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Robert Novak: Deepening Democratic Dilemma - The Bradley Effect
Real Clear Politics ^ | April 23rd, 2008 | Robert Novak

Posted on 04/23/2008 10:07:26 PM PDT by The_Republican

Prominent Democrats only whisper when they compare Obama, the first African-American with a serious chance to be president, with what happened to Los Angeles' black Mayor Tom Bradley a quarter of a century ago. Exit polls in 1982 showed Bradley ahead for governor of California, but he actually lost to Republican George Deukmejian.

Pollster John Zogby (who correctly predicted Clinton's double-digit win Tuesday) said what practicing Democrats would not. "I think voters face-to-face are not willing to say they would oppose an African-American candidate," Zogby told me.

The escape route from this dilemma only a few months ago seemingly was indicated by the sudden emergence of Obama as an extraordinary candidate who could transcend race and ideology. But as Bill Clinton sought to label Obama as his wife's black opponent, he increasingly also has been identified as bearing the same ideological burdens that brought down Democratic nominees George McGovern, Walter Mondale and Michael Dukakis. It has gotten worse for Obama, losing every high-population state to Clinton except his own Illinois.

Obama hit a low in Pennsylvania, despite clouds over Clinton's credibility and her husband's dysfunctional campaigning. Popular freshman Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, a pro-life and pro-gun Catholic, was Obama's faithful surrogate but proved no help. Exit polls showed Obama losing 70 percent of Catholics, 58 percent of white Protestants and 62 percent of gun owners. Clinton carried union members, wage-earners between $15,000 and $75,000 annually, and people with less than a college degree. Obama was saved from total disaster in Pennsylvania by 92 percent of the African-American vote, but the reverse of the racial divide was Clinton's support from whites, especially white working women.

For the first time, Democratic loyalists not necessarily committed to Clinton are wondering whether the party's system for picking a nominee is the problem.

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: bradleyeffect; democrats; election; elections; lyingtopollsters; obama; obambi
I don't buy this RACISM problem and if it is, its not to this extent. Too many States like Maine et al had no problem going for Obama. Oregon is also in his back pocket.

PA has OLD population and MOST SINGLE MOTHERS and all the Young have left - it was custom made for Hillary. Obama made the "Bitter-Snob-Gaffe", Jeremiah Wright broke out, and then Hildabeast portrayed herself as Ann Coulter to complete decieve the Conservative Voters.

Still its only 10%.

Its not so wide spread that as soon as voters see a pollster, they are so scared that they have to lie about voting for Obama. Nobody reasonable can believe that. Zobpee is full shi*.

1 posted on 04/23/2008 10:07:28 PM PDT by The_Republican
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To: The_Republican

If you want to see racism, you’ll find it, even if it has to be made up from whole cloth.


2 posted on 04/23/2008 10:20:55 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (McCain could never convince me to vote for him. Only Hillary or Obama can!)
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To: The_Republican
Democratic loyalists...are wondering whether the party's system for picking a nominee is the problem.

No problem--No way! It gave them John Kerry the last time. What's wrong with that?

3 posted on 04/23/2008 10:24:17 PM PDT by Rudder (Klinton-Kool-Aid FReepers prefer spectacle over victory.)
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To: The_Republican

the democrat racism here in SW PA is real, but I love that everyone is useing the double digit propaganda. 9.4% isn’t “double digits”.


4 posted on 04/23/2008 10:24:34 PM PDT by Soliton (McCain couldn't even win a McCain look-alike contest)
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To: The_Republican
BTW, I met Bob at the “Midwest Republican Leadership Conference” in Des Moines while I was an advance man for Al Haig’s short-lived presidential campaign. He is the curmudgeon's curmudgeon! If you tell him the sky is blue, he'll walk out of the hotel and check to see if you're lying to him. That's probably why he's been in the business longer than most of his coworkers have been on this Earth and has forgotten more about reporting than they'll ever know!
5 posted on 04/23/2008 10:26:09 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (McCain could never convince me to vote for him. Only Hillary or Obama can!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

cThanks for sharing. He is one of my favorites. That’s why I put his name in the title! To let everyone know, serious article! Geroge Will, Bob Novak, Peggy Noonan, Pat Buchanan, Fred Barnes...........Libs can’t match up with these guys! JMO!


