Posted on 12/13/2007 8:24:34 PM PST by Galactic Overlord-In-Chief
According to Survey USA incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu and John Kennedy are in a close battle for US Senate. Landrieu is scoring 46%, Kennedy is tallying 42%, within the survey's 3.9% margin of sampling error.
Mary Landrieu has always been involved in close races as she was behind Susan Terrell with only days to spare in their last race almost six years ago. However, John Kennedy, the state Treasurer, who is now Republican, has the benefit of a newly-elected Republican Governor.
Interestingly, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for Roll Call, Kennedy leads by 12 among men; Landrieu leads by 19 among women which would be a 31-point Gender Gap. Kennedy leads by 22 among whites. Landrieu leads by 60 among blacks but there is a question regarding the African Americans voting since their most recent turnout was in the low teens of registered voters. The election is the fall of 2008.
This will be interesting to watch, especially with Jindal as the Gov, I wonder if voter fraud will be dealt with this election?
Landrieu is the only beast that can make Hillary! look half decent.
You don’t like Katrina Mary?
Seek help.
Obviously people in LA can’t totally learn from prior mistakes.
Voting by the un-dead continues.....
LA is going red. Sorry ‘bout that. Ha!
Sorta depends on whether they allow Katrinians living in Texas to continue to vote in Louisiana elections.
Mary the Moon-Maid?
LOL!
she stole Woody Jenkins’s rightful place in the Senate.
This is very good news!
I just think the whole thing was done bassackwards.
I like Jindal, don’t get me wrong. But I wish he he wouldn’t have run for Governor, and Kennedy had.
Kennedy is a social liberal. He ran to the Left of Chris John in 2004. But Louisiana has a spending problem and a corruption problem. John Kennedy was perfect for fixing that as Governor, as we was an excellent taxpayer watchdog over the last four years.
Meanwhile, Jindal could have waited and probably easily beaten Katrina Mary in 2008, thereby helping promote a more social conservative candidate to the Senate.
Just my two cents...but I guess the world ain’t perfect.
Landrieu is a BIMBO!!!
Unless they bus the dums back from Houston for the election, Kennedy should take this one.
I surely hope so.
Voter fraud? What voter fraud?
John Kennedy was NOT my first choice as he is a “Party Jumper”,,,
The AX will fall in Jan...;0)
She was doing a full Clinton, throwing the blame on Dubya, when SHE was to blame for so much of the Louisiana's unpreparedness and inability to function in an emergency.
Perfect specimen of a full-bore RAT.
Not on top yet, but hopeful.
It’s within the MOE, so he could be slightly ahead. Since he had no opponents for reelection in October, we can’t tell how favorably the voters approved of Kennedy’s switch to the GOP.
In any case, John Kennedy's 11th hour switch to the GOP because the incumbant Senator is a RAT and Louisiana is a much more favorable climate for the GOP now reeks of political opportunism. There is no way this guy can be trusted to be "with us" on all the major issues when the going gets tough for the GOP. If he was a social liberal before, I'm betting he had a Mitt Romney & Zell Miller type overnite "conversion" on the life issue and woke up one morning to "discover" the unborn child has an inherit right-to-life (gotta mimic the party line in order to dupe Republicans into nominating you)
Unfortunately, what are we going to do about this? As the the popular "above partisan politics" state treasurer, the Louisiana GOP establishment might well have a good point that he's the most "electable" candidate in the general election. Still, if he has a primary challenger, I'd risk my chances on a less "electable" Republican who can at least be trusted to govern as an actual Republican. In any case Laudrieu has never been terribly popular in Louisiana and it's theoretical that another "R" could beat her.
My understanding is that the Louisiana GOP has been careful to clear the field for this guy so he gets the party nod no matter what, in which case we're stuck with him and will have to hold our noses and pray he will actually stick to his campaign "pledges" in office.
On thing is for certain, any lifelong RAT politician who held socially "progressive" views as recently as a few months ago needs to be vetted by rank and file conservatives, promise to support the conservative agenda on ALL major issues, and have his feet held to the fire to do so.
This race seems to be more of a slick-talking "centrist" RAT vs. goofy liberal hack RAT than an actual contest between Conservative Republican vs. Liberal Democrat. I don't like the look of it, but sadly, this seat is our best bet for a pickup.
www.johnkennedy.com <--- John Kennedy's Official Campaign Site for U.S. Senate.
Features an introduction, news, bio page, and contribute/volunteer page.
Mentions absolutely nothing about where he stands on ANY issue. I suppose that's "Coming Soon"
Things that make you go “hmmmmm...”
~~~
Me Too,,,I just don’t trust a “party jumper”,,,
Can’t help it,,,
Recalling back to her feigned Katrina anger ...
She’s cute when she’s mad.
“Landrieu leads by 60 among blacks but there is a question regarding the African Americans voting since their most recent turnout was in the low teens of registered voters.”
I think it will be very uphill for Landrieu to win reelection-—her best shot would be if more candidates jump into the race and she can hold Kennedy below 50% in November, thereby setting up a lower-turnoput December run-off in which there won’t be a GOP presidential candidate atop the ballot.
I don’t know if this Kennedy will be that good of a campaigner. He is a policy wonk. He was a poor campaigner in the 2004 senatorial primary. The thing is many in LA think they are required to vote for any Landrieu whenever a Landrieu is on the ballot. Of Mary, they say, “oh, she’s all right, I guess.” Kennedy is considered a “good government” type and a “moderate”.
