Posted on 08/23/2007 4:44:08 AM PDT by Kaslin
WASHINGTON -- Democrats face a potentially disastrous conundrum in the 2008 presidential nominating race: Sen. Hillary Clinton, the front-runner, is the most disliked candidate among her party's contenders.
Despite the strong lead she holds over her closest rivals, the New York senator draws the general electorate's highest negative ratings of anyone in the race, Republican or Democrat, when pollsters ask the voters if they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each candidate.
A Gallup survey conducted from Aug. 3 to Aug. 5 found that 49 percent of the 1,012 Americans they polled said they had an unfavorable opinion of her, while 47 percent were favorable. Gallup asks this question every year and, since March, Clinton's unfavorable numbers have varied little, rising to 52 percent in April, then 50 percent in June, but generally remaining between 48 percent and 49 percent for most of the year.
Other favorable/unfavorable polls show roughly the same results. "The 'Hillary hostility' factor is constant and feeds doubts about whether she can win in November 2008. That polling perennial -- her unfavorability factor -- remains high," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
Nearly four months before Democrats troop to their first caucuses and primaries to choose their nominee, they appear to be ready to select Clinton in spite of her unpopularity in the wider electorate. That raises fears among party strategists that, even with the moody political climate offering their party its best chance in years to win back the White House, they may lose the election with a candidate who carries a lot of scandal-ridden baggage from the Clinton years.
"Her disapprovals are the two-ton elephant in the room, but a large part of the party's base seems oblivious to those numbers at this point," one Democratic strategist told me.
Other Democrats express some concern about her high negatives but say she still has time to turn them around.
"People are concerned about her unfavorables, but I think it is way too early to use that as an indicator of what is going to happen in November, should she become the nominee," said Bud Jackson, a Democratic media campaign adviser.
"Right now, these polls are based on what people have already lived through with Hillary Clinton as first lady," Jackson told me. "It's going to be different when she is standing up as the candidate, as opposed to first lady." Still, he added, "I think (the polling numbers) should give you pause, but I don't think it's alarm bells ringing off. There's time and opportunity for Hillary to improve those numbers," he said.
But seasoned campaign reporters say that election history shows that's rarely the case.
"Her negative ratings are higher than those of her husband, former President Clinton, former President George H.W. Bush and 2004 Democratic nominee John Kerry at the end of their campaigns," said Associated Press political writer Ron Fournier, a veteran of many presidential elections.
"A candidate's unfavorability scores almost always climb during campaigns. If the pattern holds, Clinton has a historically high hurdle to overcome," Fournier reported last week.
But more is at stake here than just the presidential race, Democrats said. A weak nominee at the top of the ticket can threaten the party's candidates further down the ballot.
Earlier this year, Markos Moulitsas, whose fiery liberal political blog, Daily Kos, is widely read by Democratic Party activists, said Democrats were increasingly concerned about whether Clinton would hurt the party's other candidates in competitive congressional battleground races if she led the party's ticket.
"Hillary would be a drag on races lower on the ballot. In fact, her potential nomination is already creating all sorts of headaches for Senate and House recruitment efforts in tough states and districts," he wrote.
"This is a dynamic not at play with any of the other serious candidates," he said.
Writing in the National Journal late last month, reporter Marc Ambinder said, "Some Democrats fret about state legislators in marginal districts" if Hillary is the nominee. "And several freshman members of Congress have told their political consultants they're not quite sure what impact Clinton will have."
Another huge manifestation of her weakness as a candidate is in the head-to-head matchups with Republican front-runners. She runs behind or about even with former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani in a wartime climate that is supposed to be favorable to Democrats.
Helping Giuliani to overcome a negative environment for Republicans is a favorability rating of 55 percent and a low unfavorable score of 32 percent, according to a Gallup Poll released Aug. 10.
