Will a Dark Horse Take the Republican Reins?

Eagle Forum ^ | December 26, 2007 | Phyllis Schlafly

[Man50D]

Although the next presidential election won't take place until November 2008, and the nominating conventions won't convene until next August and September, the media have been covering the candidates all through 2007 as though they were running a horse race. What is it about presidential politics that evokes horse-race metaphors? The media have designated and re-designated the Republican "front-runner": McCain, then Romney, then Giuliani, then Huckabee. The media are also speculating whether Hillary will lose her front-runner status to Obama.

Next summer, the presidential nominee of each party will take the "reins" of his party, and hopefully then of government. He (or she) will choose a "running mate" as Veep, and the losers will become footnotes in history books as "also-rans."

The most fascinating horse-race metaphor that may emerge in this campaign is the "dark horse," a well-recognized label for a long-shot candidate who was not in what is now called the top tier. A dark horse's chance of winning the nomination depends on a deadlock among the leading candidates who are unable to race across the finish line with a majority of delegates.

Early in 2007, the media were confidently announcing that the presidential nominations of both parties would be locked up in the early primaries. It now appears just as likely that the early primaries will confirm the fact that Republicans are divided.

Each of the five top-tier Republican candidates has received endorsements from important Republicans, some of whom have state Republican organizations to deliver delegates, and some with large grassroots constituencies. No poll shows any of these candidates with anywhere near a majority of Republican support.

A recent New York Times/CBS News poll reported that not one of the Republican candidates is viewed favorably by even half the Republican electorate. There is no clear leader: Giuliani was the choice of 22 percent of respondents, Huckabee of 21 percent, Romney of 16 percent, and McCain and Thompson each had 7 percent.

Among Republican respondents, 76 percent say they could still change their minds about whom to support. Maybe that's because all five leading candidates are globalists and none of them has a solution for the problem of millions of Americans who have lost jobs or had their wages depressed because of unfair trade agreements, outsourcing of jobs overseas, and insourcing foreign workers.

A relatively new book (2003) of political history called "Dark Horse: The Surprise Election and Political Murder of President James A. Garfield" may provide the model. Kenneth D. Ackerman tells the fascinating story of how the 1880 Republican National Convention in Chicago deadlocked, with three sets of delegates unwilling to abandon their first choice, and a totally unexpected non-candidate dark horse named James A. Garfield was nominated on the 36th ballot and then elected President.

Senator James G. Blaine of Maine was the first major name placed in nomination, soon followed by New York powerhouse Senator Roscoe Conkling's nomination of war hero General U.S. Grant for a third term. The third major contender was Treasury Secretary John Sherman, nominated by his friend and campaign manager Senator-elect James A. Garfield.

The first ballot on Monday, June 7 produced Grant, 304; Blaine, 284; Sherman, 93; and a handful of votes for minor candidates. All were well short of the 379 votes needed to win.

Over the next four hours, delegates cast 18 ballots, every one with a full roll call of states. They broke for dinner and then came back to cast 10 more ballots, despite the heat, the tedium and the hard benches on which they sat.

All three blocs seemed equally determined to stand by their man. After those 28 ballots, Grant's total of 304 votes had grown to 307, Blaine's 284 had shrunk to 279, and Sherman's 93 to 91.

When the convention resumed on Tuesday morning to cast the 29th ballot, Sherman's total jumped to 116, but that boomlet faded on the next ballot.

The break came on the 34th ballot, late in the alphabetic roll call of states, when Wisconsin suddenly announced "Sixteen votes for James A. Garfield." Sitting in the Ohio delegation, Garfield jumped to his feet and tried to make a point of order that he had not consented to have his name placed in nomination, but the convention chairman gaveled him down and refused to let him speak.

The 34th ballot totaled 312 for Grant, 275 for Blaine, 107 for Sherman, and 17 for Garfield. On the 35th ballot, Indiana and Maryland switched to Garfield, giving him a new total of 50 votes.

The roll call for the 36th ballot became high drama. State after state switched to Garfield. Then Maine announced that all its votes had moved from Blaine to Garfield.

When the balloting reached Ohio, Sherman ceded his support to Garfield, who then won the Republican nomination with 395 votes.

Could Republicans be so divided going into the 2008 Convention that a dark horse could win the nomination?

[Man50D]

The GOP horse race is not only far from over but it hasn't begun.

