Posted on 11/11/2007 5:24:07 PM PST by Clintonfatigued
From Sabato's Crystal Ball:
While New Jersey voters have their eye on next year's election, many wonder how much that focus should be on current Democratic Senator Frank Lautenberg's approaching 84th birthday. If Lautenberg were just 20 years younger, most would hail him as a shoe-in incumbent; his strong and consistent criticism of the Bush administration's policy in Iraq, his Congressional experience, and his being a Democrat in this dark blue state would all greatly work in his favor. However, his old age has many pulling for retirement rather than re-election. In Lautenberg's favor is New Jersey's ranking as the second most expensive state to campaign in. With $2.9 million on hand and $1 million raised in the first quarter alone, Lautenberg certainly has the funds needed.
As it is still early in the race, thus far only two exploratory committees have been formed, with no Republicans officially entering the race as of yet. Strongly conservative Assemblyman Michael Doherty has formed one of these committees, but seems an unlikely candidate in this very blue state. The successful real estate developer Anne Evans Eastbrook is the only other potential Republican challenger to have formed an exploratory committee. Though Ms. Eastbrook may have the funds to contend with the big boys of New Jersey, she is a widely unknown figure among voters. Finally, it is the undecided state Assemblyman, Joe Pennacchio that seems to be Lautenberg's biggest worry. Often deemed Reagan-esque, many Republicans feel that Pennacchio's bipartisan appeal would make him very electable.
(Excerpt) Read more at politickernj.com ...
I think world events are going to decide the 2008 election.
What isn’t mentioned is that Lautenberg has low approval ratings. He isn’t well-liked back home.
oh great..ANOTHER 6 year Weekend At Bernies
You may be right about that.
*cough*Steve Lonegan for Senate*cough*
New Jersey is one of those states where seating two bags of sh!t in the U.S. Senate would be a huge improvement. Lautenberg has to be one of the most inconsequential people in Washington these days.
I don’t know much about New Jersey politics, but I do know Lautenberg is a typical Rat machine rodent without a single redeeming trait. A perfect poster boy for everything that is wrong with the U.S. Senate (and I can think of nothing good to say about that useless collection of Washington crap weasels).
and in this state he will be re-elected. Asm. Pennacio threw his hat in the ring and I think someone else too will run for lautenberg’s seat, so it looks as though there will be another republican primary.
Not to be crass, but Lautenberg, if he wins, will be 90 when his term is finished.
He has a very high chance of dying in office.
Knowing the democrats, they probably are hoping he does dies, so they can appoint someone and not have to have a real race until 2014
I was going to say that he might die before he can be reelected but then I realized that death won’t stop the D’s from voting for him anyway.
If I say more, I risk being banned and getting a visit from serious looking fellows in trench coats.
Whenever he would die, a special election would have to be called at the next general election. The last Senator to leave early, Pete Williams in 1982 upon his felony convictions, saw the GOP Governor, Tom Kean, appoint future US Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady, to the interim. Ironically, that was the race Lautenberg first ran for against the colorful liberal RINO Congresswoman Millicent Fenwick. Lautenberg, who was younger than Fenwick, charged she was “too old.” Lautenberg will be nearly fifteen YEARS older than Fenwick was in 1982 at the next election.
Something will happen. A crushing landslide defeat for the GOP.
I understand.
Do you have any proof he IS still alive ?
—well, at least Strom Thurmond was on our side, mostly—
“If Lautenberg were just 20 years younger, most would hail him as a shoe-in incumbent; his strong and consistent criticism of the Bush administration’s policy in Iraq, his Congressional experience, and his being a Democrat in this dark blue state would all greatly work in his favor.”
I would take issue with most of this sentence. The Bush administration will be out of office 17 days after the new Senate term begins, so that’s hardly a reason. I would also contest that NJ is a “dark blue state”. While we haven’t won the state since 1988, Bush lost by only 4 points last time which would hardly put it in the “dark blue” category. I’ve always liked Republican blue anyway. Shoe-in? Gimme a break. He’s a do-nothing.
Pennacchio sounds great. That name alone will win lots of swing Italian heritage voters. Reaganesque? Even better. He would beat Lautenberg.
Yeah well in NJ, crooks win the day and Dems go along with them each election cycle. Remember, Laut beat a good Pub when he replaced (illegaly) The Torch. I would like to see Steve Forbes run for that seat. Jersey needs a real businessman who is honest and richer than Corzine!
Please, your bias is showing. NJ is a rare state where Rudy would give the Hildabeast a real race and might even win the state if enough of N.Jersey went his way. South Jersey would go with Rudy all the way. This nonsense about a landslide if Rudy wins the nomination for the Dems is just silly and is not politically realistic. You may hate him but he could actually run well in the Northeast, New England, Delaware, Pa. NY, NJ, even MD., ; he is a lapsed Catholic and Md. love those pols. Now if Fred or Mitt were the nominees, all of the East would be lost but one or two NE states and that would be electorally zip for the GOP.
