Posted on 05/07/2008 10:01:11 PM PDT by freerepublic_or_die
The White House's top economist said he's confident the U.S. economy hasn't dipped into recession, and expressed optimism that stimulus checks could bolster growth in the current quarter, earlier than expected.
"The data are pretty clear that we are not in a recession," Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Edward Lazear told a meeting of editors and reporters from the Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires.
Battered by the housing crisis and rising energy prices, the economy grew at an anemic 0.6% rate in the first three months of the year, the same pace as in the fourth quarter of 2007. Despite the still-positive growth, many economists believe a recession already is under way. But the official declaration of a recession would likely be made after the fact by the National Bureau of Economic Research. And Mr. Lazear said just two areas of the economy are showing the type of deterioration that the NBER would consider recession range: retail sales and manufacturing. NBER says a recession is marked by a significant decline in economic activity, lasting more than a few months and seen in real gross domestic product, real income, employment, industrial production and wholesale-retail sales.
In addition, job declines so far have been well below those of the 2001 recession, itself a mild one, he noted. "We've had increasing energy prices for a few years now, this is not a new phenomenon. And despite that we've been able to deal with it, primarily because productivity growth has been so strong."
"I would be very surprised if the NBER, looking back at this period, would date this as a recession," Mr. Lazear said. There are even indications that revised first-quarter estimates would be slightly stronger than 0.6%.
(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...
Lazear has successfully commandeered the Democratic operatives/the MSM's most potent weapon of the presidential season. Merely "talk of recession" gives thr MSM plenty of political mileage to use against McCain but which seems to have been pulled out from underneath them.
What? The Dem media pundits told us there was a recession so it has to be so ? Right ?
No businessperson in several industries I’ve spoken to in the last 60 days has said that business any better than “slow”, and most have said that it’s terrible. Even a doctor said that elective (i.e., profitable) surgery is really down.
Like all government statistics released in the last 20 years, it doesn’t really matter what they print, because it will be a complete fabrication. I can’t wait for the inflation statistics, because I really need a good laugh today. Maybe Baghdad Bob’s services can be acquired to release them. He’s probably doing pretty well for himself these days.
Recession? I was reading a number of rags and mags where they were jabbering about a DEPRESSION!!! for crying out loud. And the thing was they sounded like they were giddy at the prospect. I'm sure most arch-leftists are devoutly hoping for another depression. I can imagine the chagrin and groans at all the major leftist media outlets when the latest numbers were reported.
But anecdotal stories from your doctor and business people are good and sound sources about the state of the economy, right?
That’s right. Fabrication. Just look at the CPI. It’s full of crap. Why add in televisions and microwaves? We don’t buy those things on a regular basis. Telling me the inflation rate is only 4% is such bullcrap I can’t stand it. I don’t feed my family with tv’s and microwaves.
I’m sorry but my own anecdotal evidence suggests that things are improving. I certainly haven’t noticed less people driving or in the malls. Sure things slowed down, but why would you believe things are disastrous? Fabrication? I doubt it.
The govt. never tells the truth. Ever. I used to believe them but now I don't. Remember, the govt. is made up of politicians who all believe the truth is perception.
Things aren't too bad were I live. Unemployment is around 4% and there hasn't been much of a housing bubble. However, with the crappy financial markets and inflation spike I can see why people are irritable..
This was amazing to me because I'd never heard any financial guru say something positive about the stimullus stunt; and because almost no economists ever say anything positive in the media. If employment were 100% they'd compain that it was bound to cause inflation, etc.
It’s not a matter of anyone lying. The population is growing at about a 1.3% pace. The GDP probably *is* growing at about a 0.6% pace. That means:
1. There is more wealth in America than after the previous quarter, since the economy grew.
2. The population grew faster than the amount of wealth.
3. Therefore, the average person has less money than he did.
Personally, I think a recession should be defined by when the PER-CAPITA GDP declines, not only when the GDP declines. But there’s a difference between using misleadingly-defined terms and outright lying.
“has less money” should read “made less money.” There are several other shorthand wordings used, also.
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