6 posted on 04/23/2008 10:29:17 PM PDT by The_Republican (Ovaries of the World Unite! Rush, Laura, Ann, Greta - Time for the Ovulation!)
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To: Soliton

Hmmm, then 9.41% is triple digits.


7 posted on 04/23/2008 10:35:43 PM PDT by razorback-bert (If yer gunna regret this in the mornin, we kin sleep til afternoon.)
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To: razorback-bert

yes and I have a six figure salary. 00,000.0


8 posted on 04/23/2008 10:37:43 PM PDT by Soliton (McCain couldn't even win a McCain look-alike contest)
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To: Soliton

I bet you with 8 figures 000,000.00


9 posted on 04/23/2008 11:03:17 PM PDT by razorback-bert (If yer gunna regret this in the mornin, we kin sleep til afternoon.)
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To: Soliton

Well, you used two digits for that 9.4% There is a dot in there but it is still “double digit.”


10 posted on 04/23/2008 11:19:43 PM PDT by arthurus
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To: The_Republican
Obama losing 70 percent of Catholics, 58 percent of white Protestants and 62 percent of gun owners.

On the positive side, Obama can crow about the fact that he was proven right after all. These hick voters clung to their religion and guns instead of clinging to him.

11 posted on 04/23/2008 11:25:13 PM PDT by CardCarryingMember.VastRightWC
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To: The_Republican
Obama was saved from total disaster in Pennsylvania by 92 percent of the African-American vote but the reverse of the racial divide was Clinton's support from whites, especially white working women.

Courtesy comment:

Lets see if I can figure out this biased/racism scam.

92% of all blacks vote for Obama and there is no racism involved.

62% of white women vote for Hillary and there is no gender bias.

A white man votes for McCain and he is classified as an ignorant, bitter and biased voter with a racists intent.

OK now I see only white men can be biased and racists.

12 posted on 04/23/2008 11:27:24 PM PDT by OKIEDOC (Kalifornia, a red state wannabe. I don't take Ex Lax I just read the New York Times.)
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To: The_Republican
"I think voters face-to-face are not willing to say they would oppose an African-American candidate," Zogby told me.

Maybe the issue with Dem voters isn't racism.

Maybe the issue is race-ism.

Maybe it's getting clearer to them that an Obama administration would be one long marathon of his many failures dutifully spun by an adoring press as being the fault of racist white Americans such as themselves.

"Katie Couric here. President Obama's approval rating hit an alltime low, just two days after his sixth nominee in a row for Attorney General had to bow out due to revelations about coziness with terrorist front organizations. To find out why his popularity is so low, I'm turning to my co-anchors Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson, to see if they have any theories as to why."

13 posted on 04/23/2008 11:35:23 PM PDT by CardCarryingMember.VastRightWC
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To: The_Republican

what bullshite

folks don’t like Obama largely because he is an antiwhite racist, not because he is black

and that’s the just the beginning


14 posted on 04/23/2008 11:39:55 PM PDT by wardaddy (I wish a real conservative had the balls to win that The Witch does)
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To: The_Republican
For the first time, Democratic loyalists not necessarily committed to Clinton are wondering whether the party's system for picking a nominee is the problem.

Day - um! These people are SLOW!

15 posted on 04/23/2008 11:49:06 PM PDT by Rummyfan (Iraq: it's not about Iraq anymore, it's about the USA!)
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To: wardaddy
"and that’s the just the beginning"

By Golly, by Gum, you hit it out of the park with that response!

Hussein ain't seen nothin yet!

16 posted on 04/23/2008 11:50:16 PM PDT by JDoutrider (No 2nd Amendment... Know Tyranny)
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To: wardaddy

I suspect complicity somewhat of the media with the demons campaign. The media talks up obama for the sake of gaining viewers, readers etc. Because he is being considered a novelty. But just when it really looks like it is actually in his grasp to become the Demons candidate, they pounce on him for the benefit of the most evil of them all. She’s calling in all her debts now just before the big show. JMT!


