Crack in McCain's Armor? He can't win a caucus (Vanity)

[JohnnyZ]

What I find particularly amusing is that most of the GOP leadership is openly endorsing for its presidential nominee a guy who just a few short years ago was considering leaving the Republican Party! What does that tell you?

What I find particularly disgusting is that many "conservative" GOP talk show hosts are openly endorsing a guy who just a few short years ago was spitting on Ronald Reagan and promising pro-abortion groups that he would work to liberalize the Republican Party from within.

What does THAT tell you?

[Truthsearcher]

Missouri is still up for grabs.

Minnesota is a caucus state so polls don’t really matter.

Tennessee is very close as is Alabama, and Huckabee actually leads in Georgia.

Romney will take Utah and Mass, and he can conceivable do very well in the 6 caucus states of Colorado, Minnesota, West Virginia, Alaska, North Dakota and Montana.

McCain will in all likelihood be ahead by 150-200 delegates, but still within striking distance at the end of the day.

[Truthsearcher]

That conservatives are a forgiving bunch when they see repentance.

The reason why McCain has not been forgiven is that he has never apologized and asked for forgiveness. He refuses to admit to his mistakes.

[Terpfen]

What does THAT tell you?

It tells us that John McCain is just that bad a candidate.

[pangenesis]

Interesting. I didn't know about the winner-take-all states. Check this out, from the IEM:

[Hawthorn]

>> LA is not a caucus state.

>>They have a primary on Feb 9th to pick half their delegates, then a state convention on the 16th to pick the other half.<<

Then I stand corrected. I guess what I heard is that Louisiana has caucuses to select delegates to the state convention?

(And maybe that a lot of these delegates had originally been expected to support Thompson but now might swing to
McCain?)

[kabar]

McCain is winning almost every winner-take-all state on Super Tuesday. Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Missouri, and Arizona.

Connecticut:29 Total Delegates: 15 Congressional District & 14 At Large Format: Primary Delegates bound for 1 ballot. Congressional district and at-large delegates are elected at the state committee meeting. Delegates are allocated on a winner-take-all basis to the candidate receiving the most votes in the primary.

New York: 101 Total Delegates: 87 Congressional District & 14 At Large, Delegates not bound. Each presidential candidate must file a full slate of delegates with the State Board of Elections before the primary. The candidate receiving the most votes in the primary is entitled to have his slate of congressional district and alternate delegates become the delegates to the national convention.

New Jersey: 52 Total Delegates: 39 Congressional District & 13 At Large. Delegates not bound. Congressional district and at-large delegates are elected at the primary. Delegates are not bound by the presidential preference primary held on the same day.

Missouri: 58 Total Delegates: 27 Congressional District & 31 At Large. Delegates Bound for 1 Ballot. Congressional district delegates are elected by congressional district caucuses, and at-large delegates are elected by the state convention. Delegates are allocated on a winner-take-all basis to the presidential candidate receiving the most votes statewide in the primary.

Arizona:52 Total Delegates: 24 Congressional District & 28 At Large Format: Caucus/Convention Delegates not bound. Delegates are elected by the state convention. Delegates are not bound to support any presidential candidate.

[gondramB]

>>Of course, *if* he does that he’s the nominee. The point is that he’s still beatable.<<

I also don’t think the race is over. But we are in the minority.

[Truthsearcher]

Yup. the had a caucus to elect delegates to the state convention. They haven’t had the convention to elect the national delegates yet.

[ari-freedom]

again, mccain is triangulating. He knows what he is doing here. And I might add, Ann Coulter will play right into his strategy. She’s the Sister Soulja of the right.

[JohnnyZ]

The Louisana “Pro-life pro-family” delegates are almost all supporting McCain.

[LSU Engineer]

...LA is not a caucus state. They have a primary on Feb 9th to pick half their delegates, then a state convention on the 16th to pick the other half....

Not exactly true. If you had to put a label on Louisiana, you would have to call it a caucus state. The delegates chosen at the caucuses (some committed to candidates, some not) self-elect the delegates to the national convention.

The preference primary is a beauty pageant. Only if one candidate gets >50% of the vote (unlikely this year) do they get ANY delegates. And even then, they only would get 20 (less than 50%).

With four Republican candidates, the caucus is MUCH more influential than the primary. Thus, you would have to call Louisiana a caucus state.

McCain won more state delegates than any other candidate at the caucuses.

[JohnnyZ]

Tennessee is very close as is Alabama, and Huckabee actually leads in Georgia.

McCain leads both recent polls in Georgia.

McCain is in first in Missouri, Huckabee second, and he won't catch up. Romney won't win in any event.

Tennessee is close but Romney may be in 3rd place.

McCain leads Alabama over Huckabee with Romney a distant 3rd. Again, Huckabee won't catch up.

In any case, in the proportional states McCain only needs a split and he'll get at least that.

[citizen]

Mitt on CNN now!

[Truthsearcher]

All Romney has to do on Tuesday is stay within striking distance. McCain will be ahead at the end of the day, Romney just has to keep within 200 delegates. If he does he will have the time he needs.

Anyway my scenario is about what could happen. I’m not going debate about what will happen, in 2 days we find out.

[CaspersGh0sts]

JohnnyZ, Mitt has a 19-point lead in Colorado. No maybe about it. He’ll win Montana. And mark my words: he WILL win Arizona. Tennessee has been steadily trending Romney, as well.

We shall see. This Tennesseean is voting his way.

[pepsi_junkie]

McCain has liberals voting for him until the real election, where they'll vote democrat of course, leaving McCain with about 30% of the vote and a crushing loss.

Just wanted to finish the thought for you!

[CaspersGh0sts]

” The Louisana “Pro-life pro-family” delegates are almost all supporting McCain.”

They’re idiots, then. This is the same guy who said just weeks ago:

“It’s not the social issues I care about.”

Yeah, that’s John McCain. A total loser who also said, “I don’t really understand economics.” So you’re actually supporting a guy who “doesn’t really care about the social issues” and doesn’t “really understand economics.”

I seriously question your skills of discernment.

[The Forgotten Man]

I agree whole heartedly. All of the eggs cannot go in the WOT basket. No candidate will win as a one dimensional issue candidate. I understand it is his strength but, we need a potus who is versed on a myriad of issues, McCain is not IMHO as a RINO....

[bmwcyle]

It has all been said before you.