November Jobs Report Brings Little Cheer

Wall Street Journal ^ | 8 December 2007 | KELLY EVANS

[shrinkermd]

U.S. employers hired workers at a middling pace in November, according to a report that did little to ease fears among some analysts that economic growth is close to stalling.

The Labor Department reported that employment at nonfarm businesses rose by 94,000 jobs in November. That followed revised increases of 170,000 in October and 44,000 in September; those gains were initially estimated at 166,000 and 96,000, respectively. The unemployment rate stayed at 4.7% for the third-consecutive month.

Service industries such as health care, leisure and hospitality picked up jobs. But businesses related to the housing bust -- including construction, mortgage lending and real estate -- scored losses. "November's job numbers, on balance, provide further evidence that this economy is still weakening, and may well be on the cusp of recession..."

New private-sector jobs increased an "anemic" 64,000 last month, he said. The average monthly increase for private-sector jobs has been 74,000 this year through November, compared with an average gain of 169,000 jobs a month last year -- a 56% decline.

The downbeat view was reinforced by the latest reading of consumer sentiment, which fell to 74.5, according to the Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary survey of December. The survey's index of current economic conditions rose to 92.1 in early December from 91.5 in November, but its index of consumer expectations slipped to 63.2 from 66.2, according to subscribers to the service. The fall was concentrated among lower-income households who are more likely to be affected by higher gas prices, analysts said.

Inflation expectations for the coming year rose to 3.5%, while long-term expectations increased as well. The share of people who say that now is a good time to buy a house because of low prices or a good deal hit 55%, a record high.

[shrinkermd]

Conclusion: "...The Labor Department said that average hourly earnings jumped a substantial $0.08, or 0.5%, to $17.63. But earnings are up just 3.8% from a year ago, suggesting that wage pressures are in check. That gives the Federal Reserve additional leeway to cut interest rates at next Tuesday's meeting. The Fed is expected to cut its main interest-rate target by at least a quarter of a percentage point.

[FoxInSocks]

Maybe they should have instead made a headline out of the mentioned fact that unemployment is still only 4.7 percent.

[BlabItGrabIt]

The FED needs to cut 50 basis-points—Reality Economics.

[shrinkermd]

I really don't know if they should cut 50 or 25, but I do know the following:

"...With just 15 trading days left of 2007, for the year the Dow is currently up +9.3%, Nasdaq, +12.0%, S&P 500 +6.1%, and the Russell 2000 -0.3%. Considering all of the problems in housing, credit markets, energy prices, consumer spending, and overall health of the economy, the market is holding up pretty well in comparison...

Above from the Kirk Report.

[Texas Eagle]

Screw the jobs report. How come we never hear about a "new business" report?

I want to know how many new businesses opened on a monthly, quarterly and yearly basis.

[italianquaker]

I laughed at my friend who is a democrat. He was moaning about a recession and how he is struggling while our portfolio will earn 11-17 pct this year.I told him stop listening to the dnc propoganda and do some financial thinking of your own

[RightWhale]

Any reason for such a cut?

[driftless2]

"friend who is a Dem"

It's strange about some Dems. Some Dem family members (like my dear Daddy) refuse to invest in the stock market because they associate it with Republicans and big business i.e. corporations.

However I know more than a few Dems who invest bigtime in the market. Before Bush was elected one of them wondered out loud to me if the country would go into a depression because of Republican economic policies. I could barely keep from laughing. However this same person has made a bundle during the Bush presidency from the market. He doesn't wonder anymore.

[dangus]

Productivity appears to surges when business isn’t hiring enough people. It’s like the fuel efficiecy of a home seems to go up when people start tearing apart their homes to burn the wood for fuel.

The economy grew at a 4.9% pace, but productivity grew at a 6.7% pace. Such surges in productivity are impossible. So you know businesses are trying to expand operations with stopgap measures.

[dangus]

>> The FED needs to cut 50 basis-points—Reality Economics. <<

What is truly amazing is that isn’t a horrible idea... that the economy could be UNDER-performing while having clocked in 4.9% growth.