17 posted on 04/23/2008 11:52:55 PM PDT by Always Independent
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To: The_Republican
Racism from Barack! Photobucket
18 posted on 04/23/2008 11:54:22 PM PDT by xuberalles ("Barack Obama: Change Is A Dime Bag!" (http://www.cafepress.com/titillatingtees))
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To: OKIEDOC

“OK now I see only white men can be biased and racists.”

As well as abusers, sexists, rapists, villans, etc. That is the mantra of the political left. Oh, and of course, lefties can only be victims, never perps. Clear, isn’t it?


19 posted on 04/24/2008 12:21:32 AM PDT by ChicagahAl
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To: arthurus

0ne digit, one decimal


20 posted on 04/24/2008 12:35:22 AM PDT by Soliton (McCain couldn't even win a McCain look-alike contest)
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To: The_Republican

I tend to think the problem in American politics is that the Republican Party is not truly conservative but the Democratic Party is truly liberal. History will judge this as a good thing or a bad thing.


21 posted on 04/24/2008 1:19:10 AM PDT by kipita (“Love” is to humanity as gravitons are to an infinite # of universes.)
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To: CardCarryingMember.VastRightWC
Maybe the issue with Dem voters isn't racism.

Yeah, think that "clinging" crack had anything to do with 70% of the Catholic vote taking a hike? It was the modern, double-domed materialist's equivalent of James G. Blaine's famous snark about "rum, ruin, and Romanism". Bye, Jim, you're not going to be President.

22 posted on 04/24/2008 1:46:01 AM PDT by lentulusgracchus ("Whatever." -- sinkspur)
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To: The_Republican
I don't buy this RACISM problem and if it is, its not to this extent.

I'd say if racism is involved, it was due to Obama's unapologetic embracing of open racists and terrorists that was the major problem. You can't fool all of the people all of the time. Obama's maximized that resource (fools) and it's not enough, evidently.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

23 posted on 04/24/2008 2:41:23 AM PDT by Caipirabob (Communists... Socialists... Democrats...Traitors... Who can tell the difference?)
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To: The_Republican

I was called a racist on here for suggesting that there were, on both sides, voters who WOULD and WOULD NOT vote for Obama BECAUSE he is black.

Sheesh.

It is not to say racism is a big problem in this contest which it is not, IMO. I was stating a reality of human nature, the way that there are people out there who will or will not vote for Clinton BECAUSE she is a woman.

The problem is Obama is an extreme leftist, liberal marxist who has not done a thing in his entire career.

Heck, people vote or don’t vote for someone because they don’t like their hair.


24 posted on 04/24/2008 3:40:53 AM PDT by rlmorel (Clinging bitterly to Guns and God in Massachusetts...:)
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To: The_Republican
This is the problem:


25 posted on 04/24/2008 3:43:39 AM PDT by rlmorel (Clinging bitterly to Guns and God in Massachusetts...:)
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To: rlmorel
Yep. There were reports of Hillary canvassers in NE Philly encountering folks who said they were voting against "that N-----" more than voting for Hillary. Of course, the attitude in the black nabes in said city were probably the same FOR Obama.

You can't discount the effect of race, especially in a state with alot of elderly folks with little education, to say nothing of the neer do wells in the ghetto of any age.

26 posted on 04/24/2008 3:44:28 AM PDT by Clemenza (I Live in New Jersey for the Same Reason People Slow Down to Look at Car Crashes)
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To: The_Republican

>> Democratic loyalists...are wondering whether the party’s system for picking a nominee is the problem.

The deeply flawed MESSAGE? Nope, can’t be that. The message is just NEVER the problem with these guys, is it?


27 posted on 04/24/2008 3:46:29 AM PDT by Nervous Tick (I'm not voting FOR John McCain -- I'm voting AGAINST Hillary/Obama)
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To: lentulusgracchus

I tend to find that in the Philly area, blue collar Catholics have a “history” of tensions with their black neighbors that goes both ways in terms of hostilities. Don’t know about the rest of the state.