[Man50D]

Duncan Hunter ping!

[rightwingextremist1776]

More like a donkey in a horse costume...

[Henchster]

Draft Cheney at the convention!

[Guenevere]

Duncan Hunter bttt....

..Love Phyllis Schlafly

[wildandcrazyrussian]

I agree totally!

[cripplecreek]

Most people are just starting to look at candidates.

[bioqubit]

I have been wondering too about a dark horse Republican. A sign of further weaknesses in the party, but if that is what it takes...

that part about telling Garfield to sit down and shut because he’s gonna be president whether he likes it or not is hilarious!

But, yes, Duncan Hunter ping! He’s got the stuff. The national spotlight of a convention could pull support he was otherwise never able to get. Pray.

[Always Right]

Could Republicans be so divided going into the 2008 Convention that a dark horse could win the nomination?

Absolutely, and if Fred can show he can campaign he can be the one.

[who_would_fardels_bear]

My vote for a dark horse is Tom McClintock.

[RC2]

That’s good. Let the Dem’s wonder who they will run against.

[Riodacat]

Absolutely, and if Fred can show he can campaign he can be the one.

If Fred can't win, place or show in SC on the 19th, he's toast..

[Cicero]

I’m interested in why Phyllis Schafly thinks that Fred is a fifth RINO.

[Cedric]

Bob Dole!

[Vigilanteman]

T his is an example of the milder tactics used by the Huckster's campaign.

These are the type of people who form a large part of Mike Huckabee's base.

We need a brokered convention if it means we can get someone on the ticket other than Rudy McHuckster.

[nicmarlo]

Among Republican respondents, 76 percent say they could still change their minds about whom to support. Maybe that's because all five leading candidates are globalists and none of them has a solution for the problem of millions of Americans who have lost jobs or had their wages depressed because of unfair trade agreements, outsourcing of jobs overseas, and insourcing foreign workers.

BumPing!!!

[Radix]

Ann Coulter sure was right about Phyllis Schlafly.

That woman is brilliant. Both of them are actually.

[Conservativegreatgrandma]

I nominate the best man in DC according to Ann Coulter—Congressman Steve King.

[Man50D]

I’m interested in why Phyllis Schafly thinks that Fred is a fifth RINO.

It could be for the following reason.

In 1997 Fred Thompson voted to revoke China’s Most Favored Nation (MFN) trade status (S.Amdt. 890 to S. 955), then turned around in 1999 – after even more Chinese malfeasance was uncovered, some by Mr. Thompson himself – and voted in favor of MFN (S.J.Res. 27). Then, during the 2000 debate to give Bill Clinton his coveted Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) for the chicoms, Fred teamed with Robert Toricelli to put in a poison pill amendment (S.Amdt 4132 to HR 4444), tying trade to a series of weapons non proliferation standards. Despite the Jesse Helms-like posture and the subsequent failure of his amendment, Fred ended up voting for PNTR, amendment free, handing Clinton a huge victory at the expense of our national security.

He voted to grant amnesty to close to one million illegal aliens from Nicaragua and Cuba in 1997 by giving legal status for those who had lived in the United States illegally since 1995, along with their spouses and minor unmarried children.

He voted against the Simpson Amendment to S.1664 that was in favor of a chain migration system that has been the primary reason for annual immigration levels snowballing from less than 300,000 in 1965 to around a million. Sen. Thompson supported provisions that allow immigrants to send for their adult relatives. Then each of those relatives can send for their and their spouse’s adult relatives, creating a never-ending and ever-growing chain. The bi-partisan Barbara Jordan Commission recommended doing away with the adult relative categories (begun only in the 1950s) in order to lessen wage depression among lower-paid American workers.

Before the Senate passed the H-1B doubling bill (S.1723), Sen. Thompson had an opportunity to vote for a measure requiring U.S. firms to check a box on a form attesting that they had first sought an American worker for the job. Sen. Thompson voted against that, joining those who said the requirement would give government too much authority over corporations’ right to hire whomever they please from whatever country.

Thompson supported Roe vs. Wade in the 90’s. Thompson said he supports the Supreme Court’s Roe vs. Wade decision that established a constitutional right to abortion. Source: the Memphis Commercial Appeal on July 29, 1993 page B1.

In an October 21, 1994 article, The Washington Post reported that “both” Thompson and his Democratic opponent in the 1994 Senate race, then-Rep. Jim Cooper, “believe in legal abortion.”

