Posted on 08/21/2007 11:15:21 AM PDT by Mrs. Don-o
Oh, I wouldn't either. They're low-balling the numbers.
First, my comment taken from Heather McDonald's article in the Dallas News, Surge in birth rate among unwed Hispanics creating new U.S. Underclass that "The Hispanic [not Mexican] birthrate is twice as high as that of the rest of the American population." was based on a 2006 CDC report, Birth and Fertility Rates for States by Hispanic Origin Subgroups: United States, 1990 and 2000
The applicability of the Mexican fertility rate to Hispanics or Mexicans in the US is dubious. As the McDonald article mentions, "The rate of childbirth for teens from Mexico, part of the fastest-growing immigrant population in the U.S., greatly outstrips every other group." The total fertility rate for the younger Mexican immigrants to the US is higher than the Total Fertility rate for the country as a whole. I would also assume that the migration of large numbers of younger, childbearing women to the US would have had a dampening effect upon the Mexican birthrate figures. The Mexican-born population of the US equals about 10% of the current population of Mexico.
Harvard historian Samuel Huntington, noted in his 2004 article in Foreign Affairs, The Hispanic Challenge, that, "In 2002, fertility rates in the United States were estimated at 1.8 for non-Hispanic whites, 2.1 for blacks, and 3.0 for Hispanics. “This is the characteristic shape of developing countries,” The Economist commented in 2002. “As the bulge of Latinos enters peak child-bearing age in a decade or two, the Latino share of America's population will soar.”
I suspect that five years later, it is quite conceivable that the Hispanic fertility rate in the US is twice that of the rest of population. It should be noted that Mexico's 2.39 rate is less than other Hispanic countries that send a significant number of immigrants [legal and illegal] to the US, i.e., Guatemala [3.70] Honduras [3.48], El Salvador [3.08], the DR [2.81], Ecuador [2.63], Columbia [2.51], and Peru [2.46].
And you're right about the ominous nature of out-of-wedlock childbearing. Among white Americans, 1:3. Among black Americans, 2:5. Among Mexican-Americans, 2:3. That spells big trouble down the line.
Couple the out of wedlock births to the high school dropout rate and you indeed see a definite correlation. With half of the American children age 0-5 now minorities, the future of our country should be of deep concern. In order to be competitive in the global economy, we need educated people. Instead, we are importing the uneducated and poor of Latin America by the millions into an aging society. The reality is that we are importing poverty, which will accelerate the failure of our entitlement systems, i.e., SS and Medicare, which will go bust in a decade.
When I struck up a conversation in a market checkout line with a couple who had two loaded carts I learned that they were the parents of 4 teenagers. I thanked them for their contribution to the future of our country. (The dad had a marine-style haircut, so I didn’t think I was talking to a lib!)
If we can keep our country from going seriously bilingual, I have no problem with our new families being hispanic. My ancestors were the poorest of the poor in Ireland, but who had the ambition and intelligence to get to the US, and I look at most of the new wave of immigrants in the memory of my ancestors.
We are again more fortunate than Europe, with hispanic heritage families taking up the vacuum, instead of muslim families, who create a much greater obstacle to assimilation.
Thanks for all the information.
Your welcome. The CDC report provides more information than you could ever want.
The parochial school system has fallen to half the enrollment it had as recently as 1965, and the religious teaching orders are dying or long gone.
However they may rise again, as God raises up saints of the stature of Elizabeth Seton, Frances Cabrini, Katherine Drexel and so many others.
It can happen. Problem is (I speak for myself), so often we want to see saints but we don't want to be saints.
The important point here is that as far as fertility rates are concerned, any of the major world religions will have a boosting effect. It’s not the specifics, much less the truthfulness, of the beliefs.
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