Please, your bias is showing. NJ is a rare state where Rudy would give the Hildabeast a real race and might even win the state if enough of N.Jersey went his way. South Jersey would go with Rudy all the way. This nonsense about a landslide if Rudy wins the nomination for the Dems is just silly and is not politically realistic. You may hate him but he could actually run well in the Northeast, New England, Delaware, Pa. NY, NJ, even MD., ; he is a lapsed Catholic and Md. love those pols. Now if Fred or Mitt were the nominees, all of the East would be lost but one or two NE states and that would be electorally zip for the GOP.
“I’ve always liked Republican blue anyway.”
Norman, you’re not the fist Freeper to complain about the political color scheme we have now.
How, pray tell, do you believe Rudy will be remotely competitive with a 3rd party Conservative in the race ? For heaven’s sake, man, Rudy is practically TIED with Hillary in many Republican states in the South (in TN, they are tied exactly, and it is stark — we will lose TN if he is the nominee with a 3rd party Conservative, while Fred will beat Hillary by at least 15%). Nominating a liberal RINO will be a singular fiasco for us at the general election.
I think God is...
look at the polls.also consider how many people on our side are saying they won’t vote for Rudy if he is the nominee and we know that they will and they are probably telling the same thng to the pollsters.
I'm surprised Lautencorpse is running for re-election. At the time the Dems "appointed" him to replace Toricelli on the ballot, I figured it was a slick move to just have him as intermin Senator and then annoint a younger, more active successor when the time was right.
It seems the only reason the Dems can get away with keeping Lautencorpse in office is that NJ GOP is as comotose as the IL GOP right now and can't elect anyone dogcatcher statewide. If a completely crooked empty suit like Bob Mernendez can be re-elected in NJ, any RAT can.
If the Dems tried running Lautencorpse in any state with a viable two-party system, he'd be toast right now.
Put up two liberals in the general election for both parties and you see how many Conservatives turn out. Hillary couldn’t ask for a better scenario.
I dunno, we have quite a few rodent morons in a lot of Republican states.
Funny, the NJ GOP hasn't had any luck recently with other "electable" RINOs. This last election, they ran Tom Kean Jr., who is a bigger name is NJ politics than Giuliani will ever be (having the name "Tom Kean" on the ballot there is like having the name "Bill Clinton" on the ballot in Arkansas), and despite having the worst RAT opponent ever, he still lost. They defeated evil scary conservative Bret Schundler in the primary to run "electable moderate" Doug Forrest for Governor. He got his butt handed to him too. When Corzine ran for the Senate, the NJ GOP put up "electable moderate" Bob Franks against him. Franks was crushed too.
The NJ GOP hasn't had any luck with electing RINOs since Christie Todd Whitman got in and left the state in shambles (following the same pattern of RINOs in Illinois, California, Ohio, Mass., etc.)
How will Rudy do better than any of the other RINOs? If I was a resident of Jersey I really wouldn't care about Rudy's "leadership" in another state.
Hey if some of the younger RAT politicians of NJ (crooked mayors and the money guy congress critter.. whose name escapes me) get of out jail in time, maybe they could be elected instead of the almost-room-temp millionaire.
I don’t care if Lautenberg was 18 years old. He is an absolute do NOTHING. Everyone dislikes him in the Senate. he has zero accomplishments. And yet they reelect him as if he is worth anything. Incredible.
Bingo.
I suppose that would be “shoo-in,” a time-worn, but descriptive, colloqualism.
“Put up two liberals in the general election for both parties and you see how many Conservatives turn out. Hillary couldn’t ask for a better scenario.”
I’m no fan of Rudy, but according to every poll I have seen, Rudy fares better against Hillary than other candidate, e.g. Fred. Somehow I doubt that hard-core conservatives in KS and SC are voting for Hillary (Besides, Rudy is tied with Fred and Romney in SC). Besides, Rudy is tied with Fred in SC.
Many conservatives will vote for Rudy because WOT, leadership and electability are the most important issues. If Hillary is elected, it takes 50 years to undo that.
Rudy attracts independents in purple states. I don’t think he can win NJ or NY but he could win in MN, MI, WI, NH. Thompson would not have a chance in those states.
pretty much every republican candidate in 2006 lost (ultraconservative, conservative, moderate, liberal, ultraliberal or whatever) so I don’t think you can make that an issue. George Allen lost in VA so should we conclude that conservatives cannot win? I don’t think so. 2006 was a bad year. It is that simple.
