For Super Tuesday, McCain's edge is substantial

Christian Science Monitor ^ | Feb. 5, 2008 | Linda Feldmann

[FocusNexus]

The latest Realclearpolitics.com average of national polls shows Senator McCain towering over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney by 19 points -- 43 percent to 24 percent, with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 18 percent and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas at 6.

Still, given the rules of delegate allocation, Mr. Romney could rack up a decent number of delegates for the Republican convention in September, especially in states that award delegates by congressional district, such as California. Romney could also do well in some of the smaller states, most of which are holding caucuses, a format that has benefited Romney's highly organized campaign. And both Missouri, a winner-take-all state, and Tennessee are within reach for Romney.

The Rev. Richard Land, an influential evangelical leader who heads the public policy department of the Southern Baptist Convention, has been all over the media in the past week, encouraging conservatives -- including the very anti-McCain talk-radio host Rush Limbaugh -- to calm down and "listen to the voters."

Evangelical leader Gary Bauer notes that there have been conversations between the McCain campaign and various conservative leaders in the past couple of weeks, and that McCain has stepped up his signals to conservative voters, such as his promises to veto any Democratic tax increases.

[FocusNexus]

Polling Averages Put McCain, Clinton Ahead in Feb. 5 States

In surveys leading up to Super Tuesday’s nomination battles in 24 states, the Republican race is showing a pretty strong trend toward Arizona Sen. John McCain while Hillary Clinton leads in a mixed bag in the Democratic contests. RealClearPolitics has polling averages in 11 of the 21 states holding Republican nomination contests, McCain is ahead in all but one state: Massachusetts, the state where rival Mitt Romney once held the governor’s seat. Romney is leading in that polling average by 22. 2 percentage points.

McCain's widest margin is in New York, where he leads Romney by 31 percentage points.

Republican hopeful Mike Huckabee does not hold the lead in any of the polling averages, but he edges out Romney for second place in Missouri, Tennessee and Alabama.

[Tarpon]

Patriots a sure thing winner, Brady best quarterback in the history of the world, then the game began ....

[Jeff Head]

I believe that Mitt can do far better than what the polls are projecting. Reference Maine on Saturday.

The only polls that count are the actual votes...and those will tell the tale tomorrow.

How I came to the difficult decision to support Mitt Romney

[DoughtyOne]

Look, McCain is backing off on the importance of a California win. If that doesn’t tell you something...

[Eric in the Ozarks]

I’ll vote Mitt tomorrow here in Missouri because Fred’s not on the ballot.

[Parley Baer]

We shall see. We have 4 California votes for Mitt in this household.

[JaneNC]

No kidding. People are waking up to McAmnesty...more and more and more.

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Here is a handy dandy chart comparing all of the candidates, remember this when you vote




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Fresh national poll numbers from Rasmussen:

In the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination, it’s John McCain at 30%, Mitt Romney at 30%, and Mike Huckabee at 21%. Ron Paul is supported by 5% of Likely Republican Primary Voters…Romney leads by sixteen percentage points among conservatives while McCain has a two-to-one advantage among moderate Primary Voters…

…

[Sir Francis Dashwood]

Phony preachers, cafeteria conservatives. No thanks.

Maybe they need to have a Jim Baker type television show.

[Jeff Head]

It is interesting...like he is conceding Mitt’s surge there and trying to solidify those states where it is a true winner take all. I believe that given time, Mitt can overtake him.

[keepitreal]

MSM doesn’t get this. National polling preference is meaningless. This is a state by state, often district by district race. This will be decided in the trenches.

[Jeff Head]

I believe Missouri is a key battle ground and one of the winner take alls that Mitt has a chance to win.

[Earthdweller]

No commie mandates for Healthcare or for anything else from Mitt or Hillary.

Just say no to flip the surge Mitt and say yes to Freedom for all!

Romney wants to replace “don’t ask don’t tell” by ending all restrictions on homosexuality in our armed forces.

