Posted on 09/06/2007 6:42:13 AM PDT by Cat loving Texan
Agency cites weather, clamp down on disability rides for some of the loss but acknowledges that its 2007 estimates were a 'bit aggressive.'
By Ben Wear AMERICAN-STATESMAN STAFF Thursday, September 06, 2007
Capital Metro, even with persistently high gas prices providing an incentive for transit use and a steadily increasing metro population, is losing riders.
Ridership, according to figures released by the agency in its 2008 budget, will be 6.2 percent lower in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30 than in the previous fiscal year. Capital Metro expects to have just less than 33 million boardings in the current year on its regular buses, University of Texas shuttles, buses and sedans for people with disabilities, and other smaller transit offerings. Last year, there were about 35.2 million rides on Capital Metro vehicles.
That includes a 5.1 percent decrease on what Capital Metro calls its "fixed-route" services, the 110 regular routes (and Dillos) crisscrossing Capital Metro's service area, and a 23.2 percent falloff in UT shuttle boardings.
The picture is even bleaker when boardings are compared to what Capital Metro predicted a year ago when the agency board passed its fiscal 2007 budget. Actual ridership overall is 11.3 percent below that 12-month-old estimate. Fixed-route boardings are 9.8 percent shy of that projection, almost 2.9 million boardings under the estimate.
Capital Metro officials said they're not concerned that the shortfall heralds a downward trend.
Todd Hemingson, Capital Metro's vice president for strategic planning and development, said that "first of all, our forecast for '07 was a bit aggressive." As for the actual 5.1 percent drop in fixed route boardings, Hemingson ascribes that to three factors: weather, a change in how boardings of people with disabilities are handled, and gasoline prices.
"We were offering no service for three days" during the January ice storm, Hemingson said, which based on average daily boardings of about 70,000 would have cost about 200,000 rides. Then, in fiscal 2007, there have been about 50 more days than in 2006 with at least a tenth of an inch of rain. Rain, Hemingson said, typically cuts ridership about 10 percent. That would mean another 350,000 to 400,000 lost rides.
And, he said, the agency in November 2006 completed a transition to "smart cards" for people with disabilities, cards that must be slid through an onboard electronic reader. Before that, people with disabilities could simply flash a card and get on board. Hemingson said there were reports that the cards under that old system were being forged.
"The difference we've seen in ridership since implementing (smart cards) is a half million rides in that category," Hemingson said.
As for gas prices, the monthly Texas average gas price during six particular months was actually higher in 2007 than in 2006, and equal in one of the other months. Hemingson acknowledged that the dampening effect of gas prices on transit this year was probably minimal.
VIA, the public transit agency in San Antonio, which experienced a similarly wet year, saw total ridership fall 3.6 percent this year, the agency said Wednesday.
Houston Metro could not provide 2007 numbers Wednesday.
Regarding the 1.2 million drop in UT shuttle rides this year, Hemingson said that the growing supply of new student housing just west of the campus might have some former shuttle riders walking or biking to class.
And because of limitations on how much the university will pay for the service, there has been a reduction in the hours of bus service Capital Metro provides under its contract with UT. Some students, he said, might have instead used fixed-route buses. However, Hemingson said, that notional switch has not been evident in the lower fixed-route numbers.
The agency, in the 2008 budget, predicts a further slide. The agency board has endorsed a staff proposal to double fares, which have not increased since the agency's 1985 founding. The basic fare for a ride would go from 50 cents to $1. The fare increases, under state law, would need approval of a committee of local elected officials, something the agency hopes will occur in time to raise fares in January.
With that higher price in mind, the proposed budget (the board will vote on it this month) forecasts that overall ridership will fall another 3.7 percent, including a 4.3 percent drop in fixed-route boardings. That would put overall agency boardings at about the same level as 1999, when Austin had about 12 percent fewer people. The average price of gas then hovered between $1 and $1.20 a gallon.
According to the 2008 budget, fare revenue for 2007 will be about $750,000 less than expected. However, revenue from the agency's 1 percent sales tax, which supplies the bulk of the agency's money, will be $3.7 million higher than estimated.
Capital Metro saw something of a ridership spike in 2005 when gasoline prices first topped $2 a gallon locally and, in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, shot up to almost $3 a gallon.
There were also several thousand Katrina evacuees in the Austin area for several months, many of them without cars and dependent on buses. The agency saw a 3.2 percent increase in overall boardings in fiscal 2006, and a higher gain than that on some express routes serving Austin's northern suburbs.
Capital Metro unveiled a "dump the pump" marketing campaign in late 2005, hoping to capitalize on the gas sticker shock. The slogan and accompanying advertising won the agency awards and was picked up by the transit industry.
