Posted on 11/12/2007 3:19:59 PM PST by dynachrome
Iran's demographic catastrophe in the making, I have long argued, impels Tehran to stake its claim for regional empire quickly, while it still has the manpower to do so. ------- Population decline eventually leads to stability, but not necessarily by a direct path. Some years ago a Danish politician proposed to replace the Defense Ministry with a telephone answering machine with the message: "We surrender."
(Excerpt) Read more at atimes.com ...
Iran wants a fight? Let’s give it to ‘em. Bring on the MOABs!
If she fights us, she most certainly will be dying.
Some years ago a Danish politician proposed to replace the Defense Ministry with a telephone answering machine with the message: “We surrender, Senator Harry Reid’s office, please leave your terms at the sound of the tone”.
Very interesting.
Yeah, I thought they had a baby boom going, as do other muslim/arab nations, even though they are Persian actually.
TERRIFIC article, thanks
Iran's version of suicide by cop.
Suicide by the United States Military.
The elders must be listening to The Who.
"Yeah, I hope I die before I get old (talkin bout my generation)
Yeah, I hope I die before I get old (talkin bout my generation)"
Actually, I have to credit Doc Savage. The link was on his website. Couldn’t pass up a title like that!
“Along with Phillip Longman and others, I contend that the decline of religious faith lies at the root of the problem. Without the hope of eternal life, humankind cannot abide its earthly existence, and ceases to propagate.”
That demographic argument may be true for countries like Iran who would have to fight a power like the US with cannon fodder tactics and terrorism, (Anybody see a lot of 50yr old suicide bombers?) but for western countries it would be more dependent on their technological base.
Or perhaps, we may find Denmark is looking more like Iran.
Of course, what the author misses is that, if Persian birth rates are falling faster than other Muslim countries, the likely result is that Persia will end up being taken over by Arab Muslims, just as is Europe today.
His projection of falling Muslim birth rates into the future is hopeful; but speculative. If he's correct, then this IS a cold war that will be best fought by containment. But containment will have to include sealing off the civilized portions of the world from Muslim immigration from until Muslim demographics have stabilized and no longer threaten civilization.
No Iran looks much more like China.
Still, 1.71 children per woman is below the 2.1 replacement rate.
Thanks for the info. Hard to get real facts out of a craphole like Iran has become.
Military service age and obligation:
18 years of age for male compulsory military service; 16 years of age for volunteers; soldiers as young as 9 were recruited extensively during the Iran-Iraq War; conscript service obligation - 18 months (2004)
Manpower available for military service:
males age 18-49: 18,319,545
females age 18-49: 17,541,037 (2005 est.)
Manpower fit for military service:
males age 18-49: 15,665,725
females age 18-49: 15,005,597 (2005 est.)
Not if the Iranians nuke the region first ...
Suicide by Cop - Saddam and A’jad
American Thinker | 11-16-07 | James Lewis
Posted on 11/16/2007 7:42:38 AM EST by Renfield
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926620/posts
That's what they get for sending so many of their children ahead of their soldiers, to clear out minefields during the 1980s war with Iraq.
Whether you call it child sacrifice, abortion or suicide attacks, the result is the same--a lost future.
The Moslem population took a heavy hit in the Iran-Iraq war, and as I’ve said, that’s the one thing we should thank Saddam Hussein for. The Iranians fed their zealot volunteers to the Iraqi guns; the anti-aircraft artillery was altered (because Iran had no viable airforce) for use against Iranian human-wave tactics. It was ugly. And yet, it went on eight years, and Saddam had to sound the retreat. In the long run, those churned into early graves had no or at least fewer children, than those who didn’t support the regime but didn’t dare do anything about it. Tables turned.
Good summary.
Not so, according to the CIA Factbook
Iran's annual population growth rate stands at .66% and its total fertility rate is 1.71 children born/woman (2007 est.) If the author's projections are based on this misstatement and misunderstanding of the facts, then this article is way off base.
It should be noted that Iran's net migration rate is minus 4.29 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2007 est.), which is even higher than Mexico's minus 4.09. The US has a net migration rate of plus 3.05.
TRUE!-—>>>
Birth rates as such are not the question. The question is: why is the human race reproducing at below-replacement levels in the first place? Along with Phillip Longman and others, I contend that the decline of religious faith lies at the root of the problem. Without the hope of eternal life, humankind cannot abide its earthly existence, and ceases to propagate. Iran’s demographic implosion implies the erosion of the faith of traditional society.