No, LA will have a regular closed primary for the Senate in September 2008. Kennedy will presumably have minor opposition for the Republican nomination, and Landrieu, accordingly for the Democrats. There won’t be much of a primary at all this year, but a general election matchup in which HRC could help Landrieu win. LA has dropped jungle primaries for federal elections.
African Americans will be out in droves to elect HRC and Landrieu in 2008, but there won’t be as many as there was in 2002 and 2004 because of migration to Houston, primarily.
I didn’t know that LA had dropped the jungle primary for federal elections; maybe they saw the writing on the wall after the blanket primaries were declared unconstitutional in WA and CA. (I think the jungle primary in state elections also violates First Amendment rights, but it would probably be less likely to be ruled unconstitutional than one used in congressional elections). Suffice it to say, I am very pleased to hear that there will now be closed primaries in LA, at least for Congress.
I doubt that Hillary will motivate voters enough for Landrieu to win. First of all, she ain’t Bill, so conservative Democrats won’t be walking on broken glass to pull the D lever. Second, as you noted, many New Orleans blacks have moved to Houston and elsewhere out of state, and they won’t be returning (or voting absentee, if they even qualify to do so) anytime soon. Unless Giuliani wins the GOP nomination (God forbid), I think there will be a pretty good headwind for John N. Kennedy (the N stands for “Not Ted Kennedy’s Brother” : ) in November of 2004.
considering New Orleans was prob her stronghold and at least half the residents are still missing...how could she possibly win this one?
Landrieu can get the busses running for an election but not for a hurricane evacuation.
Remember, Mitch Landrieu was the biggest statewide votegetter on October 20. One has to show why a Landrieu should NOT be elected, or the sheeple will routinely reelect them.
I’m no expert on LA politics, but wasn’t her dad Moon Landrieu as crooked as a dog’s hind leg?
Mitch Landrieu’s central opponent, Sammy Kershaw (who was joined by another Republican who received 11% in addition to Kershaw’s 30%), wasn’t apparently as well-regarded as I personally thought (and also got very little coverage), and there wasn’t a huge push to knock him off, since the main priority was getting Jindal elected. Mitch got all of 2,000 more votes than Jindal received, but there was another candidate in the Gov’s race that was trying to take some Conservative votes away, so if it had been a Jindal-Mitch race, Jindal unquestionably would’ve won (remember, Mitch did NOT want to face Jindal and inherit all the baggage of the massively unpopular Blanco administration — he just ran his own race and protected his own butt — also remember, too, Mitch never received the kind of votes Blanco got in her two runs, nearly 30% fewer votes).
Fact is, the Lt Governor’s office is a very low-profile one, and surprisingly, most of its occupants in many decades have never been able to ascend to the Governorship. In fact, Blanco was the first Lieutenant Governor to ascend to the Governorship since Earl Long did when the incumbent, Richard Leche, resigned in 1939 just ahead of a criminal sentencing. However, not since Jared Young Sanders, Sr. in 1908 has a Lt Governor been elected to the Governorship without ascending due to death or resignation. Quite telling. I’d be mighty surprised if Landrieu tries to run for Governor in 2011, unless Jindal blows it big-time.
As for sister Mary, the rumor is that she is indeed preparing for the likelihood of loss and may try to do what her brother did and run for Mayor of NOLA in 2010. Demographically, she’s going to have an extremely difficult time winning the Senate race again. She needed massive NOLA fraud to help her in 1996 over Woody Jenkins and she only barely lucked out against the not-fully-prepared Suzy Terrell in ‘02. This time, she is probably toast, and John Kennedy will have complete and total party backing. With her defeat, it will be the first time since 1872 the GOP controls both Senate seats and the Governor’s office.
There are polls which show Kennedy leading.
Ah, 1872, the good ol’ days of the Louisiana GOP. That’s when the state not only had 2 GOP Senators and a GOP Governor, but also a black Republican Lt. Governor in P.B.S. Pinchback, who became Governor in December of that year. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P._B._S._Pinchback
Too bad that black Republican Kirt Bennett (what’s he up to now?) couldn’t follow in Pinchback’s footsteps and get elected Lt. Governor in 2003.
You may also remember that Governor Pinchback had been duly elected by the LA legislature to the U.S. Senate to succeed Gov-elect William Pitt Kellogg (and he was also elected to the At-Large seat for the U.S. House, whichever he preferred to assume). The Senate seat ended up vacant for over 3 years (!) because of the turmoil and allowed the Dems to capture it early before the expiration of it in 1879 with James Eustis’s special election in 1876 (although Kellogg still managed to be elected to the other seat as things were getting dicey for the LA GOP). Not until Vitter was elected in 2004 did we recapture the seat Pinchback was supposed to occupy, and of course, we’ve yet to recapture the other seat Kellogg left in 1883.
The House refused to give Pinchback the seat he was elected to, either, seating a member of the Liberal Republican party (1870s-style RINOs aligned with Democrats, no surprise) instead, George Sheridan.
I have no idea what Kirt Bennett is up to. He had the serious problem of numerous GOP Lt Governor candidates in 2003 (including ex-Rep. Clyde Holloway and ex-Lt Gov Melinda Schwegmann, who was a liberal Dem who had no logical ideological reason for switching to the GOP). That divided field helped Mitch Landrieu this time around to a 2nd term when there were 2 Republicans splitting the vote.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.