Posted on 02/14/2008 8:33:47 PM PST by Matchett-PI
In the Democratic Party there are 796 "Super Delegates." These are men and women who are delegates to the Democratic National Convention in Denver by virtue of their position, not because they were elected in primary or chosen in a party caucus.
Officially, within the Democratic National Committee rules they are known as "Party Leaders and Elected Officials" (PLEOs) but Super Delegates stuck. PLEOs did not.
Mullpal Lanny Davis has reminded us that Super Delegates were never intended to be pledged to one candidate, but were the insiders who could undo a bad decision by those pesky voters in primaries and caucuses.
Yesterday, Mr. Davis (with whom I have appeared as a sparring partner many times over the past decade) pointed out that in an earlier age Democratic Party insiders chose as the Party's nominee Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Adlai Stevenson, and John F. Kennedy.
As we pointed out here on Wednesday, Barack Obama - following Tuesday's "Potomac Primary" has assumed the lead in the actual delegate count.
The way the delegates are awarded in these Democratic primarie, unless one candidate gets 80% of the votes the awards tend to be 54% to 46% one way or the other.
Thus, according to CNN's count, Barak Obama has 1,096 elected delegates (of the 2,025 needed) while Hillary Clinton has 977 - 119 fewer and that ration isn't likely to change much.
While Super Delegates have no requirement to support any candidate prior to the opening of the Convention, CNN reports Obama has the pledged support of 157 and Clinton has 234 closing the gap between them to only 42 delegates.
As there are 796 Super Delegates and only 391 have pledge to support one of the candidates, that leaves 405 Super Delegates sitting around waiting for offers.
So long as Hillary Clinton stays inside of 405 delegates, the Supers can turn the tide.
But, they won't just swoop onto the floor and wrest the nomination away from Obama because that would cause a riot in Denver. Here's what they will do: You may remember that Michigan and Florida were stripped of their delegates because they ignored the DNC dictum that thou shalt not have a primary election earlier than February 5.
They did and Hillary won both.
The Clintons will arrange for their Super Delegates to reach down to the elected delegates who are members of the Rules and/or Credentials Committees over whom they have some control (If you are a sitting Democratic US Senator or Governor and you call an elected delegate from your state, that elected delegate will take your call).
The Super Delegates will instruct the elected delegates on those committees to seat delegations from Florida and Michigan proportionate to the votes Obama and Clinton received.
I guarantee you that the proportions will be just enough to give the nomination to Hillary.
And 1. The Clintons will be able to claim they had nothing to do with it.
2. The Supers will be able to claim they were just doing their jobs by not disenfranchising voters in two crucial states.
3. Just as you read, it is so complex that no one will be able to explain it in the required 12 seconds on television.
Sending Lanny Davis out yesterday to begin the process of inoculating Democrats against Super Delegate skullduggery is only the first step. Between now and August there will be a constant drumbeat that Michigan and Florida cannot be shut out and the Clintonistas will be working the phones to be certain everyone knows their role.
Or else.
On the GOP side, Mitt Romney's endorsement of John McCain (and the release of his delegates who are not bound under state law) will push McCain toward the 1,000 delegate number. On the Republican side 1,191 is the magic number to reach a majority.
Mike Huckabee, by refusing to leave the race, thus goes from running a quixotic and marginally heroic campaign against McCain, to being a laughing-stock or worse, a disloyal Republican.
She wants to be selected, not elected.
Blacks would sit home and NOT vote if she wins after a thing like that IMO.
((((PING))))
More:
“Make book on it: no matter who wins the voting, Mrs. Clinton will be the nominee.” ~ Rush 02/12/2008
7 posted on 02/12/2008 5:45:29 PM EST by Matchett-PI
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1969279/posts?page=7#7
“Rush is right. 800 of those delegates to the convention are party officials.
How many FBI files do you think Hillary and Bill have on them. It was nice to have the goods on Republican party officials, but it was a mandatory that the Clintons have the goods on Democrats.
They will either give the nomination to Hillary or there will be a huge increase in the number of former Democratic party officials serving time in our prison system.
Hillary will win Ohio and Texas as well as Pennsylvania. ..”
16 posted on 02/12/2008 5:52:12 PM EST by Common Tator
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1969279/posts?page=16#16
“....With his wins in Virginia, Maryland and The District, Barack Obama is now officially on a roll. If the Clintons can’t find some way to stop him and stop him quickly, the Democratic race may be over much sooner than we thought only a week ago.
Here’s something we know: A Clinton cornered is a very, very dangerous political animal. Obama’s supporters would be wise not to start celebrating too early.”
