Posted on 01/17/2008 11:57:42 AM PST by pissant
ARG GOP South Carolina Primary
* John McCain 33%
* Mike Huckabee 23%
* Mitt Romney 20%
* Fred Thompson 13%
* Rudy Giuliani 4%
* Alan Keyes 2%
* Duncan Hunter 1%
* Ron Paul 1%
* Undecided 3%
Survey of 600 likely Republican primary voters living in South Carolina (468 Republicans and 132 independent voters) was conducted January 15-16. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.
(Excerpt) Read more at race42008.com ...
Same order, just different percentages than Rasmussen, but I think all of the candidates in now will hold til Super Duper Tuesday...no point in dropping out now!
If Alan Keyes is polling higher than you, than you need to drop out and endorse someone. Hunter, that means you!
Time for Fred to endorse Hunter.
Ha. You think Fred should drop out and endorse someone with even less, by a landslide less, backing than him.
Not a chance. He will do better here than you think.
ALas, you are probabaly right
American Research Group has consistently been the worst pollster of every primary/general election since 2000. I don’t know how they stay in business.
Riiiiiiight...and the Packers should step aside this weekend and let the Detroit Lions play for the NFC title...
Alan Keyes took 5% in the South Carolina primary in 2000. He has a base of support.
Yup... I guess it is time to stick a fork in Hunter. If he cannot poll well enough to qualify for delegates in South Carolina, where is he going to get them?
Saturday Morning, when it won’t matter to the news stories, they will release a poll that will show McCain NOT leading.
They’ve done it in most every state so far.
All of them trash, of course.
Here is Clemson University’s:
* John McCain 29%
* Mike Huckabee 22%
* Mitt Romney 13%
* Fred Thompson 10%
* Ron Paul 6%
see post 13
I veiw it more as a Bakerite endorsing a Reaganite. Likely, no.
Who even answers their telephone for pollsters anymore? Everyone I know has either gone to exclusive use of cell phones or VOIP, or they have an answering machine on 24/7 and screen calls.
Rasmussen shows Hack back in 1st. ARG is insanely bad.
Dems in Iowa: ARG: Clinton +9; Actual: Obama +9; Error: 18 POINTS!
Dems in NH: ARG: Obama +9; Actual: Clinton +3; Error: 12 points!
GOP in Mich (1/11): McCain +7; Actual: Romney +10; Error: 17 points!
McCain 24%; Huckabee 24%; Romney 18%; Thompson 16%
Here is a more recent Poll.
Thompson rises to third in S.C. poll
http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2008/01/thompson_rises.html
“Thompson has 14 percent in the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released this morning, sliding ahead of Mitt Romney, who slipped to 12 percent, even though some of the polling was done after he won the Michigan primary on Tuesday.
Romney is chasing delegates in Nevada, whose caucuses are also Saturday, after saying he believes John McCain has South Carolina locked up. McCain held his lead in the new poll, with 29 percent, compared to 22 percent for Mike Huckabee. Ron Paul and Rudy Giuliani were tied at 5 percent, according to the poll.”
In general, no poll of SC means anything unless the samples were after McCain’s disaster in Michigan.
The one thing fairly clear in them all . . . is that Thompson can’t get traction. Hunter can’t either. They didn’t work hard enough . . . with “hard work” being defined as spending a year building a team and raising the money necessary to compete in an $850 million campaign. If you fail to work hard playing in this league, you will wind up in the cellar.
All that being said, South Carolina is less important this year than perhaps in the past 30 (and likely the next 30). The south made, collectively, a horrendous array of decisions about primary scheduling. They will have little influence this year.
Saturday is actually going to be about Nevada. A near 3 way split in South Carolina will render it meaningless beyond being the unfortunate grave of Thompson’s campaign.
IT will be interesting.
Duncan Who?
PISSANT!
I predict an entirely different outcome... and I base that on the biased polling in ALL of the primaries so far. That fork must be for huckster!!!
LLS
You are so right. I could come closer than that with a dart board.
...uh, I’m sorry, were we talking about something other than how gorgeous the President’s daughters are?
}:-)4
You know, the guy who has been fighting illegal immigration against a party of RINOs for the last 20 years. That guy. The ranking republican on the Armed Services Committee who knows more about our military than the other guys combined.
If it is, then that would be, to quote Martha Stewart, “a very good thing”
Where is Hunter ... oops , right under Keyes ....
Think it’s time for Hunter to bow out gracefully .
I can’t trust that ARG poll because it shows Paul with only 1%. I’m not a Paulestinian by any stretch, but even in South Carolina, which is not typically a libertarian state, I can’t see him only pulling 1%. Something about that poll has got to be whacked.
}:-)4
Maybe, maybe not. This year, maybe not. In the past, GOP went mostly by "winner take all" primaries. Now, it is mostly proportional to the vote. So if Fred hangs in there with the vote totally split up in the remaining primaries, he could be walking into a brokered convention with a pile of delegates to play with.
Ha!!!
If Mitt can get a Silver out of this, he’ll be in good shape, especially since it’s looking good for him in Nevada.
So a Fred endorsement for him would be useful.
Zoinks!
That’s probably the funniest thing I’ll see this week.
>>
Now, it is mostly proportional to the vote. So if Fred hangs in there with the vote totally split up in the remaining primaries, he could be walking into a brokered convention with a pile of delegates to play with.
>>
What exactly does that mean? He has 200 walking in and Romney has 1000 walking in. Are you creating a fantasy of it being easier to find the 900 delegates needed to move to Fred than it is for Romney to find the 100 he would need to win? What sense can that make?
What deal do you think he makes with 200 delegates? He doesn’t want to be VP, he claims. So then what does he want, and why would you think the delegates are obligated to do what he tells them?
The “brokered convention” nirvana of the unfunded candidate not winning primaries is a fantasy that in real life does not put them on the podium giving acceptance speeches.
Nad the worst campaigner of the entire field time infinity. At this point I wonder if he is just collecting a check.
O.K. I feel the need to add my two cents.
I’ve been Phoneing Fror Fred to S.C. and unless everyone is lying to me, or I’m calling a Fred hotspot, NO ONE has told me they are voting for McCrazy and only ONE person said they were voting for ther Huckster.
Everyone else said they (and everyone they know) are voting for Fred, or leaning that way!
Romney is positioned very well because of his national campaign strategy...he realizes that the primary system is more like Nascar than football playoffs...magritte
He’s a great campaigner. But how many MSM stories have you seen about his campaign events? Unlike Rudy and Mitt and Fred who have had throngs of reporters sniffing their farts every step of the way.
I have a feeling that the west will be the new South in a couple of elections. I have no proof except I just see AZ, NM, CO, UT, (all but Cali, Oregon, and Washington) being the next important area. The south had it’s time. The Northeast had it’s time. Perhaps it might be a good idea for the Republican party to expand to the Western states.
I’m waiting to see the results of some real polling, i.e. that which will take place January 19. I can’t believe South Carolinians will vote for that RINO McCain or the huckster Huckabee in such numbers....
I am a HUGE fan of Fred, but who makes up your call list?? Is this just a list of known FredHeads or of registered Republicans??
Think it’s time for Hunter to bow out gracefully .
They might as well stay in until at least 6 February. Who knows how this thing is going to be played out.
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