Contribution number 3 on its way to Fred's red truck.
Posted on 01/11/2008 6:16:46 AM PST by commish
First, let me get the obligatory “sorry for the vanity post” out of the way, although truthfully I am not sorry, this is something that I need to get off my chest and needs to be discussed.
The purpose of this post is to address those who are upset at Fred Thompson’s performance in last nights debate because he
1. Did not attack John McCain
2. Was mean to poor old Mike Huckabee.
It is time for a lesson in Southern Politics 101 :
As has been said ad nauseum on here already, Fred Thompson has always planned on employing a “Southern Strategy” to win the nomination. This is not to start a discussion of the merits of Fred, or Rudy G., allowing McCain, Romney and Huckabee to basically have free reign in Iowa, NH and Michigan, but as a background for the points I want to make.
Fred’s strategy has always been to start in SC, and use that to sweep the southern states – namely SC, Ala, Ga, Tenn, NC, Miss, LA, Tex. By winning those he would build a good number of delegates and have a solid shot at the nomination. That was his plan.
The monkey-wrench in that plan has become Mike Huckabee.
John McCain is not Fred’s main rival in the states Fred is targeting. That is why Fred is not attacking him like he is Huckabee. Yes, I know that Fred and John are close personal friends, but trust me there are no friends in politics. If Fred needed to hurt John he would.
The simple fact is John is a non-factor in the South, as long as there is no one else to split votes with Fred. McCain’s 25% in the polls in SC is his HIGH POINT. He will NEVER get over 30% in any southern state. He is maxed out. In the South, McCain is like the fart in church, there will be a lot of noise and a lot of disgusted faces.
So, Fred needs to get rid of the competition for the other 60%. Rudy? Not a factor anywhere but New Yawk south, otherwise known as Florida. Mitt? Massachusetts pretty boy – need I say more? 10-20% MAX.
That leaves one person – Huckabee. Huck is the only obstacle to a Fred sweep in the south, ergo HUCK MUST GO. Fred started the destruction of Huckabee last night.
Which leads to point two: Mean old Fred Thompson picking on Huckabee. Three words about that – BOO-FRICKIN-HOO!
This is not nicey nice Iowa, or touchy feely New Hampshire. This is the SOUTH! Home of BBQ, NASCAR, Sweet tea, and NEGATIVE CAMPAIGNING! Attack ads and negative campaigns are not shunned in the south, they are an ART FORM.
Thompson was campaigning to the people of South Carolina and the entire south last night, and trust me – they lapped that blistering attack on Huckabee up like a blue tick hound on a bowl water on an August day in Bama.
Anyway, enough ranting on my part. Hopefully this opens the eyes of some of the crowd upset at Fred for not doing this or that, or for being “mean”.
The fact is that Fred is in 4th place in SC, as of the most recent Rassmussen. I said yesterday before the debate that Fred needed to attack Huckabee, but also McCain AND Romney. He needs to do just what he did to Huck to the others ahead of him. They lead him in delegates too. It was a good start, and got him some good publicity, but he does need to go after the others.
Nice analysis.
Fred’s attack on Huckabee was written by the same guy who wrote Mc Cain’s NH acceptance speech. Fred has thrown in with Mc Cain and will formally endorse him after SC.
I hear you but usually in politics the lead candidate is the one who gets attacked to drive his vote down.
McCain looks like the leader in SC and is deserving of attack.
Fred did show some strength last night but he need to keep it going in other directions.
Huckabee was hit on “nanny state” anti-smoking at the end of Fred’s statement.
I liked that.
We need more defense of personal freedom in this campaign that’s under attack from the anti-obesity, multicultural and anti-smoking crowds.
Dan Rather, is that you? /kidding
Fred won the debate and I think he will win South Carolina too.
Pretty soon we will be saying, “Good-bye, Huckabee.”
Just like last night’s debate basically said, “Good-bye, Romney.”
I think you are dead on accurate with this ‘vanity post’ for what its worth.
The simple fact is McCain can’t win the major GOP primaries that don’t allow ‘cross over votes’.
What worries me is that some might think the votes he gets in NH or Michigan via ‘cross overs’ will still ‘be there’ come November.
They won’t be.
I would agree 99% of the time, but the dynamics of SC are different. McCain may be in the lead, but it is because the other votes are split. McCain will not go any higher in SC.
By taking out Huckabee, Fred is hoping to eat into Huck's numbers and secure the undecideds.
I personally think it will work to an extent, but Fred will need to get some of Romney and Rudy's numbers too.
I also think some of McCain's support in the most recent polls is media driven and it will also filter off as people see there is an alternative.
Not saying Fred's strategy is 100% correct, but as a southerner I understand what he is doing.
The SC Primary is just one week away. If you look where Fred is poling, he has a huge mountain to climb in a very short time. Rumor is he is just trying to help his buddy Mc Cain.
I agree 100% with you. If he is going to have a chance at the nomination he has to go after all of them. He needs to make the ideological differences clear with all the candidates.
Contribution number 3 on its way to Fred's red truck.
Source??
Problem is SC allows crossover voting too. Thus McCain will surge out of Michigan to win SC. JMO. All these early states with crossover voting, together with the media who tells us daily who is dead, needs to quit, etc, are choosing our Repub nominee.
Sources and links, please?
That’s why I called it a rumor. A couple of pundits speculating.
Nice analysis, except it falls apart in one key area.
McCain is a threat to Thompson in the South by the simple fact that he is leading SC. The last time I checked, SC is part of the South.
It’s inexplicable why he would go after Huckabee and not McCain when McCain is now the front runner and leading not just polls in MI but also SC. I take that back, it is easily explained by the fact that Thomson and McCain are good friends. Remember they worked on CFR together.
‘Problem is SC allows crossover voting too’
I didn’t know that, thank you.
He lost SC last time around (McCain).
“John is a non-factor in the South”
Really?!? He’s leading SC. That’s in the South ain’t it?
I really don't disagree with you on that, but I do understand why Fred is concentrating on Huckabee right now.
Fred alluded to this during his interview on Hannity's radio show. Hannity asked him about Super Tuesday and Fred's response was basically, "This week we are in South Carolina, so we are concentrating on South Carolina. We are taking it one state at a time, and will concentrate on Florida and states beyond that when it is time too."
I am not entirely sure how Fred plans to pull off "one state at a time" on Super Tuesday (23 states), but that is his strategy right or wrong.
But, on point, he is concentrating on SC, and in SC his target is and needs to be Huckabee. On Super Tuesday I do agree though he needs to broaden the target area and draw distinctions between himself and everyone (including his friend John).
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