Posted on 04/28/2008 9:20:06 AM PDT by saganite
The Bakken shale formation in North Dakota holds up to 167 billion barrels of oil but only about 1 percent of it can be recovered using current technology, a new state study says.
The study released Monday said current technology could lead to the recovery of about 2.1 billion barrels in North Dakota's the "middle Bakken" formation, where oil-producing rock is sandwiched between layers of shale about 10,000 feet under the ground.
"The future potential is enormous - it means we will be able to exploit this for the rest of the century," said Lynn Helms, director of the state Department of Mineral Resources, which conducted the study.
Helms released the study Monday at an annual state oil conference in Minot, where the Bakken was a big topic on the three-day agenda. The conference, limited to 1,300 participants, sold out Friday.
Ron Ness, president of the North Dakota Petroleum Council, cautioned against over-hyping the Bakken play.
"This study gives a number that by no means guarantees those are the amount of barrels we can count on," Ness said. "The Bakken rock is full of oil and companies drilling out there know that, and they know it is extremely difficult and extremely expensive."
Ness said it costs more than $5 million to drill a Bakken well, and dozens are currently producing.
"What industry is mostly concerned with is to find - economically - what is going to work in the Bakken," Ness said. "What we have right now is one big scientific experiment going on out there."
The U.S. had some 20.9 billion barrels of proven oil reserves in 2006, the most recent year available, said John Wood, director of reserves and production for the U.S. Department of Energy's information administration.
North Dakota contributed 422 million barrels of proven oil reserves to that number two years ago, before the Bakken estimates were released, he said.
The Bakken estimates are "of major importance, not just to North Dakota, but the whole country," Wood said. He believes the state and federal estimates of recoverable oil in the Bakken are conservative.
"I think the current number will grow very substantially over time as recovery factors grow and the geology is better understood, he said.
The Bakken shale formation encompasses some 25,000 square miles in North Dakota, Montana, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. About two-thirds of the acreage is in western North Dakota, where the oil is trapped in a thin layer of dense rock nearly two miles beneath the surface.
To capture oil from the middle Bakken in North Dakota, most companies "fracture stimulate" the horizontal wells by forcing pressurized fluid and sand to break pores in the rock and prop them open to recover oil.
The middle Bakken, which ranges from a few feet thick to 80 feet, is between layers of loose shale. Its rock consists of sandstone and siltstone, with microscopic pores that contain the oil. The formation is 365 million years old, said Ed Murphy, the state geologist and director of the state Geological Survey.
"That rock is as hard as the cement in your driveway," Ness said.
Wells aiming for the middle Bakken are drilled vertically to about 10,000 feet and then "kick out" for as many feet horizontally. Ness likens it to drilling through the top of an Oreo cookie and turning sideways to get to all the creamy filling.
Part of the conference, which runs through Tuesday, will focus on sharing information on drilling technology for the Bakken, Ness said.
The state study mirrors the findings of a federal study released on April 10.
The U.S. Geological Survey estimated that up to 4.3 billion barrels of oil could be recovered from the Bakken shale formation in North Dakota and Montana, using current technology.
That report was done independently of the state study, Murphy said.
"Their numbers also include Montana, ours only includes North Dakota," he said.
The federal report found up to 2.6 billion barrels could be recovered in North Dakota, compared with the state's estimate of 2.1 billion barrels, Murphy said.
"We were quite surprised the numbers were so close," he said.
Helms said the federal study focused on the performance of wells currently working in the Bakken, while the state "went back and looked at the rock."
He said the state study partially validates a study done by Leigh Price, a USGS geologist who died in 2000 before his study was published. Price estimated the Bakken held between 200 billion and 500 billion barrels of oil.
The most recent federal study does not estimate how much oil may be in the formation - only what the agency believes can be recovered using current technology.
The state study gives an estimate of what the Bakken may hold in North Dakota, in what is known as an "in-place oil resource."
The Geological Survey said about 105 million barrels of oil have been produced from the Bakken through last year. The Elm Coulee oil field in eastern Montana, near the North Dakota border, has produced about 65 million barrels of the total, the agency said.
