play. The visits with poor rural blacks were choreographed to impress comfortable white suburbanites, who demand sensitivity on matters of race.

McCain's planned July address before the National Council of La Raza must be helping Mylanta sales near Democratic headquarters. Latinos have been a Clinton constituency, but as George W. Bush proved, they are amenable to voting for a friendly Republican. As co-author of the failed grand compromise on immigration -- widely scorned as weak on enforcement -- McCain can expect a warm reception by La Raza.

In making such overtures, though, McCain risks losing the tenderloin of Clinton's support -- working-class whites. Obama has done terribly with this group.

I think that a lot of folks anticipating a McCain victory in November are simply not thinking it through.

McCain could possibly win against Obama, but he does not stand a chance against Hillary.

McCain simply has no real base.

2 posted on 05/08/2008 5:24:49 PM PDT by Radix (Q. What do you call a row of rabbits walking backwards? A. A receding hare line.)

McCain will win over a badly fractured democrat party that has never acted in their own best interest.

You don't need to be the first choice to win, it is good enough to be everyone's second choice when a significant fraction feels their party has cheated them.

3 posted on 05/08/2008 5:44:05 PM PDT by muir_redwoods (Free Sirhan Sirhan, after all, the bastard who killed Mary Jo Kopechne is walking around free)

You don’t need to be the first choice to win, it is good enough to be everyone’s second choice when a significant fraction feels their party has cheated them.

Wow, are you talking about Dims or Repubes?

4 posted on 05/08/2008 8:54:25 PM PDT by Grunthor (http://www.newswithviews.com/baldwin/baldwin445.htm)

I’m talking about any electoral contest.

5 posted on 05/09/2008 1:59:00 AM PDT by muir_redwoods (Free Sirhan Sirhan, after all, the bastard who killed Mary Jo Kopechne is walking around free)

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