~ Rich Galen - 02/13/2008 Mullings.com http://www.mullings.com/dr_02-13-08.htm
I agree. bttt
I guess Rich Galen hasn’t heard that Al Sharpton will lead a March ( A riot) if that happens.
Maybe. But this logic fails to take into consideration that many of those superdelegates will feel the shift in the D power base away from the Clintons toward Obama and the next generation. Many who are elected themselves will decide based on “what’s in it for me”.
As the mortician says, “Remains to be seen”
Good point. These delegates have no loyalty to the Clintons. The question is, do the Clintons have some leverage they could use to influence them? I think if the delegates see Obama as a lifesaver from the Clinton’s sinking ship, they’ll take Obama.
See post #4 (FBI files)
Yes, but there has to be something in those files to use. Just because you have a file doesn’t mean there’s something in it that can be used as blackmail.
Heck, there’s an FBI file on ME, but I don’t have anything in it (that’s true) that could be used for blackmail.
I mean, AFTER the riots
It seems to me that many of them seem to see this as freeing themselves from the stench of the Clinton machine.
You'll have to leave a message, as he's on a speaking tour in the islands at the moment.
The cops that beat up Rodney King were just "doing their jobs" too. That didn't stop the riot. The dems have a problem. =o)
Blacks have ALWAYS had a problem with the Democrats since they were their actual slave owners or those that hosed them away from schools.
Time for blacks IMO to wake up and move on.
They deserve better than the Democrat party for sure.
So, the next question is:
Hillary raised funds for:
a) the primary battle
b) the general election
Each of these pools of cash could not be used interchangeably for pre/post uses.
The (post) general funding was eported to be in excess of $40,000,000.
So if she loses/folds/drops out, what happens to these mega millions of funds earmarked for the general election????
Does her re-election committee keep it??
Does the Clinton Foundation get it ???
Do these scumbag individuals get to launder it and then put it in their pockets??
Enquiring minds want to know!!
Nope. These are Dems...they have undoubtably done things that could be in there, so just a bluffed threat could mean something.
I know the Dem's have a long history, one darkened with the KKK and lynch mobs. I also know it was the republicans who pushed reconstruction, and fought for many rights for blacks. What I just don't know, and cant seem to find any reference in any history books I’ve read, is where the idea that the Republicans are all the cliche things we are accused of being. How did the liberators get tagged as the oppressors? I just don't get it.
Fox radio news just reported Rep. John Lewis will cast his superdelegate vote for Barack Obama. He had endorsed Hillary.
This will be a very interesting election.
If Hillary grabs the nomination out from under Obama, do you think it's possible McCain will persuade Obama to switch parties and agree to be his running mate? LOL
As crazy as this election year is turning out to be, nothing would surprise me.
I think that’s the interesting sort of asymmetry to the super delegate quandary.
If you put yourself in their position - they could vote Obama and fear a Clinton victory and the retribution that would follow, but... If they tell Clinton they will vote for her and then simply vote Obama anyway on the floor - Clinton will not know until it’s too late. And if Obama is the nominee, even if he doesn’t get to the White House he gets to pick the party chairman. Thus those that voted Obama anyway would not have much to fear.
I really shouldn’t be spinning so many brain cells handicapping the internal mechanics of the Democratic Party - but it is paramount, to me, that Hillary be defeated. All the better if it is in the primaries.
Hope this is correct. She will then lose to McCain because even Dems will smell the rat at election time.
Ah, telling the big, big lies.
It's the Rodham-Clinton way, n'est ce pas?
Yes, but you're not a career politician.... or are you? :-)
Huck was a joke from the start and it looks like he doesn't mind continuing to be a joke.The extra chromosome crowd is still occupied attacking Romney but McCain has to let the Huck voters play out and do like the rest of us and figure out who is the best of the lot.
A related cross link:
Superdelegates get campaign cash (Culture of Bribery)
boston.com ^ | 02/14/2008 | Foon Rhee via Drudge
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1970665/posts
am i reading this wrong ?
They are switching like crazy now. Those who switch to go to Obama will give others more nerve to do so too.
The Clintons are finding out who their friends are now..
I finally found something to like about the Rev. Al Sharpton
John Lewis is spoiling the plan by publicly announcing his backing of Obama “in hopes of preventing a fight at the Democratic convention.” I’d much rather Hillary be surprised by the defections. Lewis can be assured of a (Hillary) fight at the convention. Perhaps he meant preventing a fight in the streets.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1970658/posts
There won’t be any riots in Denver. Blacks might be angry, but there aren’t many in Denver, and there won’t be huge busloads coming in. Hillary’s Hispanic plan might pay off.