Boardings in fiscal 2006 set a record for the agency. And with gas prices remaining high, planners foresaw an even rosier 2007.
It didn't happen.
Hemingson said the agency has hired a consulting company to study the market and analyze how and where Capital Metro is providing rides. The goal, he said, is to better align Capital Metro routes and bus frequency with the changing face of its service area, which includes Austin, Leander, Manor and a few other surrounding communities.
In all, Capital Metro says, almost 1 million people live within the boundaries of its service area.
Jim Skaggs, a retired high-tech executive who has spent the past decade as Capital Metro's most dogged critic, said the costs of the agency's planned commuter rail line will hit current bus users hard. Skaggs pointed to the agency's higher operating cost — adjusted for inflation, it has gone up more than 50 percent since 1999, for what now will be about the same number of boardings — and to the rail line due to open next year and the push for more rail lines.
"The very sad consequence of Capital Metro continuing down this track is that the entire transit system will suffer major setbacks," Skaggs said. "Those who need transit in their daily lives and have no alternative will be faced with higher fares and reduced service."
Cap Metro buses in reverse
Ridership on Capital Metro buses and other services has fallen in 2007, a year when the agency had predicted continue healthy growth in boardings. Agency officials blame bad weather, flattened gasoline prices and ticket changes that reduced fraudulent riders. The 2007 estimate, they said, was too "aggressive."
Fixed Route Total Agency
2008 (budget projection) 25,292,793 31,739,765
2007 (current projection) 26,428,009 32,965,335
2007 (budget projection)* 29,314,558 37,163,591
2006 Actual 27,833,898 35,151,897
2005 Actual 26,024,666 34,075,699
2004 Actual 25,342,841 34,009,357
2003 Actual 25,254,021 34,067,514
2002 Actual 25,194,618 33,265,093
2001 Actual 25,020,854 32,011,724
Note: Years listed are fiscal years. Fiscal 2007 ends Sept. 30.
* 2007 budget approval by Capital Metro board in September 2006.
** Door-to-door services for people with disabilities
bwear@statesman.com, 445-3698
I just started a new job in Addison that is a 5 minute walk from the main Addison station.
I planned out the trip from Valley Ranch (where I live) to Addison. Each way took a minimum of 2 hours, vs. a 25-40 minute drive, depending on traffic.
Worse yet, I checked to see if my son could take the bus from the same station to the CC he's attending. It's a 15 minute drive (tops) on the same road, MacArthur Blvd. The geniuses at DART make it a 1 hour trip each way, with a transfer at a change station.
The only picture that came to my mind is the "WTF?" cat.
If I lived in Plano and worked downtown, I'd probably consider light rail. Anything west of I-35, forget it.
Because the state legislature allowed it. It is going on in Houston and other places as well. Billions of dollars are put in circulation by government created agencies with very little oversight. I wouldn't be surprised if some of that money didn't get back in the hands of the politicians who voted for the tax. Enough money is passed around to keep these types of scams in operation forever.
Silly person. Everyone knows liberals don't actually practice what they preach, they just like to foist it on everyone else to feel good about themselves.
You are paying the 1% sales tax as a penalty for electing looney leftists locally.
For letting looney leftists continue in power, you’ll get to pay for whatever “bond issues” they create that will be required to subsidize the money-losing “light-rail” projects that inevitably follow.
But wait, there’s more...then you’ll get to pay for “urban renewal” projects in which tax money is poured into the coffers of private “developers” who promise to revitalize blighted neighborhoods.
It’s the same playbook in city after city.
In the meantime, your city planners will be shown to have been so busy with their big, fancy projects that your core infrastructure will have rotted from neglect (e.g. sewer/water lines, roads, power grid, bridges, etc.).
If "public" transportation isn't :
Built by open and honest Contracting.
Professional.
On time.
Economical.
Convenient.
Services all areas.
Not run by Unions.
Protective against fraudulent ridership.
NOT in any way a "new branch of welfare"
It will fail!
It is not rocket science. No college degree required for it to fail.
FYI
Hard to picture mass transit working anywhere in TX!
LOL!
That works almost as well as doubling the fare to double the income...
< /s >
There, I fixed it for you.
Here, in the San Francisco Bay Area, BART is a technological wonder, but if you try using it, you will find incompetent planning for parking at key points; If you can't park, you can't use the system!
D'OH!
Solution?
Charge for parking!
Apes playing with hi tech.
Austin has public transportation?
Oh oh. Nobody’s riding the buses again. You know what that means, don’t you? Crap Metro will demand more buses and more blight rail. If nobody is going to use your services, the only government solution is to spend more money to make it more plentiful (and numerous studies to spend even more money analyzing why nobody rides the buses).
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