Exactly. See my post #30. Iran’s population is still increasing by .66% annually, which translates into 4.3 million people a year increase in a nation of currently 65 million. The demographics of Iran are not going to change overnight. It is like trying to turn around an aircraft carrier.
Jihadis and whoresWars are won by destroying the enemy's will to fight. A nation is never really beaten until it sells its women... The women of the former Soviet Union are still selling themselves in huge numbers. Hundreds of thousands of female Ukrainian "tourists" entered Germany after the then-foreign minister Joschka Fischer loosened visa standards in 1999. That helps explain why Ukraine has the world's fastest rate of population decline... The Islamic world also has been defeated, by a globalized economy in which the US dominates the top, and China blocks entry at the bottom. As the most urbane people of Western Asia, the Persians grasped the hopelessness of circumstances quicker than their Arab neighbors. That is why they have ceased to bear children... Once a people has determined to extinguish itself, nothing will prevent it from doing so... Prostitution is a form of psychic suicide; writ large, it is a manifestation of the national death-wish, the hideous recognition that the world no longer requires Ukrainians or Moldovans... Half of Iranians do not speak Persian, and half of those speak Azeri. Azerbaijan's oil wealth is a giant magnet...
by Spengler
Nov 21, 2006
The world's population is increasing by 57 million people a year [about the current population of Italy] and will continue to do so until 2050. There is a definite correlation between wealth and reproduction rates. Take a look at the rank order of world birth rates by country and total fertility rates.
If it weren't for immigration, legal and illegal, the US would have similar population growth rates to Europe. By 2050, the Latino population will have tripled, the Census Bureau projects. One in four Americans will be Hispanic by midcentury, twice the current ratio. It's the fertility surge among unwed Hispanics that should worry policymakers. Hispanic women have the highest unmarried birthrate in the country – over three times that of whites and Asians, and nearly 1 ½ times that of black women, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Every 1,000 unmarried Hispanic women bore 92 children in 2003 (the latest year for which data exist), compared with 28 children for unmarried white women, 22 for unmarried Asian women, and 66 for unmarried black women.
Forty-five percent of all Hispanic births occur outside of marriage, compared with 24 percent for whites and 15 percent for Asians. Only the percentage for blacks – 68 percent – is higher. But the black population is not going to triple over the next few decades.
I think I remember that it was Austria-Hungary that started WWI by invading Serbia. Russia entered the fray because of guarentees made to Serbia. Germany, who wanted the war more than anyone, entered because it was allied with Austria-Hungary.
France did not want the war, was terrified of a war with Germany, and sought to ally with Britain, her ancient enemy. The French declared war because of their alliance with Russia. Britain did not enter the war until the channel coast of Europe was invaded by Germany. Britain had a strategic interest in maintaining the neutrality of that part of the Continent that was closest to the coast of England.
It was Germany, not France, that sought a quick victory by means of the Von Schliefen plan. I think the author is stretching a bit in comparing current day Iran with 1914 France.
IMH and kinda grumpy opinion, the only containment we need to practice with the Moslem world takes the form of their shrouds.
The Black Muslims used to brag how they were going to out reproduce whitey. Instead the black birthrate is down and Hispanics legal& illegal have the highest birthrates in USA
We can’t wait for Iranian demographics to kick in. Because they will have nukes inside of 36 months. Bush must act before he leaves office. Period.
He is interesting and often plausible. However, that doesn’t make him right! We’ll find out about that eventually ...
“It was Germany, not France, that sought a quick victory by means of the Von Schliefen plan.”
WWI’s origin was indeed in France, which had been kept diplomatically isolated through a brilliant set of treaties negotiated by Bismarck. Once he’d been shoved off into retirement by the new kaiser, and the treaties started to expire, there was an opening for France, which started to put together the needed alliances in 1904, a decade before the war. France wanted vengeance. I guess they’d forgotten all about the misery they’d brought to nearly all of Europe during the Napoleonic Wars.
The Von Schliefen plan wasn’t implemented anyway. For decades was even reputed by some to have been mythical, until recent years when a complete, vintage copy of the proposal was found.
Heh... LOL... But the birth rate figures are reliable, as are the language spoken demography. That’s not unusual though in that part of the world, as this language map shows. :’)
http://www.farsinet.com/farsi/linguistic_composition_of_iran.html
Why Iran is dying for a fight If she fights us, she most certainly will be dying.
I don't share your optimism.
WHat about the chinese? The reproduce at a high rate and don’t believe in god.
Yes, there’s lot of movement among ethnic and linguistic groups in western and central Asia.
In my humble opinion there is a difference between eternal life and believing in God.
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