Is Larry Sabato drinking Zogby’s sauce?? Or are the people in New Jersey sooooooooo damn dumb they would elect this corrupt cadaver??
Just wait until Hillary’s people remind the voters just how liberal he is, the cross-dressing pics, the personal life stuff, and on and on and it will be devastating at turning out the Conservative base. A 3rd party candidate WILL come forward. I won’t vote for Rudy if he is the nominee, he simply isn’t a Conservative and he isn’t trustworthy with many important issues that matter to Conservatives like me.
And lastly, there is no poll showing Rudy beating Hillary in ANY rodent state. If he can barely hold solid Republican states, do you think he’s going to win Democrat ones ? C’mon, man. This is a farking fiasco just waiting to happen.
yes, NJ keeps electing corrupt dems. I think 20% of mayors in NJ are in jail, while another 20% have been named “person of interest” or indicted. Hudson county is well-known for voter fraud and bribes. Menendez was implicated in at least one FBI probe yet he was easily elected.
NJ is very expensive TV market to compete. Union supported candidates have great advantage there (and about 45% of households is employed by the state and therefore belong to union). Anyway, maybe in 2002 republican senator could have won.
“Just wait until Hillary’s people remind the voters just how liberal he is, the cross-dressing pics,”
Nobody cares about Rudy’s TV show pictures (saturday nights’ live?). It was a TV show, for god’s sake (and moderates/independents probably like Rudy being semiliberal and they are the majority in purple/blue states).
“And lastly, there is no poll showing Rudy beating Hillary in ANY rodent state. If he can barely hold solid Republican states, do you think he’s going to win Democrat ones ? C’mon, man. This is a farking fiasco just waiting to happen.”
Well, then we just have to disagree. I support Romney (so far) but I’m sure Rudy would be strong in purple states. Hard-core conservative would have zero chance of winning purple states like PA, MI, but Rudy’s proven leadership and moderate stance would certainly make it possible.
The main reason why he could win purple/blue state is because he is not seen too conservative. Number of independents or democrat leaning voters has been rising steadily and they easily outnumber republicans/conservatives.
I would love to have Senator George Allen or Senator Rick Santorum as the nominee, but they were kicked out of office in purple states. Unfortunately, this is how things are now. Candidate like Allen or Santorum might win SC but would be absolutely trashed in purple states.
Hey, I don't give a damn, and it was funny, but it's not going to play well with enough people out in the sticks. Rudy is as popular as a canker sore in the most Republican states in the south. He can't win them.
"Well, then we just have to disagree."
I don't know where we're going to disagree on polling data, because again, Rudy DOESN'T LEAD IN A SINGLE DEMOCRAT LEANING STATE. Since when has running to the left earned Republicans MORE votes ? It doesn't, it earns us less. Reagan didn't water down his message and he won 49 states in 1984 (and in the state he lost, MN, he still won 5 out of 8 Congressional districts). We need to stop with this pandering to the left crap, it has been a disaster of epic proportions. We've been shut out of entire states because of this tack thanks to buffoonish liberal RINO Governors (like Romney) who have laid to waste our ability to compete in those places. When are folks going to wake up and smell the FAILURE ? It's time for the tried and true method that has worked and running a solid Conservative candidate who will turn out voters, not turn them away.
In a general level, I 100% agree with you. On the other hand, we don’t have Reagan (and Carter) now. The country is very different. Take California for example. Do you seriously believe that Reagan/Santorum/Allen/Thompson/Huckabee/Hunter could win CA today? It is not going to happen.
“Rudy is as popular as a canker sore in the most Republican states in the south. He can’t win them.”
Well, Rudy is leading Thompson in SC so clearly Rudy is popular even among SC republicans.
Anyway, I certainly agree that we must stop pandering to the left and I think Rudy’s past positions on illegals are outright dangerous (but so is the history of other top tier candidates, including Romney and Thompson).
Huckster isn't a Conservative. He's a pro-life liberal. I already explained why many states CURRENTLY will not vote for ANY Republican at the Presidential level, and that's entirely due to the fact that open RINO sabotage of these states with liberal RINO leadership has had ghastly consequences for the party. Ah-nold failed to help us out there, and a recent list put out by a UK newspaper had him listed as the 8th most influential LIBERAL in the United States. He won't help anyone other than himself. The only thing Fred has to do is win all the states Bush did and maybe pick off a few more if possible. We don't need to look for a landslide, we just need to win.
"Well, Rudy is leading Thompson in SC so clearly Rudy is popular even among SC republicans."
Rudy is at 19%, so is Fred. And that assumes those polls are even correct, and I don't believe that they are. Romney's been pouring money into the state and he hasn't gotten anywhere, still stuck in 3rd or 4th place.