These numbers suggest that Democrats are not running away with this election, that their front-runner still has huge political obstacles to overcome and that Democrats have a lot of soul-searching to do before they choose who will lead them in next year's election.
That ain't the half of it!
Bottom line: Hillary couldn’t stand up to her own husband and allowed him to emotionally abuse her for years.....still does.
How in the world can she stand up to national and world class power players? She’s used to giving in, rolling over and pretending they don’t exist.
is the reigning thought pattern and even though there will be no Bush, there will be a GOP. Therefore:
is now the guiding light, and that is what happened, abetted in no small way by the actions and hubris of many GOP office holders themselves, in 06.
These types of groundswell build up their own momentum, and we had best understand the dynamic in play here.
08 may well be a disaster if we cannot turn some things around.
Maybe, but it isn't easy to turn around perceptions 16 years in the making. People who vote know her and know exactly what they will be getting, hence the stratospheric negatives. These negatives can get even worse once the campaign starts and the Swift Boat Vets begin to perform their "magic"
"Right now, these polls are based on what people have already lived through with Hillary Clinton as first lady," Jackson told me. "It's going to be different when she is standing up as the candidate, as opposed to first lady." Still, he added, "I think (the polling numbers) should give you pause, but I don't think it's alarm bells ringing off. There's time and opportunity for Hillary to improve those numbers," he said.The battle lines are going to be drawn like this:
The media's newfound role to act as the propaganda arm of the Democrat Party vs. the traditional spotlight that shines on any candidate for President in the general election.
Whether or not the "spotlight factor" trumps the "MSM shilling for RATS factor" will depend on a large extent on how articulate the Republican candidate is. That's why I think Fred is the best shot we have (besides also being up there in the top three conservatives running), and it's why I also think that, if it came down to it, Romney would also be an effective candidate against The Beast.
Any other Republican running against The Beast would, in my opinion, be adding little to the Spotlight vs Propaganda struggle, and would win or lose almost as a matter of luck.
That's why I support Fred first, and Romney as a backup, in case Fred falters (which isn't going to happen, but is always a possibility).
Giuliani will have a hard time animating the conservative base because of his social views. If Hillary wins the Democratic nomination, she’ll mobilize the GOP base for him.
Interesting. You and I quoted the exact same paragraph and posted 5 seconds apart. Is this a case of “great minds think alike”? :)
Hey...I got an idea...maybe the Republicans can run a guy who played the President on TV. That’s the ticket!

Gosh, what's NOT to love about her? /mega sarc
No doubt about it!
You sound just like a dim operative discussing the very same worries at a private dnc meeting. Your head is still in 2006... and were are light years from that perfect storm.
LLS
That is even more of a problem for her because when more and more people hear her incredibly annoying screeching and mean voice or see the nasty look she bears on her face, then her negative will hit 55% very easily. In modern times it is very hard if not impossible for an unlikeable person with a very nasty ,very mean, and very uncharismatic personality to be elected President. Moreover neither Hillary Clinton nor the liberal media can change this fact no matter how hard they try.
Sorry to say, but I don't. I believe theirs has been a true marriage of convenience since the beginning. I honestly believe the two are emotionally blank. I believe they are the walking and breathing definition of evil - devoid of any human empathy!
Perhaps I am wrong, but it really is the only logical conclusion I can come up with to explain their behavior.
“Other Democrats express some concern about her high negatives but say she still has time to turn them around.”
How? She’s a lousy speaker and her voice is like nails on a chalkboard. It’s not just that her negatives are high, after 8 years of the Clintons in the WH people just don’t believe her.
All she’s got is the attack machine and 500 FBI files.
They are SOOOOO important to the world, so they think.
And you sound exactly like the posters here before the 06 election disaster, which actually did happen, as opposed to your fantasy of what might be happening at a private meeting to which you are not even a party.
Get real. - Get ready. - and get back to me after 08
Those who tire of all the fighting and petty bickering in DC would do well to listen to her. “I’ve been fighting them for 35 years, and I know how to win.” Is that what you want? I get turned off by all the fight, fight, fight. Others do too.
