The guy hiding in the cave knows he is losing this war, a dramatic change from just six months ago as it relates to Iraq.
And he’s gotten his ass kicked repeatedly in the arena he personally choose, Afghanistan.
After the massive ‘culling’ of fanatics since 9/11, whats left is a growing number of muslims that are realizing this guy doesn’t have the balls to strap on a bomb belt and lead an attack himself. That goes directly to ‘respect’ which is huge among the tribal chieftains, not just in Iraq but also Afghanistan.
He’s in the same general situation the Japanese found themselves in after mid 1943. He knows he’s lost the initiative, and is now forced to play ‘defense’.
Thats a losing gambit, as any military expert will tell you, from any era.
To use the caveman's own analogy:
Something about "strong horse, weak horse..."