"Anyway, I certainly agree that we must stop pandering to the left and I think Rudy’s past positions on illegals are outright dangerous (but so is the history of other top tier candidates, including Romney and Thompson)."
I don't buy that his "past" position. He intends on lining his administration with establishment RINOs and liberals that believe in legalizing the invasion. We can't afford that, period. I have to live next door to the consequences of our current President failing to do the right thing, and you think I'd trust a man who made NYC a sanctuary city who is well to the LEFT of him on most everything else ? No f'ing way. Neither will have the Conservative base or more. They put up this guy and it will be an electoral fiasco.
“Romney’s been pouring money into the state and he hasn’t gotten anywhere, still stuck in 3rd or 4th”
Romney is first in SC (not third or fourth) according to RCP averages. Maybe you meant that in national polls..
Anyway, I just disagree with electoral disaster with Rudy. I would not vote for him in primaries, but according to polls I have seen he is the strongest republican in general election. It is not just ultraconservatives who are voting (and many of them are voting for Rudy). So called moderates/independents are more and more important.
I agree that we don’t need a landslide (that would be impossible anyway, given that CA is now very liberal and full of illegals). Basically, as long as we win OH and FL we will win. Losing OH can be compensated by winning MI, MN, NJ or PA. Rudy is very competitive in those states. Conservative (like Santorum or Allen)would barely reach 35% in those states (I think Santorum got 34% in 2006).
LOL! New Jersey? Of course it is.
New Jersey would elect Pee Wee Herman if he promised them more "free stuff".
No, I said South Carolina. See, this demonstrates precisely what I mean, the polls are all over the place. You're seeing polling data with Romney in 1st and I'm seeing him in 3rd or 4th in the same state. A lot of this stuff is highly unreliable. Let me ask you something, have you ever been polled ? I haven't, and I have a landline, not a cell phone. They're not polling people on cell phones.
"Anyway, I just disagree with electoral disaster with Rudy. I would not vote for him in primaries, but according to polls I have seen he is the strongest republican in general election. It is not just ultraconservatives who are voting (and many of them are voting for Rudy). So called moderates/independents are more and more important."
Actually, he isn't. Those same all-over-the-map polls have actually maintained that the strongest candidate is... *drum roll*... McCain ! But he's senile, unstable, and completely unreliable. But again, even he fails to best Hillary in a single rodent-leaning Presidential state. BTW, I don't ever use "ultraconservative", because there is no such thing, that's a media phrase used by liberals to describe the mainstream Conservative base. Most of those so-called "moderate/independents" are just liberals too disingenuous to call themselves what they are. They're the only ones who bitch and moan about being "labelled." It's a pointless exercise to pander to the left. It gets you nowhere. They already have a candidate, and her name is Hillary.
"I agree that we don’t need a landslide (that would be impossible anyway, given that CA is now very liberal and full of illegals). Basically, as long as we win OH and FL we will win. Losing OH can be compensated by winning MI, MN, NJ or PA. Rudy is very competitive in those states. Conservative (like Santorum or Allen)would barely reach 35% in those states (I think Santorum got 34% in 2006)."
If we lose Ohio, we won't win ANY of those states. OH is a Republican state, those others are (at least Presidentially) aren't. And, again, I challenge you to produce any polling data that shows Rudy winning any of those states. He isn't, and he won't. And Santorum got 41% in last year's election (but in raw numbers, he only got 50,000 fewer votes than he got in his first election in 1994), and his loss had more to do with several factors, the national rodent tide, a strong rodent Gubernatorial candidate, and bonafide anger at Santorum from the Conservative base for endorsing the treacherous liberal Arloon Specter in '04. A lot of seniors in PA also believed Bob Casey, SENIOR was running for office, and that produced confusion. The late Casey, Sr. is revered in the state and has a lot of Republican admirers for being one of the most unapologetic pro-lifers in the past 30 years in politics. Junior couldn't hold his father's jockeys. BTW, even Bob Dole got 40% of the vote in PA. Dubya got 48% and carried the overwhelming number of counties, but it is very hard to overcome the factor of massive voter fraud to the tune of over 100k votes in Philadelphia.
No, I don’t but nor do I have evidence to the contrary.
Damn. Just damn.
Do you know why Santorum got trounced?
Do you remember his endorsement of Arlen Specter?
That was a betrayal that real conservatives could not abide and they refused to vote for him again. Pro life dems voted for Casey (who claimed to be pro life).
Furthermore, his ‘pro gun’ record was spotty at best at 64%. When I was in school, 64% was a failing grade.
He also loved to support big government compassion here and around the world.
That will be the test of whether the voters in New Jersey are coming out of their coma and ending their love of the rat, or BVS ( Battered Voter Syndrome) wins out.
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