28 posted on 04/24/2008 3:46:33 AM PDT by Clemenza (I Live in New Jersey for the Same Reason People Slow Down to Look at Car Crashes)
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To: The_Republican

Good Grief!! He let Libby HANG for NO REASON!! I Have NO RESPECT for Novak!


29 posted on 04/24/2008 6:26:02 AM PDT by Ann Archy (Abortion.....The Human Sacrifice to the god of Convenience.)
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To: Caipirabob

“I’d like to buy the world a coke....”


30 posted on 04/24/2008 8:24:51 AM PDT by wardaddy (I wish a real conservative had the balls to win that The Witch does)
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To: ChicagahAl
“OK now I see only white men can be biased and racists.”

As well as abusers, sexists, rapists, villans, etc. That is the mantra of the political left. Oh, and of course, lefties can only be victims, never perps. Clear, isn’t it?

Comment:
I think many white men especially those who do not have to squat while peeing are waking up to find that they are seen by most liberals as the problem not the cure for what ails this country.

The liberals which consists of hate America first scumbags,racists, racists enablers, racists baiter's, communists who have declared for Obama, communists who have declared for Hillary, spurned NOW dames, Lesbians, Queers, trans engendered,Christian haters and the list go's on make up a majority of the all inclusive Democrat party.

However,the sign reads No Real White Men Need Apply to the Democrat Party.

31 posted on 04/24/2008 8:33:00 AM PDT by OKIEDOC (Kalifornia, a red state wannabe. I don't take Ex Lax I just read the New York Times.)
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To: Clemenza
You can't discount the effect of race, especially in a state with alot of elderly folks with little education, to say nothing of the neer do wells in the ghetto of any age.

I only have anecdotal evidence, but there are plenty of white senior citizens, male and female, that live in strong Democrat areas that will not vote for a woman or a minority. It's not racism/sexism, it's generational. They may not have college degrees, but they graduated from high school at a time when the 3 R's were taught, and taught well.

Given the razor thin margins of political races today, even 50,000 could determine the difference in a state.

32 posted on 04/24/2008 8:44:01 AM PDT by Night Hides Not (Forget it...I'll never be able to pull the lever for McCain!)
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To: lentulusgracchus
James G. Blaine's famous snark about "rum, ruin, and Romanism".

Almost. It was "Rum, Romanism and Rebellion" - a characterization of the Democrats as being anti-Temperance, pro-Catholic, and having had Southern sympathies during the Civil War and after. And they weren't Blaine's words. What actually happened was he was at a NY fundraiser, and one of the after-dinner speakers was a long-winded, bloviating, bigoted Protestant minister. Blaine and the other GOP attendees were so mind-numbingly, eye-glazingly, bored with the neverending speech that they didn't hear the anti-Catholic dig, and thus missed any chance to immediately repudiate the speaker. But a reporter who was actually still alert got a big scoop out of the remark, and Blaine narrowly lost NY state and with it the entire election. He may have lost anyway, because Catholics were already suspicious of him. In spite of having an Irish-American Catholic mother and a sister who was a nun, he was the prime mover behind the no-public-funds-for-religious-schools "Blaine Amendments" passed by many states, that were seen as being aimed against parochial schools.

The "Mugwump" Republicans who campaigned on behalf of Democrat Grover Cleveland didn't exactly help him either! (Wonder how many GOP Mugwumps for Obama or Hildebeest we'll see this year?)

"Blaine, Blaine, James G. Blaine, the continental liar from the State of Maine!" (The GOP response, referring to Cleveland's fathering a child out of wedlock, was: "Maw! Maw! Where's my Paw? Gone to the White House, Haw Haw Haw!")

33 posted on 04/24/2008 11:32:22 AM PDT by CardCarryingMember.VastRightWC
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To: CardCarryingMember.VastRightWC
Ah, yes, American politics -- once so couth and mincing, now deracinated and Madonna-ized. Oh, well. Quam cito transit, et cetera.
34 posted on 04/25/2008 9:36:15 PM PDT by lentulusgracchus ("Whatever." -- sinkspur)
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