Insurance in Massachusetts is among the most expensive in the nation because of multiple mandates, such as premium price controls and rules dictating that coverage be offered to all comers regardless of health...WSJ 2/2/2008

Romney claims to be a gun rights backer but cannot be a "true Second Amendment" supporter because he supports an assault weapons ban.

“My goal is to elect conservatives. Free Republic’s goal is to elect conservatives. Romney is NO conservative.”
295 posted on 01/31/2008 3:37:56 PM PST by Jim Robinson (Our God-given unalienable rights are not open to debate, negotiation or compromise!)

[ari-freedom]

intrade on mcCain winning the nomination: 90.5. Mitt: 8.0

[keepitreal]

“Patriots a sure thing winner, Brady best quarterback in the history of the world, then the game began ....”

And then it was the last minute that mattered!

[Jeff Head]

Great! Hope you in CA can pull it off. It is much more than a nation wide, or even state wide race now...it’s a down in the trenches precinct by precinct battle IMHO.

[ari-freedom]

What happens in Boston must stay in Boston

[DoughtyOne]

I believe there is a real groundswell for Mitt out there.

He’s not my guy, but I do think he has given folks something to cling on to, if they want to claim he is a conservative and vote for him. I just don’t think there’s any way of knowing for sure if that is true or not.

Time will tell. I think McCain is in trouble. I cannot believe his temprament and history would gain him the nomination.

[freeangel]

I for one, are sure hoping the polls are wrong—as usual.

[FreeAtlanta]

I will vote for Mitt in Georgia!

I may have just watched my last Fox News cast. They appear to be shilling for that "Moderate" McInsane.

[bazbo]

Breaking from Newsmax.com

Video: Zogby Sees Surprises Super Tuesday
John Zogby, one of America’s most noted pollsters, reveals the latest tracking data with Newsmax.tv.

Zogby says Romney is “on the ropes” but is close to pulling out a surprise victory in California. Meanwhile, Romney’s home state of Massachusetts is now in play. On the Democratic side, Obama is benefiting from a last-minute surge. Zogby gives his take on the Obama vs. Hillary showdown.

See Newsmax.tv’s exclusive interview with John Zogby — Go Here Now

[Eric in the Ozarks]

Its like I’m going to the polls but my candidate’s not there. How’d we get here ?

[Jeff Head]

Agreed...on all counts. I have decided to, based on what I have heard, what I have researched, and what others whom I trust are telling me...to trust that Romney’s current positions are real and that he will stick with them.

[TeleStraightShooter]

Evangelical leader Gary Bauer notes that there have been conversations between the McCain campaign and various conservative leaders in the past couple of weeks.....

..."Temper tantrums aren't going to help," he adds, referring to the conservatives who are vocally angry at the prospect of a McCain nomination. "We should all help the senator discover his inner Reagan rather than berating him."

Lol, Mr Bauer reminds of that preacher character in There Will be Blood who denies his faith for a lie, just to get his brains pounded in by a bowling pin.

[bmwcyle]

The change is coming.

[FreeAtlanta]

And, you love McCaine?

[DoughtyOne]

And I support you doing that Jeff. You take care.

[bazbo]

http://election.newsmax.com/zogby/?s=al&promo_code=446C-1

[Just mythoughts]

So is this the year of the Baptist?

[packrat35]

mccain can “bite” me. I will NEVER vote for him. If Republicans are stupid enough to pick this loser as their candidate, they can do without me.

[Jeff Head]

We elected a majority GOP senate, house and President. Many of those politicians betrayed their contituency and simply did not do what we sent them to do. We then lost the majority and the GOP leadership has been floundering ever since IMHO.

Bush has been good on many issues...with several notable and severe exceptions...the border not being the least of those.

IMHO, tha's how.