I think it is the nature of a human to want to be loved. Bill’s shenanigans started far earlier than the White House. At some point in time she FIRST found out the infidelity of her husband....she might have only been in her 20’s. Instead of standing up to the abuse she rolled over and continued that pattern for years.
Whether she uses it now is irrelevant. It is a terrible disrespecting of her and she tolerates it....rolls over to it.
It signals that she is weak. Men and institutions of power will read that and throw her around like a rag doll.
I have to disagree with that idea. She had to have known of bill's sleazy 'character' before they got married. Anybody who's the much of a horn dog doesn't start when they say "I do.". Maybe she thought she could change him.
When she undoubtedly did first find out about his infidelity (as you say, probably in her 20s), I think she made a calculated decision that the power he could achieve for them far outweighed the 'hurt' caused by his behavior.
When she found out doesn’t really matter; what matters is that she rolled over for terribly disrespecting behavior on his part. It signals she is weak. Others will exploit that weakness. The nation will not be secure in her hands.
Whether she’s always looking to be the “peacemaker” or always looking to salvage a “personal perk” it makes her exploitable.
well history says a different story........in one of the books in my library is states Bill loved her because they did threesomes.........two girls and Bill..........
this is before they married too
This is how Bill handled terrorism throughout his presidency.
OKC - ISLAMIC terrorist connection, covered up
Flight 800 - ISLAMIC terrorist likelihood - covered up
For the sake of uniting the country, she should drop out of the race.
If she is elected, it will only further polarize the country.
But, leftists, complaining about the “divisiveness” of today’s political climate, are only complaining when they aren’t in power. It’s ok for the country to be divided if they are in charge.
This old hag is wearin’ kinda thin, don’t you think?
Bullfrog
Ist truck bomb attack on the WTC - ignored.
Muslims taking over Kosovo- aided them until they won
Open military attack on USS Cole - ignored
Got ass kicked in Somalia - ran away
Open attacks on US embassy and Khobar towers. - killed a camel and damaged an aspirin factory.
and the list goes on I’m sure.
Bingo. These numbers aren't some transitory blip because of some passing political controversy. These negitives are deeply ingrained over a long period of time. People have had a long chance to watch her and the results are unmistakeable.
This confirms my belief that Hillary is the one we want to get the nod. She is easiest to beat purely on the likeablility factor. Imagine her against Fred Thompson in a debate. Thompson gets paid millions of dollars to talk in front of a camera because he's such a likeable guy. Hillary is everybody's "worse boss they ever had."
The MSM strategy of making all people feel the need to prove they are not racist..before they’ve done anything racist, has immeasurable dividends.
Uh. There's a much easier explanation. It is backed up by an eyewitness whom I know personally and who is a fairly powerful Calif dem. HRC is a philandering bisexual. Sloppy kissing in the White House in the hall with men other than Bill with the initials VF. Lezzie liasons.
They have, if you will, an "open" marriage. She doesn't care.
‘The Beast’ has the voice of every man’s EX-Wife. She should be easy to beat. ;)
Technically, unless she finds a way to cheat big-time, there’s no way she can garner 270 EC votes. It’s mathematically impossible. She may win a few states on either coast, but those that know her and loathe her in ‘Flyover Country’ will not be voting for her.
I'm considering registering as a Dem just so I can vote against her twice.
ANTI-HILLARY CLINTON BUMP!
I agree 100% Diana.
Well, there’s a lot to be unfavorable about.
There are several questions about Senator Clinton’s run that I wonder about:
(1) Will a Southern white male democrat over 30 vote for a woman to be the president?
(2) If she gets dirty in getting rid of Senator Obama, will it cause Black democrats to stay home during a general election?
(3) How do most non-partisan voters feel about her?
(4) What effect will the republican nominee have on the vote?
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