When the Elm Coulee field was discovered in 2000 it was "by far the biggest" onshore discovery in the U.S. in 50 years, and production and reserves have been growing rapidly since, Wood said.
"Many of the related plays in North Dakota are also looking great," he said.
About 7 billion barrels of oil are used annually in the U.S., Wood said.
Ness said North Dakota accounts for about 2 percent of domestic oil production. Even with increases from the Bakken, "we're still talking about a small impact in a big picture, but still very significant to our area," he said.
I think this clears up some of the confusion about the USGS report.
Thanks for the ping
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
If everything goes as planned, we’ll have a spanking new refinery down here in SD to convert that black gold into gasoline by 2012.
I’ve read about that refinery. Is that the one the state is proposing to build and own? In any case, it’s good news if it eventually gets built. What is the proposed capacity? I seem to remember about 30,000 barrels a day.
I’ve read about that refinery. Is that the one the state is proposing to build and own? In any case, it’s good news if it eventually gets built. What is the proposed capacity? I seem to remember about 30,000 barrels a day.
I think realistically 5-10% is eventually recoverable and the oil will probably never exceed 1 million barrels a day total production but it’s still a very big deal. Exploitation is just starting to take off there.
And keep in mind that the “technically recoverable” amount will increase as technology improves, and if prices stay high
A drop in a bucket compared with the 16 Billion recoverable barrels in ANWR.
But at least this is already in the lower 48. Getting oil out of ANWR involves pipeline politics, which is a minefield all on its own.
I'm not sure what the capacity will end up being, but I do know they're claiming this will be the most expensive privately funded building project ever built in this country, and could encompass around 2000 acres. I think the total investment is upwards of 16 Billion dollars. I believe it's also been said to be planned as the largest refinery in the country when it comes online.
As a side-note, landowner negotiations are already happening, and preliminary approval has been granted for the Keystone pipeline bringing oil from Alberta to the SD refinery. Finally, some energy development.
Yet another side-note, planned capacity for this refinery is 400,000 barrels of oil a day.
Here are some related links.
http://www.grandforksherald.com/articles/index.cfm?id=74922
http://www.grandforksherald.com/articles/index.cfm?id=74881§ion=news
Thanks for that info.
preliminary approval has been granted for the Keystone pipeline bringing oil from Alberta to the SD refinery.
Are you aware of the proposal in congress to prohibit importation of tar sands oil?
You are correct but chances of getting that oil is remote in the near future.
What this report should ensure is that the Bakken region will soon be descended upon by 1000’s of liberal scientists that *will* find a reason why we can’t exploit this asset.
Some ND democrats have been floating the idea of a state owned refinery. We already have a state owned bank and a state owned mill and elevator.
There has also been talk of privately owned refineries being built and the Three Affiliated Tribes have been in the process of getting permits to build a refinery on the reservation. The land is already set aside for that one. I think this one has the best possiblity of happening.
Not if the globalists have their way..... /sarc
Had Clinton not vetoed the legislation in 1995, ANWR oil would be a reality right now. It will take ten years to bring that oil to market once drilling is approved up there.
It’s already being exploited and there has been drilling in that area for decades. In fact I believe the oil in the Bakken has been known about since the 1950’s but the technology to exploit it is only about a decade or so old and the price of oil now makes getting it feasible.
Too late, activity in the region is going hot and heavy. Anyone who tries to stop it now is going to meet fierce opposition.
Anyone who tries to stop it now is going to meet fierce opposition.
That fierce opposition would include at least one Democrat Senator, Dorgan.
That’s right. The drillers are experimenting trying to find the best methods for extraction. From what I understand, it is very tricky, mistakes are real common. EOG Resources seems to be the best at drilling success so far.
Yep, I am no fan of Dorgan’s but he is also one of only a few Democrats to vote to open ANWR.
Not the greatest news in my estimation.
The tech doesn’t exist to access the bulk of it.
Short term, even medium term, it doesn’t help.