[Reaganwuzthebest]

Too bad Zogby has proven to be unreliable in the past. The only good news is there are other polls showing it close in California so Romney will no doubt be getting a chunk of delegates out of there.

[Minn. 4 Bush]

4 Minnesotan’s caucusing for Mitt!

[mad_as_he$$]

McCain that far ahead in NYS should be a clear indication to anyone who has a doubt in their mind that he is a Dem.

[ellery]

Well, overall McCain is no worse than Romney or Huckabee.

(I can’t vote for any of these schmucks)

[isrul]

Well Rush and Levin certainly have done their part to spread the truth about “Cotton Hill” McCain. I wonder to what avail?

[bmwcyle]

The tide moves slow

[Eric in the Ozarks]

Rush is suggesting Hillary will be so awful that she will create a second coming of the Gipper but I don’t think we can survive 4 years. I’d take any of the current GOPer’s High Court nominees over her alternatives.

[Earthdweller]

What’s love got to do with it?

[technomage]

Evangelical leader Gary Bauer notes that there have been conversations between the McCain campaign and various conservative leaders in the past couple of weeks, and that McCain has stepped up his signals to conservative voters, such as his promises to veto any Democratic tax increases.

In other words: Do not look at what McLame has done for the past 20+ years, listen to what he is saying now.

Sorry, but I base my decisions on a candidates RECORD and what it means to me.

I have not liked McLame for many, many years and his saying he is a conservative is just not true. What is true is he is a very vindictive man. After his loss in 2000, he turned even further left, just to get back at conservatives.

His attempt to work with Kennedy and La Raza on the Shamnesty bill, and his incredible assault on freedom of speech (ala McLame/Feingold), his using an open borders advocate on his campaign staff (Dr. Juan Hernandez) just to name 3 things should say enough about him.

[manc]

Fox news has sickeneed me this election
theyb have been pushing and cheerleading for Mc Cain since the beginning.

I hope all of you whon ovte think ablout Mc Cains liberal agenda these last 7 years, his votes and what he has said about conservatives not forgetting how he fought against thisn pasrty since his loss and was in talks about switching parties.

The man has been bitter, since his loss, he won’t listen to anyone, he wants to shut anyone up who disagrees with him and finally the man is more of a dem than a republican.

Lets just hope those polls are wrong and the good people of this country see straight though McCain and also huckerbee who has been working with him

[Eric in the Ozarks]

Is MN winner take all ?

[bazbo]

Amen BTTT

[manc]

exactly

notice how only the liberals, the dems and independants want him but not the base of his party, the same party which he had talks about leaving with kennedy, the same party he put down verbally and the very same party he has been fighting since hisn loss in 2000.

the man is still bitter over that now is that what we want a bitter old man who holds grudges like that.

He might have taken a stand i Iraq but how many wars will he get us in because of his stubborness and temper

[Jeff Head]

We shall see the indications of it tomorrow.

[Plutarch]

Too bad Zogby has proven to be unreliable in the past.

Not so. Of all the pollsters who have gone to all the primaries, Zogby has been among the most reliable, including being spot on in Florida. Neither has Zogby favored Mitt, his largest error being in Michigan.

This from SurveyUSA's 2008 Pollster Report Card Through 02/04/08

[Reaganwuzthebest]

Well I was thinking of the Michigan loss and polls in prior elections where he didn't do so well.

I'll be more than happy though if the ones saying Romney's taking California turn out to be right. As long as he can stay competitive tomorrow it won't be over for a while.

[WVNan]

Mitt has the most delegates in WV caucus tomorrow (207).

[Reaganwuzthebest]

Is Romney expected to win most of the WV delegates? How come we’re not hearing much about that in the media? Same with the Western states where he’s got a commanding lead. McCain’s advantage is the winner take all states but when it’s all said and done it’s still going to be close enough to keep Romney in. I hope he can pull out Missouri, that would be great.

[No Dems 2004]

I’m looking forward to Super Tuesday being over.

Go McCain!