Posted on 08/14/2007 8:11:55 PM PDT by Milwaukee_Guy
Shell Oil was pulling nonessential workers from the western U.S. Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday as the company prepared to shut in 5 million cubic feet of natural gas production off the south Texas coast, the company said.
U.S. crude futures jumped $1.11 per barrel or 1.5% to $73.73 per barrel in the minutes after Shell announced the evacuations.
...
(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...
More info to follow...
Let the games begin...
Caution Weather Porn!
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
1000 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2007
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED...
AT 10PM CDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE TEXAS COAST FROM FREEPORT SOUTHWARD...AND THE GOVERNMENT
OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST
OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.1 WEST OR ABOUT 425
MILES...685 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 425
MILES...680 KM...EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED BY LATE TOMORROW. THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE LOWER OR MIDDLE TEXAS COAST
BY THURSDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR
TO MAKING LANDFALL.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ESTIMATED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES...EARLIER THIS
EVENING.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...23.9 N...91.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
The games began in the 70’s with the arab embargo.
The last I heard it was headed for South Texas,,,as your map shows,,,It’s a good thing to pull most of the crews,,,
Too many have died in the past,,,
Does anyone have information about platforms in the 70’s, (Or at least Camille in ‘69) how they were affected by hurricanes, and the futures market? Just curious.
Gasoline has been at the lowest price all year here ($2.83). Time to fill up. I don’t use propane anymore so I don’t know what a cylinder costs anymore. I switched to my smoker grill and real hardwood charcoal.
I am now a "low and slow" Texas Rub aficionado.
Yum!
OK, so where is Doggone? Haven't seen him in months.
I always characterized “hurricane chasers” as trying to hunt an elephant in a phone booth. Risky business!
My mom has a place in Ormond Beach Florida but she fly’s back home when it get’s rough down there.
Tamaulipas bump
Looks like Shell is taking this one seriously. Watch what the others do on Wednesday.
Gasoline has been at the lowest price all year here ($2.83). Time to fill up. I don’t use propane anymore so I don’t know what a cylinder costs anymore. I switched to my smoker grill and real hardwood charcoal.
I am now a “low and slow” Texas Rub aficionado.
Yum!
~~~~~~~~~
From the looks of this they will all move out ,,,can’t afford to take the chance,,,
Roger Dat “low-n-slooo”...;0)
When I was a young girl, we used to stand on the seawall in Galveston and watch the storms come in. It was really exciting.
Good luck and stay dry!
There are some other wicked experimental models that put Dean right on us at Cat 5. Ain't even gonna post them.
I’m flying into San Antonio on Monday.
I hope I don’t have to deal with a hurricane!
People forget how often hurricanes affect this area.
It's funny. The History channel ran a show on the 1938 Hurricane which devastated Long Island and New England. I was shocked when the narrator claimed that the region had not seen a hurricane in almost 100 years. Actually, there was a Cat 1 in 1936 that grazed Long Island.
http://www.hurricanes-blizzards-noreasters.com/
bfl
Great links by the way!
From the maps above it should be gone by then,,,
Unless it stalls...
I’m hoping for sunshine!
Yes and yes.
I hate hurricanes.
Preparing for them is exhausting, cleaning up after them is horrible, and they kill people.
:-)
LOL,,,Roger Dat Sunshine...;0)
Oh, Camille! Now that was a hurricane, winds in excess of 200 mph. I was working in the Gulf south of NO when that bad Girl came to visit. Production platforms made it through fairly well, we had quarters on Breton Island. Day after the storm, we were back and had a number of individual wells damaged, many oil barges scattered and EVERYTHING on Breton Island was GONE. Don’t think we lost more than a week’s production.
This one will be a poot in whirlwind; a good dry run for the roughnecks and roustabouts. Dean is the one to watch out for.
Caution: Weather Porn,
THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DID FIND A SMALL CIRCULATION
CENTER...BUT IT WAS NOT QUITE WELL-ENOUGH DEFINED TO WARRANT A
FORMAL VORTEX MESSAGE. SINCE THAT TIME...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN
MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WITH
SOME EXPANSION OF THE CONVECTION SOUTHWESTWARD. BASED ON THIS
TREND...I AM PRESUMING THE CENTER HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
DEFINED AND ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/7. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE
RESPONDS TO THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH A FAIRLY STRAIGHT WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THERE IS CURRENTLY SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER
THE CYCLONE...AND GIVEN THE STRONG CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY...I EXPECT
SOME REFORMATION OR APPARENT NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS UNTIL THE CENTER BECOMES A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
FORECAST.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL NOT FAVORABLE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT...
BUT LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE PRESENT SHEARING PATTERN
WILL BE REPLACED BY A MORE FAVORABLE FLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS MOVES RAPIDLY OUT OF THE
WAY. THE BROAD CIRCULATION...LIMITED CONVECTION...AND LIMITED
UPPER-OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH ARGUE FOR ONLY
MODEST STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/0300Z 23.9N 91.1W 25 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 24.8N 92.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 25.9N 94.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 27.0N 96.4W 40 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 27.8N 98.6W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Yes, it looks like this one will be a bunch of rain and I’m all for that if it cools us off.
Dean who?
;-)
(During hurricane season I live in denial.)
BTTT
New York was hit by a hurricane in 1821.
1821: The only hurricane in modern times known to pass directly over parts of New York City pushed the tide up 13 feet in one hour and inundated wharves, causing the East River and the Hudson River to merge across lower Manhattan as far north as Canal Street. Deaths were limited since few lived there at the time.If that happened today, everything from Battery Park to SoHo would be flooded, including Wall Street.
I remember reading a story about an 1890's storm where, the precursor to Coney Island was sunk.
1893: A category 1 hurricane destroyed Hog Island, a resort island off the Rockaways in southern Queens.http://www.livescience.com/environment/050601_hurricane_1938.html
Saving New York From A Major Hurricane
The plan provides for the potential evacuation of up to three million residents and shelter for more than 600,000 people in the worst-case scenario of a major hurricane strike.Like I trust the city to evacuate 3 million people?!!
The word “hurricane” in that excerpt would have been useful.
If TD 5 forces more well shutdowns and keeps the rigs down for a few days then we can worry about Dean entering the Gulf in about 8 days. I would guess the platforms would -not- be re-manned in that scenario and would stay shutdown.
Hold on to your wallet.......
Pillow time....good night all.
I’ll update in the morning.
Zzzzzzzz.......
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/carib/gfs/00/index_pcp_s_loop.shtml
Maybe like Rita?
I wasn't on the coast for Camille, but I was commisioned to clean up that damn eratic Elana. :^)
Those “profits” go to retirement funds and the like. Are they crazy?
I’m glad for everybody who might be involved that it is moving so quickly. The ones that stall and just sit there and intensify really tend to drive you around the bend.
I'm hearing, btw, that the seawall is no longer thought to be enough to protect the island from a frontal onslaught .
Bumping for next advisory. thanks!
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
700 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2007
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM
FREEPORT SOUTHWARD...AND FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO
SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 700 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.0 WEST OR ABOUT
275 MILES...450 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT
310 MILES...500 KM...EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO.
THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
13 MPH. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
BE NEAR THE LOWER OR MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
DEPRESSION. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION...24.7 N...93.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
I suspect Shell might be concerned about avoiding loss of life. Those platforms aren’t on concrete foundations with pier-and-beam supports.
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