Global Warming Saps Hurricane Strength - Reduce emissions, save the ‘canes!

National Review Online ^ | December 06, 2007 | David Freddoso

[neverdem]

December 06, 2007, 4:00 a.m.

Global Warming Saps Hurricane Strength
Reduce emissions, save the ‘canes!

By David Freddoso

In June, as the 2007 hurricane season began, the predictions were dire. There were to be 16 named storms. Nine hurricanes. Five “intense hurricanes.” A 74 percent-chance of a storm hitting the U.S. coastline — all above the historical average. And numerous news stories cited Global Warming as the culprit for what was about to happen.

Hurricane season just ended over the weekend. The results? There have been six hurricanes (the historic average), two of them “intense hurricanes” (below average). Not one hit the United States (below average). Floridian business owners are so upset over the inaccurate forecasts that they are considering a lawsuit. Not only has “hurricane hype” cut back on their tourism industry, it has also sent their insurance rates skyrocketing.

Although there were 14 named storms this year, there is some doubt over whether six of them should ever have been named. This discrepancy in naming storms isn’t just a random complaint, it actually shows up in the more objective statistics.

The most wildly incorrect predictions of the season were the number of “Named Storm Days” (NSDs) and “Hurricane Days” (HDs). Forecasters expected 85 NSDs and got just 33.5. They predicted 40 hurricane days and instead got just 11.25. In each case, the observed number is far lower than the historical average between 1950 and 2000 — 49.1 NSDs and 24.5 HDs. This indicates that many of the storms were extremely short-lived or relatively weak.

And sure enough, this year’s Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) — the measure of the square of the wind-strength of all the year’s storms over the time they lasted — was just 68, far below the historic average of 96.2 or the prediction of 170.

So this year’s storm season was an incredible bust. We had fewer serious storms, less wind strength, and more “borderline” storms that just barely and briefly flirted with “named status” before dissipating. The previous year’s hurricane season was a little better — just ten storms, five hurricanes, and an ACE of 78.5. Many of the numbers are falling so far below the historical average, one might conclude that something is radically different from the past.

Normally, when we reach that point, we ask a big, important question like this one: Is global warming sapping the world’s supply of Accumulated Cyclone Energy?

We know the possible consequences of tinkering with our environment, causing unprecedented changes. This is how we approach the subject of man-made global warming. Wherever there is change, we turn immediately to global warming to explain it. Heat and cold, drought and downpour, famine and plenty — all can be caused by global warming. It can cause more foliage and less foliage; a slower-spinning earth and a faster one; more snow and less snow; a sun-scarred desert world, or a new ice age. Climate change makes mountains grow and it makes mountains shrink.

It is not impossible that all (or at least most) of these theories are simultaneously true. But they also have the advantage of making global warming an unfalsifiable theory. Not only can no possible event disprove it, but it can actually serve as an explanation for any natural event worthy of note.

Back to the weak hurricane season, then. According to a new study, this year’s drop in Accumulated Cyclone Energy may be caused by global warming. Higher temperatures cause more evaporation. Water conducts heat more efficiently than air, and so higher levels of atmospheric moisture cause a relative evening out of global air temperatures by region. This results in fewer and weaker cyclones, because wind is the result of variations in air temperature.

Am I making this last bit up? Hard to tell, isn’t it?

But yes, I am. And if some scientist comes along and debunks my shameless, ad hoc abuse of basic scientific concepts, then at least we will have discovered one weather event — perhaps the first in thirty years — that global warming definitely did not cause.

— David Freddoso is an NRO staff reporter.

—

[boomop1]

Makes me feel fuzzy all over.

[<1/1,000,000th%]

Global warming changes the way arithmetic works.

[USFRIENDINVICTORIA]

“Am I making this last bit up? Hard to tell, isn’t it?”

His ad hoc theory actually sounds more plausible than most of the theories the Goreians toss around.

[vpintheak]

Of course it makes them weaker, of course that’s what the story will be next year.