Gotta get the cars off of oil. That simple. I’m not buying another car that gets less than 100 mpg. They can make them.
This means gas isn’t coming down for the next 10 years.
Your biggest problem is, about 50% of that car you hope to buy cannot be built or exist without oil. (Vinyl, plastics,tires,asphalt roads,steel,glass, carpet and engine.)
Looks like you won’t be buying another car unless it’s an electric with maybe 100 mile range before a recharge. Your comment that the oil production in the Bakken is typical of those who say that the oil in ANWR is only about 6 months US consumption. In other words, according to your view we shouldn’t bother looking for more oil anywhere because its not going to solve the problem. A related article says there’s as much as 350 billion barrels of oil in Iraq. Guess we should not exploit that either.
The Alaska pipeline already exists and is operating at only 25% of its design capability. As Prudhoe Bay continues to decline, we will use even less.
And the oil would just go on the world market
And that’s a problem how? In any case, as far as the Bakken goes, it’s far more economical to refine it locally which means it’s going directly into US gas tanks.
That’s going to be a huge refinery! Hopefully this will be the beginning of a trend.
Hopefully congress won’t prohibit importation of tar sands oil as they are currently proposing.
The ANWR coastal plain is about 30 miles from the Badami Pipeline. The Badami Pipeline is connected to the Trans-Alaskan Pipeline at Pump Station #1 about 40 miles to the West.
Not prohibition to importing their oil. It was to prohibit our government from buying fuel with that energy intensive ratio. The rest of us still could.
Could you elaborate on the difference? I think I may be misunderstanding congress’s proposal.
I was referring to Section 526 of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) signed into law in December 2007. Section 526 prohibits federal agencies from contracting for nonconventional, or alternative, fuels that emit higher levels of greenhouse gas emissions than “conventional petroleum sources”.
It does not effect the importation of petroleum for use by the public.
That’s the one which isn’t as bad as I thought. So the law would prohibit Federal agencies for contracting to buy any of the oil from the proposed refinery in SD?
I guess that is correct.
It gets pretty hard to define where the petroleum originated for your fuel when the refinery has multiple sources, some banned, some not.
The could claim they only used North Dakota crude oil for the government and that “bad” Canadian stuff was sold to the public. It would be tough to prove one way or the other as long as they didn’t exceed total volumes of either.
On the contrary. Start drilling everywhere you can today, and don’t stop looking.
The opportunity, however, is that we can start to move AT LEAST the commuter automotive infrastructure off of oil. We used the Arab Oil Embargo in the 1970’s do move the electricity generating infrastructure off of oil and on to coal, natural gas, etc.
I also understand that the freight automotive infrastructure is the real sore spot, since everything you buy gets trucked.
In my opinion, this is a market opportunity for automotive manufacturers to come in with an effective 100 MPG hybrid that will have viable market legs.
The cost of oil isn’t just denominated in currency either. There are real political and strategic costs, not to mention opportunity costs.
I reiterate, the difficulties are political. Those are more intractable than engineering problems, because in the latter the struggle is against inanimate matter; in the former, the struggle is against malicious stupidity.
I misunderstood. I thought you meant the politics of getting a pipeline built.
Developing the area itself is another ballgame.
Anytime the ecofreaks get a foot in the door, you have trouble. Building the pipeline in the first place was a titanic struggle against environmentalist obstructionism that was then in its infancy. They couldn't prevent the pipellne going in, but they would be satisfied to stop its being of any use.
The 167 billion barrels in this report is only the North Dakota portion of Bakken. When adding up the entire find (including Canada), the total becomes astonishingly huge. If one applies a future recovery rate of 5%-10%, as technology improves, it becomes obvious that Bakken will go a long way toward solving our future energy needs...
“Wells aiming for the middle Bakken are drilled vertically to about 10,000 feet and then “kick out” for as many feet horizontally. Ness likens it to drilling through the top of an Oreo cookie and turning sideways to get to all the creamy filling. “
Man, how the hell do they do that? What is used to turn the drilling sideways at that depth?
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