[There won’t be any riots in Denver. Blacks might be angry, but there aren’t many in Denver, and there won’t be huge busloads coming in. Hillary’s Hispanic plan might pay off.]
Don’t make the mistake of assuming Blacks will be her only source of hostility (and Denver has a high dose of them for the Rocky Mountain region). The communist funded anti-war crowd won’t be happy either. In paying close attention to his hoards of mindless followers, I’d guess that they possess 98.7% of all privately owned blowhorns.
Wow, that was some very disturbing reading. I completely agree they will do ANYTHING to win, it’s going to be ugly and the Obama backers will let her slide right in too, it will be a real shame. What we don’t hear and know about is all of the “background work” that is happening to make the Florida/Michigan delegates count. It will be a historically disturbing scene for the nation to witness at the Democratic Convention, and the Clinton Machine is well positioned to pull it off.
Nice...first the Dems defrauded the Reps by crossing over in our primaries, now they have to figure out how to defraud their own defrauded delegates....LOL...Hello
That's bogus. Hillary broke her promise and stayed on the ballot. Obama played by the rules. There's no way of knowing what the outcome would have been if Obama had campaigned or just left his name on the ballot. I don't think this will fly. Certainly not with black voters.
You are right, it’s not just blacks on board with Obama. It is a whole lot of liberal whites, and they will be mad if Hilary snatches victory from the jaws of defeat.
I hope FReepers read the liberal sites from time to time. You think we have issues with McCain? The liberals are berserk over this Hilary/Obama thing.
Hillary will be forced to put Obama on the ticket in order not to lose the black vote by default in the general.
But I think Obama is part of a long term strategy and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if his dark team wouldn’t find a right winger to eliminate Hillary at some point in order to elevate Obama to the Presidency.
Ya know, it’s difficult to figure out which of these Marxists would be worse. They will both give our national security information to other Marxists leaders in the world, but I think Obama may also give secrets to Muslim radicals.
If it isn’t the End Times, I don’t know what else we have to do as a culture to insure our total destruction. This election pretty much puts the sappers in place to mine the rest of the foundation loadbearers and to push the ignition button for the primers.
Tinfoil hat on while sitting in a copper cage.:)
The logic of this is totally flawed. The whole country will see the tactics you described as theft of the nomination and nobody will be fooled. If Obama takes the majority of the pledged delegates secured by votes in the state primaries and caucuses and is denied the nomination, YOU WILL SEE A RIOT IN DENVER!
“How many FBI files do you think Hillary and Bill have on them. It was nice to have the goods on Republican party officials, but it was a mandatory that the Clintons have the goods on Democrats.”
I say those superdelegates who are having second thoughts about Hillary will be back in the fold in no time once they realize that HRC has the goods on them via her FBI files. She is one slick operator. Blackmail is a *itch.
Hillary will be forced to put Obama on the ticket in order not to lose the black vote by default in the general.
100 percent agress. Obama will be forced into the Vice Presidency. Some back room agreement will be made. If this happens, I feel that the Republicans are dead in the water this election.
Well, consulting the good old history books we know a few things:
1.Accurate accounting of sources of cash and cash flow has never been a Clinton priority.
2.The Clintons, once they have their hands on cash, never, never, ever let it go. Their expenses are for the little people to pay.
Given the above, what is your educated guess?
This is a very good thing, although not enough to save the dying political parties.
Primary elections with low/no bar to voter participation are the last nail in the coffin of the 19th century "political party". The voters, maybe a majority of them, have no interest in, or conception of, the well-being of the party. It is FAR more likely that elected officials or other big shots do.
Take the New Hampshire Democratic party for example (please).
On January 8, 2008, I was a registered Democrat for 7.5 minutes. I voted for Obama in a (vain) attempt to cripple Hillary.
What kind of sense does it make for me to have the same voice in what they do as the former governor, or an elected congressthing?
None, that's how much.
Voting with no barrier to participation makes sense (barely) in November, because it's a binary contest where A or B is an answer.
But to nominate the candidate of a specific political party, uninvolved or barely involved voters, whether they are "registered" or not, should have nothing to do with it.
Bring back the smoke-filled room.
...yes but your not a public figure, a politician's file can be and is always used to slime and degrade whether or not there's any truth to allegations...the subject has to defend himself. Rats always use it with the help of the MSM....it's called the policy of personal destruction, the clintons are experts at it...(with the MSM playing the key role)
..don't be so sure. When it comes to $$$$ and politicians and the power they seek, they would sell their youngest
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