[AU72]

I’m not liking the way the 21st Century is shaping up logic wise.

[weegee]

Clearly there have been fewer hurricanes because Karl Rove is no longer running his weather makin’ machine.

[weegee]

We are entering a new Dark Age.

[rjsimmon]

Was it not just last year, prior to hurricane season, when the 'Warmers' were claiming hurricanes would INCREASE in strength?

The movie "Day After Tomorrow" seemed to hint at that...

[weegee]

Global warming affects agriculture.
The leaves are different now...
Reading the same tea leaves to predict the future is no longer reliable.

[andy58-in-nh]

The true cause of “Global Warming” is taxpayer-financed funding for scientists and researchers.

[VeniVidiVici]

Global Warming is cool!

[DGHoodini]

So.....Global Warming...Has *so* advanced in the last two years, that it has taken us from Cat 5 killer Hurricane seasons to the extermination of them down to tepid rain squalls...

Pardon my limited weather pattern knowledge...but aren’t Hurricanes triggered and feed off of hot oceans?

Weren’t we just two years ago being scared with the prospect of ever worsening “Killer Cane” seasons because Global Warming was heating our oceans up?

What happened there? Did I miss the news of a couple of Krakatoa size Volcano eruptions that filled Earths skies with dust that are cooling the planet down?...for only a while, of course.

[theDentist]

But, they said that global warming creates stronger hurricanes, with heavier rains and fiercer winds... now this? Maybe they’re lying or they don’t know what they’re talking about.... /sarc

[300magnum]

The author forgot the < /sarcasm > tag. ;-)

[gridlock]

It’s “Global Climate Change” now, Dingus! Get with the program!

[Homer_J_Simpson]

I’m not liking the way the 21st Century is shaping up logic wise.

Check out my new tagline.

[AU72]

Thanks Homer. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.

Now where can I find some Duff beer?

[dfwgator]

save the ‘canes!

Nothing is going to save the 'Canes, next season in "The Swamp."

[DBrow]

“The true cause of “Global Warming” is taxpayer-financed funding for scientists and researchers.”

And the drive for global control of the economy, and, as Gorbachev said, environmentalism is the only way to propagate socialism into the future*.

*or something close to that

[samtheman]

Liberals are already praying for increased US casualties in Iraq. Now they can add Floridians to their daily prayers-for-death.

[SkyDancer]

I don’t understand ... first they were saying more hurricanes were coming due to global warming, now they’re saying that those that form will be reduced in power because of global warming .....????

[Ole Okie]

The ‘Canes have already been sapped.

[the invisib1e hand]

wait, a few years ago, global warming caused hurricanes, tsunamis... what else...sunspot, gout, racism...

man, the climate changes fast.

[justa-hairyape]

Until the leftist AGW Mayan crowd understands the following, they are not even worth debating anymore.

Observations do not predict the science.

Science predicts the observations.

[westmichman]

If they said global warming caused leftists to lose their minds, we then would have solid proof.

[reg45]

what else...sunspot, gout, racism...

... baldness, acne, erectile dysfunction (sorry Bill) ...

[steelyourfaith]

~~Anthropogenic Global Warming ™ ping~~

[BBell]

The reason for the decrease in the number of hurricanes is that Karl Rove resigned and when he did he left his hurricane machine behind in the basement of the White House and didn’t show either George or Dick how to use it. DUHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

Hey, I started the “Global warming is extremely robust with respect to data. All observations confirm it with probability 1.0” mime. I think I at least rate a footnote.

[CyberAnt]

Excuse me .. weren’t these the same people who said global warming was making the “canes” WORSE - bigger and stronger ..??

[an amused spectator]

Albuquerque. See, I can do it too. Snorkel.

[lepton]

Excuse me .. weren’t these the same people who said global warming was making the “canes” WORSE - bigger and stronger ..??

National Review? I don't think so. The headline is mocking the environuts.