Thompson spoke on the Senate floor on April 23, 2002 in support legislation that stated global warming was due to human intervention. Per Title X:

SEC. 1001. SENSE OF CONGRESS ON GLOBAL WARMING.

(a) FINDINGS. The Congress makes the following findings:

(1) Evidence continues to build that increases in atmospheric concentrations of man-made greenhouse gases are contributing to global climate change.

[nicmarlo]

Ann Coulter sure was right about Phyllis Schlafly. That woman is brilliant. Both of them are actually.

Agreed!

[stockstrader]

The 'front runner' Rudy had a HUGE LEAD for a long, long time and blew it--as more conservatives found out the 'whole Rudy story'.

The 'dark horses' are already taking over. Their just taking turns with the lead. I just hope a conservative dark horse can still come from WAY BEHIND!!

[huldah1776]

How about Phyllis as VP?

[The_Reader_David]

I’d guess because he just wants to overturn Roe rather than pushing a Right-to-Life Amendment that has no chance of being passed by any likely Congress in the next decade, and no chance of being ratified for at least the next decade and a half.

[Bigg Red]

We need a brokered convention if it means we can get someone on the ticket other than Rudy McHuckster.

^^^
Duncan Hunter!

[ArmyTeach]

Phyllis Schalfly could be our Golda Meier, our Lady Thacher. I’m ready for a woman president, but I'm looking for an ‘iron lady.’ General bitchiness doesn't count.

[WL-law]

General Petraeus?

[Radix]

Years ago I took a course in American History “1860 to the present." It was a terrific Course, and I remember it fondly. Lots of stuff concerning presidential elections and politics of that Day.

Phyllis Schalfly just brought a lot of things back to me with that column.

Great stuff.

[devere]

“How about Phyllis as VP?”

Phyllis will be 84 at convention time. She’s a great Republican, but a bit too old.

[nicmarlo]

I think our hero Ms. Schlafly is too busy sounding the alarms and trying to clean up the crapola that all the traitors are leaving behind....

Without her there to sound the alarm and using her pooper scoopers....we’d already be buried beyond doo doo. : )

[nicmarlo]

Ms. Schlafly is a patriot among patriots as well as a hero.

[GOP_Raider]

Brokered conventions can be fun!

[captnorb]

In this race the dark horse is FRED.......He will win.

[redstateconfidential]

General MacArthur’s Revenge on the DNC!

[processing please hold]

I love it, nic.

Go Hunter!

[nicmarlo]

Go Hunter!

bumping that one! : )

[processing please hold]

Welcome, welcome. :)

[fieldmarshaldj]

Well, I'm sold. James Garfield in '08 ! He's tanned, rested, and ready. And he's from the battleground state of Ohio, too. How could we go wrong ?

[Bobalu]

John Bolton would make a lovely dark-horse...

[Candor7]

The republican candidate who steps forth to slay the dragon,Barrack ( Mandingo) Obama will be the next president of the United States. The ammunition to do that is now all over Free Republic. Check it out. Obama is an Islamofascist/Black Natinalist. As such he cannot be the president of the United States. Who will have the courage? We will have to see.

[Clintonfatigued]

Well, there is the thing about him being dead.

[nicmarlo]

Well, I'm sold. James Garfield in '08 ! He's tanned, rested, and ready. And he's from the battleground state of Ohio, too. How could we go wrong ?

Well, there is the thing about him being dead.

lolol!

Go Duncan!!
(He's not dead. : )

[fieldmarshaldj]

A dead Republican Civil War vet is worth 10,000 rodents. ;-)

[fieldmarshaldj]

Hey, if they could run Carnahan for Senate in Missouri, we can run President Garfield for a 2nd term. :-)

[nicmarlo]

LOL

Oh, yeah....I forgot about that one. What a hoot!

[processing please hold]

Well, there is the thing about him being dead.

He can still vote though - can't he?

[Clintonfatigued]

Only Democrats can cast votes after dying.

[processing please hold]

Thanks for the ping.

You changed yours didn't you? LOL

Life is good.

[processing please hold]

One would think so. lol

[iReachable]

you can help GOP dark horse emerge here:

http://www.ireachable.com/vote

[webschooner]

Well, there is the thing about him being dead.

Yes, but could be be revived by convention-time?
Perhaps some of that fine Hillary-care will do the trick ...